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Misc 2020/21 Fall and Winter Whamby Thread

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I'll take my chances. 2" or bust!
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Good news is the strat strengthens...violently. Maybe the blocking will subside...it sure ain't helping.


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You know things aren’t looking good when the HRRR and RPM models are being lauded.
 
Lickwx said:
You posted a model walled the WYFF . Bruh it’s literally called the wiff . That’s all you need to know bout it .
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I posted the HRRR. WYFF is a news station that showed a similarly unlikely scenario
 
Don't even know why we look at the models. Just can't trust them. Have to tell ourselves they can only show there is potential for a winter storm, and if everything comes together just right this is how much snow you COULD get.
 
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DopplerWx said:
every year we tell ourselves maybe this setup is different and then when the warm nose and nw trend snaps us to reality inside 72 hrs we melt down. tale as old as time.
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Consistency! No more than 18hours ago. "tHiS iS tHe BesT SeTuP eVeR, iF wE dOnT gEt A sToRm I qUiT" ....

*nah, no you dont. You'll be back next time even the local wx station model throws out 6 inches*
 
DopplerWx said:
every year we tell ourselves maybe this setup is different and then when the warm nose and nw trend snaps us to reality inside 72 hrs we melt down. tale as old as time.
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And everyone was wondering why I came across as such a debbie downer for this setup the last several days. Once I realized several days ago that most of the ascent was being forced by warm advection, I tuned out.
 
Ya know , I don’t mind some snow . Why not get some snow ? But the way some people have been weenien, and doing so rather self righteously while calling others who disagree out ... has me hoping for them to really get nothing but rain man. Ik ik that’s not cool . But it’s also not cool to discredit others posts without posting good arguments other than clown maps and talking about your gut which only feels messed up because of Taco Bell not because it’s telling you that it’s going to snow.

Sorry .
 
Webberweather53 said:
And everyone was wondering why I came across as such a debbie downer for this setup the last several days. Once I realized several days ago that most of the ascent was being forced by warm advection, I tuned out.
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Yeah, we appreciate it but damn this sucks when you look at this setup. What could have been.
 
KyloG said:
Yeah, we appreciate it but damn this sucks when you look at this setup. What could have been.
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Yep, we had any semblance of a snow pack to our north, N Pacific blocking in late Dec to drive some cold air into the pattern that we could have used here as leftovers, or just a little better luck synoptically we got something.
 
What is the point if even having the models when they show this and it turns out to be mostly rain?

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Brick Tamland said:
So, no point really.
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How is forecasting no point ? Things like snow maps , 2m maps etc are less useful than 500mb maps , 850 vorticity maps etc because of the more biased nature and struggle to translate synoptic to actual on the ground weather . It doesn’t take much to understand how to read all that and what is a good luck . Notice the more savvy posters are posting soundings rather than clown maps ?
 
SD said:
Models=guidance
Devil in details
This map assumes 10:1
Theres a lot of bad images being produced by these model sites
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Then why are they used? And why can't they be fixed to be better?
 
Lickwx said:
How is forecasting no point ? Things like snow maps , 2m maps etc are less useful than 500mb maps , 850 vorticity maps etc because of the more biased nature and struggle to translate synoptic to actual on the ground weather . It doesn’t take much to understand how to read all that and what is a good luck . Notice the more savvy posters are posting soundings rather than clown maps ?
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I was saying there is no point in the maps they produce.
 
Brick Tamland said:
So, no point really.
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The map itself is fine bc it assumes a 10:1 ratio. The use of the map is incorrect. A quick look at any sounding says many of these areas even if they were to miraculously to pull that much qpf as snow would more likely see 5-7:1 ratios. Add in a generally above freezing sfc and you get these totals are well above reality
 
SD said:
The map itself is fine bc it assumes a 10:1 ratio. The use of the map is incorrect. A quick look at any sounding says many of these areas even if they were to miraculously to pull that much qpf as snow would more likely see 5-7:1 ratios. Add in a generally above freezing sfc and you get these totals are well above reality
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So, what's the point in even having the maps if they are wrong? Why can't they be fixed to show reality?
 
Brick Tamland said:
So, what's the point in even having the maps if they are wrong? Why can't they be fixed to show reality?
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Well that's why I suggested you look at snow depth here, it's obviously not perfect either but way superior to any snow ratio clown map you'll see. This map only shows the 10:1 ratio snow falling from the sky. Off the top, take out like 30-40% of that, then cut that in half again to account for sleet, then an additional inch or so of liquid equivalent to include melting as the snow is heated by the warm ground from below and above via above freezing sfc temps. At the end, you're left with almost next to nothing which is what the NAM snow depth output shows.

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Webberweather53 said:
Well that's why I suggested you look at snow depth here, it's obviously not perfect either but way superior to any snow ratio clown map you'll see. This map only shows the 10:1 ratio snow falling from the sky. Off the top, take out like 30-40% of that, then cut that in half again to account for sleet, then an additional inch or so of liquid equivalent to include melting as the snow is heated by the warm ground from below and above via above freezing sfc temps. At the end, you're left with almost next to nothing which is what the NAM snow depth output shows.

View attachment 63453
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Maybe from now on this should be the only map posted if all the other ones are usually way overdone. I just don't see the point of even looking at them if they can't be trusted to be correct.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Maybe from now on this should be the only map posted if all the other ones are usually way overdone. I just don't see the point of even looking at them if they can't be trusted to be correct.
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Use logic and deductive reasoning for a second. In places like Minnesota, Colorado, places that get substantial snowfall, etc, those maps would be more accurate on a regular basis because they wouldn’t be dealing with WAA, warm ground temps, or mixing issues anywhere near as often.
 
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