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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

metwannabe

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I haven't gone back through and read much of the January thread so someone may have posted it.... but did y'all see this gem? Lol at the 4" island over NC, @SD @Rain Cold @Brick Tamland @packfan98 y'all could chase, should make for an interesting meeting ;):D

snku_acc.us_ma.png
 

Rain Cold

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NWTENN

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The models have backed off on the severity of the cold for the 1/20-21 time frame. Its still going to be our coldest air of the season, but my local NWS (Memphis) has revised temps upward almost 10 degrees since yesterday. I don't know what the next 2-3 weeks hold, but anyone is foolish to get disappointed or let down when an extreme weather event doesn't unfold as modeled 10 days out. Or even 7 days out. We live in the south. There have been some really extreme looks on operational runs and even on some ENS runs lately for severe cold in the next couple of weeks. Can it reach sub zero in the south? Of course. is it likely in any given season? Not at all. Not even when the models are showing it on day 12. They frequently moderate. Modeling winter weather is so difficult in the south because it's almost always a close call. Just sayin we'd all do well to NEVER, EVER get our hopes up on any particular storm beyond about 5 days. Otherwise, you're going to be whining. Life's pretty good when we have time to be on an internet forum complaining that it didn't snow at my house.
 

Kylo

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Lol there ain't no way we're spending any appreciable MJO time this winter over on the left side there. We're going to have to find another way to score. Maybe an unexpected pole shift or a quick Yellowstone eruption.

Your MJO post from a couple of days ago should be pinned. Because come March we are going to look back and ask how did it go so wrong. Unfavorable tropics/pacific usually rule.

Though totally expect to see snow again mid/late Feb, weenie wishing the MJO continues on to 7-8-1.
 

Rain Cold

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The models have backed off on the severity of the cold for the 1/20-21 time frame. Its still going to be our coldest air of the season, but my local NWS (Memphis) has revised temps upward almost 10 degrees since yesterday. I don't know what the next 2-3 weeks hold, but anyone is foolish to get disappointed or let down when an extreme weather event doesn't unfold as modeled 10 days out. Or even 7 days out. We live in the south. There have been some really extreme looks on operational runs and even on some ENS runs lately for severe cold in the next couple of weeks. Can it reach sub zero in the south? Of course. is it likely in any given season? Not at all. Not even when the models are showing it on day 12. They frequently moderate. Modeling winter weather is so difficult in the south because it's almost always a close call. Just sayin we'd all do well to NEVER, EVER get our hopes up on any particular storm beyond about 5 days. Otherwise, you're going to be whining. Life's pretty good when we have time to be on an internet forum complaining that it didn't snow at my house.
Good post!

I wish models had a warm bias in the extended. But they don't. You see far more historic cold patterns that don't pan out than warm patterns that don't pan out. You can show me all kinds of pretty ensembles, SSW charts, solar progs, indexes of choice, MJOs, operational models, whatever that are in 100% agreement with the coldest weather ever, and I will take the opposite bet and win 99.9% of the time. It's just the way it works.

It's going to get cold. Historically so, I really doubt it. But hopefully it is enough to allow the things that give us snow to combine to do so. I think it will happen, but I don't think eastern sections of the SE will see much of anything before Feb. I could be wrong, but that's my prediction.
 

SD

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I'm having serious thoughts about packing my ---- up and going home from work and never coming back. Im working 7am-1030/11 pm and not sleeping bc i am so stressed. Its not worth it

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Tagat

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WINTER STORMS CANCELED!!! I am with Brick dagnabit!!! How dare the Ensembles runs show snow 6 7 8+ days and take them away and change them to rain. I Couldn't care less about Pattern changing or Ensembles showing a snow storm to track 9 10+ days out only to turn them to rain as they get closer and then show more winter storms for the next week and repeat.

Kicking the Can down the Road. These models can not be consistent more than 6 hours at a time. Now, Now you gonna tell me just wait the pattern is starting to settle in and come Fab Feb we are all gonna get buried.

BULL HONKY!!! when that cold air does finally show up you gonna tell me it surpressing the southern flow to Cuba.

