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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

Euro is going to bring the noise for mby tonight! Only problem is it’s going to sound a lot like the noise water makes as it flows freely through a clean set of gutters
 
The failboat has launched for this weekends storm! Not many changes coming with 3 days till start time! Euro and GFS say congrats HKY to Greensboro maybe, everybody else , cold rain! Maybe when the pattern change sets up?? SMDH
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Euro is going to bring the noise for mby tonight! Only problem is it’s going to sound a lot like the noise water makes as it flows freely through a clean set of gutters
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You should be used to that sound by now!
 
Tarheel1 said:
The failboat has launched for this weekends storm! Not many changes coming with 3 days till start time! Euro and GFS say congrats HKY to Greensboro maybe, everybody else , cold rain! Maybe when the pattern change sets up?? SMDH
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It's like you live in South Carolina or something, CRAZY!!
 
IBM announced that they will be introducing the world’s highest-resolution global weather forecasting model later in 2019--the IBM Global High-Resolution Atmospheric Forecasting System (GRAF). The model will be the first hourly-updating weather model that is able to predict something as small as a thunderstorm virtually anywhere on the planet.
The current top global forecasting models, the European (ECMWF) model and the U.S. GFS model, subdivide the global atmosphere into grid boxes that average 9 kilometers and 13 kilometers on a side, respectively, then solve the mathematical equations of atmospheric flow to generate a forecast for each of those grid cells. The new GRAF model employs a variable-resolution grid, resembling a honeycomb, that can be configured with higher resolution over areas of particular interest (Figure 1). Over land areas, the GRAF grid elements will have average resolutions of 3 km, which is about 3 - 4 times greater than the European and GFS models.
 
I guess a pattern change to normal, is a pattern change, but not what most were hoping for or wanting!? Maybe we get some below normal temps in Feb?DC523CA1-E0C8-49DD-8ED9-DB08BD9BD72A.png
 
Tarheel1 said:
Plenty of time to come South! The shortwave hasn’t even been sampled yet!
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“Global models struggle with CAD. We will have a better idea when the 84hr NAM comes into range and shows a wedge down into Charleston SC”
 
Tarheel1 said:
I guess a pattern change to normal, is a pattern change, but not what most were hoping for or wanting!? Maybe we get some below normal temps in Feb?View attachment 10371
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That’s literally the same forecast every day. ---- forecast. The weekend weather goober over at Fox Carolina could put out a better forecast than that
 
I wouldn't buy any hype considering how wrong all the forecasts have been thus far. Though there haven't been extremes the past 40 days or so, it has been excessively warm over the average.
 
Tarheel1 said:
The failboat has launched for this weekends storm! Not many changes coming with 3 days till start time! Euro and GFS say congrats HKY to Greensboro maybe, everybody else , cold rain! Maybe when the pattern change sets up?? SMDH
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418E94DD-81A9-417E-BB2E-BFA5F2D9DCA9.jpeg
@Rain Cold theres still room on board. No weenie left behind
 
Tarheel1 said:
I guess a pattern change to normal, is a pattern change, but not what most were hoping for or wanting!? Maybe we get some below normal temps in Feb?View attachment 10371
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I mean that is well above average for your area, if it were to verify.
 
Snowed In said:
IBM announced that they will be introducing the world’s highest-resolution global weather forecasting model later in 2019--the IBM Global High-Resolution Atmospheric Forecasting System (GRAF). The model will be the first hourly-updating weather model that is able to predict something as small as a thunderstorm virtually anywhere on the planet.
The current top global forecasting models, the European (ECMWF) model and the U.S. GFS model, subdivide the global atmosphere into grid boxes that average 9 kilometers and 13 kilometers on a side, respectively, then solve the mathematical equations of atmospheric flow to generate a forecast for each of those grid cells. The new GRAF model employs a variable-resolution grid, resembling a honeycomb, that can be configured with higher resolution over areas of particular interest (Figure 1). Over land areas, the GRAF grid elements will have average resolutions of 3 km, which is about 3 - 4 times greater than the European and GFS models.
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Wow! When does this go into operation? Another model to follow.
 
Yeah, this weekends thing may trend colder, more ice sure. My thing is it's trended to a clear amped Miller B over the last couple days (not just overnight). And the cad is just not that impressive to me. Therefore I'm just not that in to it for mby. It's not her, or it, it's just me. It's my fault. :). We're breaking up, lol.

Long range, I'd really like to get the weeklies look back on the ensembles. May be there on the EPS I don't know, the GEFS has turned weak sauce on the blocking long range. I don't want to break up with yesterdays ensemble runs.
 
weatherfide said:
Yep! Winter 2018-2019 for Atlanta is setting sail! Spring starts 2/14/2019. Nothing but normal to above normal, then summer!
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Below normal after Valentines Day in Atlanta usually means highs in the 40s and low 50s. Pretty darn hard to get bitterly cold air in the DEEP south as we head towards March. Plus if it does happen to snow late in Feb, it usually melts within a day. If its going to snow, i want it to stick for at least a week.
 
Kylo said:
What’s changed since yesterday? Models look mostly the same.
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Webb explained it a bit in the other thread to me, but look at the trend of the western ridge and the greenland ridge on the GEFS. All significantly muted. It could totally turn back around tomorrow, but simply put I thought that was a step back on overnight models. Don't think that's a reach to say that.
 

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So my house's heat pump had auxiliary heat come on with it in the 40s and 50s outside this morning, based off a little research online, I guess it could well be broken again (as it has been before). It still hasn't stopped since I came to from deep sleep close to 9:00.

On another note, All hail that Euro Control. LOL. I'd be satisfied for at least a year after that IF that crazy stuff would actually become true.
 
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