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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

Robert West said:
Welp, it's looking like after this dumb cold air chasing moisture crap gets through. That may be our last chance for a while. Good ole cold and dry settles in. This is getting old... Mother Nature looks lost out there and these models are just as lost looking like a freakin seismograph with all the ups and downs they keep fooling us with.
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I had really hoped the initial weekend system was going to do the whole NW turn, and it's getting closer, but I'm not too confident we will see much around our area. I bet if we did, it'd be rain the way things look anyways.

The frontal passage.. we fight with the apps to get the cold air in here.. cold chasing moisture is never a good thing. I had hoped the FV3 and Canadian were starting to see something nice last night at 00z for us. Of course, that has reversed to a Euro like solution now.
 
90% this 29-30 event dries up on the southern end and it becomes just a run of the mill arctic frontal passage
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
90% this 29-30 event dries up on the southern end and it becomes just a run of the mill arctic frontal passage
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What is starting to worry me for those to our West, that the Euro (that continues to dry it up quickly) is the more correct solution.. and it's just not enough moisture to saturate and even precipitate. :(
 
Shawn said:
I had really hoped the initial weekend system was going to do the whole NW turn, and it's getting closer, but I'm not too confident we will see much around our area. I bet if we did, it'd be rain the way things look anyways.

The frontal passage.. we fight with the apps to get the cold air in here.. cold chasing moisture is never a good thing. I had hoped the FV3 and Canadian were starting to see something nice last night at 00z for us. Of course, that has reversed to a Euro like solution now.
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Yeh, you know as well as I do that we need literally all the help we can get here. Feb 12 will mark the 5 year mark. We’ve went longer, but this stretch has seemed the longest in my 27 years of living. Last year was awful as far as missing in all directions. The frontal passage, we saw what mid Jan of last year gave us. Most short range models gave us a inch, we couldn’t even muster that up. Just beginning to get frustrating.
 
Robert West said:
Yeh, you know as well as I do that we need literally all the help we can get here. Feb 12 will mark the 5 year mark. We’ve went longer, but this stretch has seemed the longest in my 27 years of living. Last year was awful as far as missing in all directions. The frontal passage, we saw what mid Jan of last year gave us. Most short range models gave us a inch, we couldn’t even muster that up. Just beginning to get frustrating.
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A friend and I did a test yesterday for the rain event that came through. I blended the 12z models and the 19z HRRR together and came up with 1.325 inches of rain in CAE.

Here are the numbers I marked down:

CAE.
12z GFS: 1.4
12z Euro/EPS 1.0
12z NAM: 0.5
19z HRRR: 2.4
MEAN: 1.325

OFFICIAL: 1.1

As you can see, the Euro did the best job, once again. The short range HRRR was absolutley atrocious. Good to know for future events...
Edit: I would like to note that NWS CAE had forecasted 1.1 in their official forecast on last check around the time I grabbed all the numbers.
 
Shawn said:
A friend and I did a test yesterday for the rain event that came through. I blended the 12z models and the 19z HRRR together and came up with 1.325 inches of rain in CAE.

Here are the numbers I marked down:

CAE.
12z GFS: 1.4
12z Euro/EPS 1.0
12z NAM: 0.5
19z HRRR: 2.4
MEAN: 1.325

OFFICIAL: 1.1

As you can see, the Euro did the best job, once again. The short range HRRR was absolutley atrocious. Good to know for future events...
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Thank you. Picked up 1.18 at my location.
 
Ha I just looked at the 12z GFS for yesterday out of curiosity and it said 1.5-1.75 for the rain event I think? (don't really want to pull the exact but I can) Actually had 1.65".

Edit: I was off by a color. Totals predicted were 1.4-1.5 in county. What I got was 1.65", the official station had 1.84".
 
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Rain Cold said:
Way too high around here. If there’s any moisture at all, it will be rain, possibly mixing with a few wet snowflakes for the last 5-10 minutes.
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somebody’s feeling optimistic this afternoon! I’ll be very surprised if this thing doesn’t dry out for the entire board
 
#BACkLOADED
 
Highs in the teens in RAH next Thursday!?? Seen this show before!! It’ll verify in the 30s Atleast! Models are horrible
 
tenor.gif


The rest of "winter" in one gif.
 
I am not looking forward to highs in the single digits next week. How can anyone find that enjoyable ? I am so ready to start seeing flowers blooming.
 
Not horrible, but if we could just shift everything west, say about 2000 miles we'd be gold! That WAR will. not. go. away. We'll get ridging over greenland, but I seriously doubt we get a true -NAO this winter with lower heights in SE canada. Persistence forecast.

1548352941547.png
 
There’s a blue bird perched outside my kitchen window chirping as loud as can be. That tells me no snow for the foreseeable future. Joy
 
Us NC folks will have to wait until later in Feb for a chance. Nice to see TN/AL/GA get there’s.
 
Kylo said:
Us NC folks will have to wait until later in Feb for a chance. Nice to see TN/AL/GA get there’s.
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TN and AL but I still think GA needs to wait and see, still might just be passing Flurries but I can say it’s trending better.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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