Pitching has got to get better. Our best pitcher is a 21 year old kid.
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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation
- Thread starter whatalife
- Start date
I'm actually not sure that he will...not if he continues to put blue anomalies over the SE.
pcbjr
Member
pcbjr
Member
^^^
Modern forecast tool (the "Pioneer Model") in all its unveiled glory ...
Modern forecast tool (the "Pioneer Model") in all its unveiled glory ...
Cad Wedge NC
Member
That "8-ball" forecast is just about as good as any.
JB said in his Saturday summary that this winter should be a dandy. #wearescrewed
He's looking at the DJF CFSV2, which like all of the major models is cold biased. SMH. But a cold bias in a model is something he typically ignores. I wonder why.
For those who don't know, he has energy clients. Keep that in mind.
I'm expecting a mild winter. Until the relative warmth in the Atlantic offshore the SE disappears, that is easily the smart call imo. The SER will continue to dominate. I don't care much because even the mildest winter is far better than the coolest summer.
Maybe he'll finally predict a very mild E US winter at some point and get it right. That would be fantastic to see.
If anyone disagrees with this forecast for a mild winter, please tell me why you disagree.
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Wouldn't that be unusual to have a strong SER for 2 winters in a row? Not sure what the normal duration of warm water off the coast is but hoping that changes enough to make a difference.He's looking at the DJF CFSV2, which like all of the major models is cold biased. SMH. But a cold bias in a model is something he typically ignores. I wonder why.
For those who don't know, he has energy clients. Keep that in mind.
I'm expecting a mild winter. Until the relative warmth in the Atlantic offshore the SE disappears, that is easily the smart call imo. The SER will continue to dominate. I don't care much because even the mildest winter is far better than the coolest summer.
Maybe he'll finally predict a very mild E US winter at some point and get it right. That would be fantastic to see.
If anyone disagrees with this forecast for a mild winter, please tell me why you disagree.
- The SER dominated 1988-9, 1989-90, and 1990-1. So, three in a row then.
- The SER dominated 2017-8 and 2018-9. Look for three in a row SER winters once again with 2019-20. Then maybe it breaks down in time for 2020-1.
Going back to 1878-79, KATL has had only 2 stretches of 4 mild winters in a row:
- 1988-9, 1989-0, 1990-1, and 1991-2
- 2015-6, 2016-7, 2017-8, and 2018-9
I predict that 2019-20 will bring KATL to 5 mild winters in a row for the first time on record. The trend is your friend. Then I look for 2020-1 to break the mild string.
Does anyone know the last time JB predicted a mild SE winter? I assume he missed all of the last 4 mild SE winters and 2019-20 will join in as
another JB bust.
**Edited for typo.
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Cad Wedge NC
Member
I am going with a colder than normal December for MBY and above normal for the remainder of winter. Front loaded winters seem to be the theme lately. Also, if you remember, 1989 had a very cold outbreak in December
pcbjr
Member
Like the analysis and the time obviously devoted to preparing it ... not liking the conclusion in particular (but it's likely correct, as per usual) ...
This winter is going to be the coldest winter since 2009/10! I saw a hummingbird with a bee in its bill! The animals know!He's looking at the DJF CFSV2, which like all of the major models is cold biased. SMH. But a cold bias in a model is something he typically ignores. I wonder why.
For those who don't know, he has energy clients. Keep that in mind.
I'm expecting a mild winter. Until the relative warmth in the Atlantic offshore the SE disappears, that is easily the smart call imo. The SER will continue to dominate. I don't care much because even the mildest winter is far better than the coolest summer.
Maybe he'll finally predict a very mild E US winter at some point and get it right. That would be fantastic to see.
If anyone disagrees with this forecast for a mild winter, please tell me why you disagree.
I'm surprised 2017-18 was mentioned. Didn't seem nearly as bad as last year to me.
I remember very well as Dec of the 1989-90 winter had an historic SE coastal snowstorm. So, even with a mild winter, one big winter storm still occurred. That was also the case in 1990-1 when GSP got a major snow in Jan and in 1991-2 when BMX, ATL and others got the major Jan snow. SAV, GSP, RDU, and others also got anywhere from a nice to huge snow in the winter of 1988-9 in Feb. Also, what about the big Carolina snows of Jan in both of 2015-6 and 2016-7? And nobody should forget the 3 big storms of 2017-8 as well as the big Carolinas snow of 2018-9 in Dec.
In summary, EVERY one of these 8 mild SE winters had at least one major snow in portions of the SE. GSP and NC were most favored not surprisingly.
Bottom line: wintry precip. is much less forecastable than average winter temps. I'm not saying mild winters mean better wintry precip chances though.
pcbjr
Member
Beats the heck out of a bee with a humming bird in its mouth ... that could portend something better left unposted ... unless you want to speculate on the Broad River becoming a 2019 glacier ...
The reasons:
- That winter averaged mild overall strictly because Feb was the warmest on record. The combo of DJ averaged close to normal
- There were 3 big winter storms that winter in DJ.
Snow is a bigger part of winter to me than long duration cold. I scored that winter an A because of the December storm and light snow we saw in January 2018 as well.
Brent
Member
6 months til Christmas yall
and yes, snow makes the winter for me, long duration dry cold doesn't do much for me, its why largely these last few years have been trash here
and yes, snow makes the winter for me, long duration dry cold doesn't do much for me, its why largely these last few years have been trash here
Srry was completely wasted yesterday and didn’t follow the severe threat like I normally would
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Nothing out of the ordinary there...
