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Misc 2020/21 Fall and Winter Whamby Thread

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Rain Cold said:
I urged you to look at the nam and you called me a pessimist. Quit being a weiner
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Because that is the one you keep harping on and made a point to say that because I was being optimistic over what all the other models were showing. You were being snide and condescending.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Because that is the one you keep harping on and made a point to say that because I was being optimistic over what all the other models were showing. You were being snide and condescending.
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I made a point to tell you to look at the nam because as you know (and you do know this regardless of what you might say) that the bigger snow maps don't usually verify. I wasn't calling you names, I wasn't questioning your character, I wasn't playing space invaders. I was pointing out that you should look at the nam instead of hugging big snow. Or at least consider it, even though you want to throw it out because it looks bad. And then you called me a pessimist. So go boil an egg
 
Rain Cold said:
I made a point to tell you to look at the nam because as you know (and you do know this regardless of what you might say) that the bigger snow maps don't usually verify. I wasn't calling you names, I wasn't questioning your character, I wasn't playing space invaders. I was pointing out that you should look at the nam instead of hugging big snow. Or at least consider it, even though you want to throw it out because it looks bad. And then you called me a pessimist. So go boil an egg
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How about you just not tell me what to look at and I can decide for myself what to look at and be optimistic about it if I want. Why does it matter to you so much anyway? It's pretty and ridiculous. If I want to trust the other models versus what one model is showing and be optimistic about it, then why do you have to make a point in the first place to point out the NAM and tell me to forget what the others show?
 
Brick Tamland said:
How about you just not tell me what to look at and I can decide for myself what to look at and be optimistic about it if I want. Why does it matter to you so much anyway? It's pretty and ridiculous. If I want to trust the other models versus what one model is showing and be optimistic about it, then why do you have to make a point in the first place to point out the NAM and tell me to forget what the others show?
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It's a discussion forum. Discuss.
 
Something I do , and it isn’t for weak of heart is I read through the mid Atlantic board during threats . Why? Because it is in their best interest for it to snow so they will point out the things we don’t as it’s things that make it harder for us to snow . Give it a try if y’all ballsy enough lol.
 
Jeez Louise. You guys are zeroing in on a potential taste of winter many of us can only dream of. Try to enjoy it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Lickwx said:
Something I do , and it isn’t for weak of heart is I read through the mid Atlantic board during threats . Why? Because it is in their best interest for it to snow so they will point out the things we don’t as it’s things that make it harder for us to snow . Give it a try if y’all ballsy enough lol.
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I was reading there earlier during the 12z Euro. Read some fun reactions to the clown snow maps.

I actually think there's some good useful stuff in the MA board, but the problem is it gets drowned out by the other 80% of the posts on there. Especially the day before a big storm.
 
Everybody getting snow from the upcoming system better enjoy it for the short amount of time they have with it, because those cold fronts that should be bringing much cooler, fall-like-weather to our region are being negated by that Caribbean ridge that model trends are indicating to strengthen over the Gulf from the tropical Pacific to the SE Coast by early February. That's in addition to the warm waters that have completely surrounded the state of Florida, and seem to be pooling in large ares of 2-6 degrees F along the Gulf Stream and NW Atlantic. Conditions are similar to early last year with the drought, and we appear to be transitioning to a record-breaking warm regime like last spring. I actually think the drought conditions will expand northward into SE.

Those strong SSTs are going to fuel that January 1 storm for the NE (currently dumping on California). The storm track for February looks to keep storms arriving from SW and NW Pacific to the MW (and SE Canada/NE US), and then cool the western subtropical Atlantic while making its way towards the UK, Spain and NE Atlantic. I would be concerned about tornado season starting early and violently from NW TX to NW GA and N. to TN and S. MO. I think the best tornado conditions are going to occur between the areas that see drought that I mentioned above, and the areas of wet weather that are likely to occur in the Ohio Valley as the Caribbean/SE Ridge flexes up the East Coast. Unless some huge cold dome comes down to East, I'd say winter is over for people south of VA, WVA, and the mountains of TN and NC, and I'm starting to see chances take dive for areas in the Northern Mid Atlantic after the 2/1 storm.

Finally, the tropics. Last year I thought the ENSO would rapidly cool based on weather patterns in Florida, as I've notice that the the weather changes several months before the onset in Florida, and transitions via SST are seemingly more rapid than when I was a child (maybe I just didn't notice). This year, I'd argue that the notion of the ENSO transitioning to a weak El Nino to be utterly fanciful. One of the signs indicating a productive hurricane season that many weather-observant lifelong Floridians point to during the Early Spring months is the drought conditions, and I've found some validity to this idea (Scientific basis being that El Nino brings wet conditions to Florida).
 
