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Misc 2020/21 Fall and Winter Whamby Thread

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Brick Tamland said:
So, what's the point in even having the maps if they are wrong? Why can't they be fixed to show reality?
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Again the map itself isn't wrong, it's a map that assumes a 10:1 ratio, it's correct. What's wrong is these get circulated around weather boards and social media with no disclaimer that our ratios aren't going to be 10:1. If you look at the Kuchera map on pivotal it's less and the kuchera ratio for most of the region when it is snowing is 6-7-8 so the 10:1 map is already overdone.

I also believe these are snowFALL maps and not accumulation, so they are basically saying in a perfect 10:1 ratio world you will see this amount of snow fall from the sky, its not taking into account sfc/ground temps/ratios to determine an accumulation.
 
SD said:
Again the map itself isn't wrong, it's a map that assumes a 10:1 ratio, it's correct. What's wrong is these get circulated around weather boards and social media with no disclaimer that our ratios aren't going to be 10:1. If you look at the Kuchera map on pivotal it's less and the kuchera ratio for most of the region when it is snowing is 6-7-8 so the 10:1 map is already overdone.

I also believe these are snowFALL maps and not accumulation, so they are basically saying in a perfect 10:1 ratio world you will see this amount of snow fall from the sky, its not taking into account sfc/ground temps/ratios to determine an accumulation.
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Honestly this is why click-bait works, people see a headline or a pretty picture and don't pay any attention to the details, leads to all kinds of misinformation spreading like wildfire.
 
Broken record, but venting is venting. We are in freaking January and being NW of a LP still yeilds rain. Yeah, these aint the 70s and 80s no more.
 
So we still on for the polar vortex of death at mid month, yes? Or did we fail that like this snowstorm?
 
Avalanche said:
Broken record, but venting is venting. We are in freaking January and being NW of a LP still yeilds rain. Yeah, these aint the 70s and 80s no more.
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Yeah, at 120 hours the surface boundary layer just isn't cold enough. This won't work. everything must be perfect these days. Cold rain for most. I'm throwing in the towel. It's easy since I saw light snow on 12/24/2020. Looking for a chance to chase in the Chattanooga area.

You would need some dynamic cooling, lower dew points, a source of low level cold (wedge), but none of those are showing up. The dynamic cooling would create a warm nose over me (stronger low pressure), so I don't want that...it's just not going to work.
 
Avalanche said:
Broken record, but venting is venting. We are in freaking January and being NW of a LP still yeilds rain. Yeah, these aint the 70s and 80s no more.
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TBH, though, the mean surface low track for a major winter storm in the Triangle is quite a bit offshore, so this is far from an optimal track for us.
 
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