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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

ForsythSnow said:
Honestly I don't even know why we started this early. Last time we did over a week it faded away and became a mess. In addition it's not going to do us any good.
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I started it because people were begging for it. Not sure we have any written rules over when to start it but it would be nice to have it written out. That way everyone would know not to ask before said time...


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whatalife said:
I started it because people were begging for it. Not sure we have any written rules over when to start it but it would be nice to have it written out. That way everyone would know not to ask before said time...
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When there is support from almost every model on multiple runs of both the deterministic and ensembles for a significant event, a thread should be considered. When almost every post in the monthly thread is model analysis of the potential threat, a storm thread is warranted in my opinion. These things usually happen in the 5-7 day period with the more significant storms. The December storm thread was started even earlier if I remember correctly. If the storm produces for some, that's great. If it doesn't, then there is a dedicated thread we can use to dissect what went wrong. It will be easier to find when someone wants to research it.
 
NoSnowATL said:
3-4 days out seems reasonable.


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When the nam kicks in?? Lol

It’s fine to start it today. Models won’t just lose this thing. It might end up not cold enough or something like that, but I doubt it vanishes. The upper SE has strong support on multiple ensemble suites.


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Jon said:
When the nam kicks in?? Lol

It’s fine to start it today. Models won’t just lose this thing. It might end up not cold enough or something like that, but I doubt it vanishes. The upper SE has strong support on multiple ensemble suites.


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You mean “ Mid South” haha


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Man I hope areas that didn't get snow further south and west have a chance this time and not just the same areas as last time....
 
This was a great decision to go ahead and start a separate thread because this threat was beginning to dominate the Jan thread thanks to rapidly increasing model support for at least a threat. Once that happens to a monthly thread and we’re within a week, I think it is the best decision. What’s the big harm if it doesn’t materialize? One extra archived thread? At least the Jammin’ Jan thread will be less jammed than would otherwise be the case for those looking back at the Jan thread in the future.
 
First it was punting this same time period saying it’s going to torch and no snow chances/cancel January. Now it’s punting the storm after a thread is started. Let’s just be glad we have something to track after the way Jan has started....


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packfan98 said:
When there is support from almost every model on multiple runs of both the deterministic and ensembles for a significant event, a thread should be considered. When almost every post in the monthly thread is model analysis of the potential threat, a storm thread is warranted in my opinion. These things usually happen in the 5-7 day period with the more significant storms. The December storm thread was started even earlier if I remember correctly. If the storm produces for some, that's great. If it doesn't, then there is a dedicated thread we can use to dissect what went wrong. It will be easier to find when someone wants to research it.
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I agree with what you are saying and I definitely agree with not cluttering the January thread up with one certain storm.


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NoSnowATL said:
It was sarcasm. I hope y’all guys score. Good luck.


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Thanks. I feel for you and this probably won’t be the system, but with the blocking showing up I bet ATL’s time will come in Feb! Gotta stay hopeful.


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Jon said:
Thanks. I feel for you and this probably won’t be the system, but with the blocking showing up I bet ATL’s time will come in Feb! Gotta stay hopeful.


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I’m just glad we can track something, I don’t expect snow every year but it’s just as fun tracking it. Hell I would start a threat 2 weeks out if I could. All good man.


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whatalife said:
Because it’s the one thing we can get right (not). LOL


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Lol I mean I can see not starting threads for 10 day threats. We’d have about a thousand threads. But if the pattern supports something and you have broad model agreement, 5-7 days out should be fine.
 
Rain Cold said:
Lol I mean I can see not starting threads for 10 day threats. We’d have about a thousand threads. But if the pattern supports something and you have broad model agreement, 5-7 days out should be fine.
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I think it’s fine, if you look at who is questioning it” guilty” we are on the outside looking in as always. If it was showing more positive in the Deeper south I’m sure it wouldn’t have came up. I think most of it is just giving people a hard time but in a friendly way.


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