Well I Say NO THANK YOU SIR!!! NO Thank you. I am official canceling WINTER STORMS IN THE SOUTH EAST. NO Snow For You. Nothing to see here just go home.....
 

Rain Cold

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I'm having serious thoughts about packing my poop up and going home from work and never coming back. Im working 7am-1030/11 pm and not sleeping bc i am so stressed. Its not worth it

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Do you at least get time and a half?
 

metwannabe

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I'm having serious thoughts about packing my poop up and going home from work and never coming back. Im working 7am-1030/11 pm and not sleeping bc i am so stressed. Its not worth it

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Man that's brutal right there..... I got nothing. I feel like I should say "don't do it, you'll regret it, it's not worth that" but ummm if I were in your shoes. Idk that sucks right there.
 

Jimmy Hypocracy

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Lol there ain't no way we're spending any appreciable MJO time this winter over on the left side there. We're going to have to find another way to score. Maybe an unexpected pole shift or a quick Yellowstone eruption.
I read an article last year about Antarctic meteor smoke teleconnections. That will save us. Big boom incoming at 12z..or maybe that’s a thud. Not sure yet
 

Rain Cold

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I read an article last year about Antarctic meteor smoke teleconnections. That will save us. Big boom incoming at 12z..or maybe that’s a thud. Not sure yet
I'm expecting a turn-around in the Ops in the next day or so. We're going to start seeing winter storms showing up.

Maybe this post belongs in the Banter thread? :D
 

packfan98

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WINTER STORMS CANCELED!!! I am with Brick dagnabit!!! How dare the Ensembles runs show snow 6 7 8+ days and take them away and change them to rain. I Couldn't care less about Pattern changing or Ensembles showing a snow storm to track 9 10+ days out only to turn them to rain as they get closer and then show more winter storms for the next week and repeat.

Kicking the Can down the Road. These models can not be consistent more than 6 hours at a time. Now, Now you gonna tell me just wait the pattern is starting to settle in and come Fab Feb we are all gonna get buried.

BULL HONKY!!! when that cold air does finally show up you gonna tell me it surpressing the southern flow to Cuba.

Well I Say NO THANK YOU SIR!!! NO Thank you. I am official canceling WINTER STORMS IN THE SOUTH EAST. NO Snow For You. Nothing to see here just go home.....
Take notes! This is the proper way to make a “Whambulance Chaser” post!
 

NWTENN

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Good post!

I wish models had a warm bias in the extended. But they don't. You see far more historic cold patterns that don't pan out than warm patterns that don't pan out. You can show me all kinds of pretty ensembles, SSW charts, solar progs, indexes of choice, MJOs, operational models, whatever that are in 100% agreement with the coldest weather ever, and I will take the opposite bet and win 99.9% of the time. It's just the way it works.

It's going to get cold. Historically so, I really doubt it. But hopefully it is enough to allow the things that give us snow to combine to do so. I think it will happen, but I don't think eastern sections of the SE will see much of anything before Feb. I could be wrong, but that's my prediction.
Yes. Historically cold? I haven't really seen anything predicting that, but even if the models were onto something "historical," I'm never going to be the guy who goes to work, church, and home telling everybody about it... chances are always going to be in climatology's favor.... always. We all like the extremes, but that's not how the atmosphere works, and atmospheric forces could NOT care less what we are wishing for.
 

ForsythSnow

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If anyone would like to buy the board we will take offers . I’m about to go crazy reading the same complaining posts ten times a day


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I might just pull out the big delete button today to save some of your sanity LOL. Or lock the Jan thread after each run. :p
 

accu35

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I'm having serious thoughts about packing my poop up and going home from work and never coming back. Im working 7am-1030/11 pm and not sleeping bc i am so stressed. Its not worth it

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I know the feeling, my job has me working so much overtime that it takes away from family time and becomes stressful at times. I to also am promise a further up in the company by next month, so will see what happens. I hope my hard work and yours will pay off, if not than it's not worth it..Money isn't everything when it comes to happiness
 
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