Tornadocane said:
Everybody getting snow from the upcoming system better enjoy it for the short amount of time they have with it, because those cold fronts that should be bringing much cooler, fall-like-weather to our region are being negated by that Caribbean ridge that model trends are indicating to strengthen over the Gulf from the tropical Pacific to the SE Coast by early February. That's in addition to the warm waters that have completely surrounded the state of Florida, and seem to be pooling in large ares of 2-6 degrees F along the Gulf Stream and NW Atlantic. Conditions are similar to early last year with the drought, and we appear to be transitioning to a record-breaking warm regime like last spring. I actually think the drought conditions will expand northward into SE.

Those strong SSTs are going to fuel that January 1 storm for the NE (currently dumping on California). The storm track for February looks to keep storms arriving from SW and NW Pacific to the MW (and SE Canada/NE US), and then cool the western subtropical Atlantic while making its way towards the UK, Spain and NE Atlantic. I would be concerned about tornado season starting early and violently from NW TX to NW GA and N. to TN and S. MO. I think the best tornado conditions are going to occur between the areas that see drought that I mentioned above, and the areas of wet weather that are likely to occur in the Ohio Valley as the Caribbean/SE Ridge flexes up the East Coast. Unless some huge cold dome comes down to East, I'd say winter is over for people south of VA, WVA, and the mountains of TN and NC, and I'm starting to see chances take dive for areas in the Northern Mid Atlantic after the 2/1 storm.

Finally, the tropics. Last year I thought the ENSO would rapidly cool based on weather patterns in Florida, as I've notice that the the weather changes several months before the onset in Florida, and transitions via SST are seemingly more rapid than when I was a child (maybe I just didn't notice). This year, I'd argue that the notion of the ENSO transitioning to a weak El Nino to be utterly fanciful. One of the signs indicating a productive hurricane season that many weather-observant lifelong Floridians point to during the Early Spring months is the drought conditions, and I've found some validity to this idea (Scientific basis being that El Nino brings wet conditions to Florida).
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I think a warm spring is coming for us , like you said the Caribbean ridge is being suppressed south because of the NAO meaning the tropics are boiling ! So when the NAO goes away it will favor ridging across the east, and as models have hinted in the long range in the past it would favor the coastal southeast a lot with warm humid conditions .
 
Broken024 said:
Does this apply to my reference to him saving his neighbors
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Plus others, it's just over the top at this point. What I've seen so many times over the years, one person makes a comment then 2 and all of a sudden it's a free for all. We don't want that.
 
metwannabe said:
Guys, you want to disagree with him fine but the personal attacks need to stop. Consider this the public warning, come on really try not to sound like cyber bullies here.
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Ok. I get annoyed with the incessant whining and not knowing how to extrapolate data sets. It takes more than just looking at a snowfall estimate map. I’ll stop.
 
metwannabe said:
Plus others, it's just over the top at this point. What I've seen so many times over the years, one person makes a comment then 2 and all of a sudden it's a free for all. We don't want that.
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10-4 I'm just messing with him
 
YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
I'm actually more jealous you got 1.1'' in Oct than those totals since Dec. ?
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RDU has never recorded measurable snow in October since reliable records began, so I feel the same way. As for non-measurable snow, it's been over a century since even a trace was reported here during October. If Columbia SC can see snow on November 1, I'd say it's not impossible.
 
CyclonicFury said:
RDU has never recorded measurable snow in October since reliable records began, so I feel the same way. As for non-measurable snow, it's been over a century since even a trace was reported here during October. If Columbia SC can see snow on November 1, I'd say it's not impossible.
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IIRC, the setup of Hurricane Sandy wasn’t too far off from showing snow here back in 2012, and some models actually showed snow in the NC Piedmont in the lead up to it?
 
CyclonicFury said:
RDU has never recorded measurable snow in October since reliable records began, so I feel the same way. As for non-measurable snow, it's been over a century since even a trace was reported here during October. If Columbia SC can see snow on November 1, I'd say it's not impossible.
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Columbia got snow on Nov 1? lol

I actually saw a few flakes once in October. Not here, but in Danville VA on Halloween night in 93. It was one of those cold, miserable rains in the low/mid 30s. Then for about 5 minutes, the rain came down harder, and mixed in were some of the largest and wettest flakes you ever saw. For a brief moment--all of us thought it was going to changeover and we'd have a white Halloween! But of course it didn't, and it was back to rain, and all the trick or treeters were cold and shivering. I think Roanoke/Lynchburg might have got some white on the ground though.
 
YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
Columbia got snow on Nov 1? lol

I actually saw a few flakes once in October. Not here, but in Danville VA on Halloween night in 93. It was one of those cold, miserable rains in the low/mid 30s. Then for about 5 minutes, the rain came down harder, and mixed in were some of the largest and wettest flakes you ever saw. For a brief moment--all of us thought it was going to changeover and we'd have a white Halloween! But of course it didn't, and it was back to rain, and all the trick or treeters were cold and shivering. I think Roanoke/Lynchburg might have got some white on the ground though.
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Yep!!!


I remember it snowing and us getting a dusting in Greensboro around a decade ago on something like the 7th of November, so I imagine we could conceivably pull something like they off a week earlier, too. But it must be an incredibly rare event.
 
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