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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

I new when Webber’s meter inched to a 3, we were toast! Mines at 1/16th, for rest of winter
 
Jon said:
I don’t think it’s the website problem itself. The FV3 counts all frozen precipitation as snow. It’s up to websites to adjust that output post-processing with an additional algorithm to realistic outcomes if they’d like. You can see on the NOAA site on the snow depth change that the fake snow is a problem with the FV3 and not TT. TT adds **includes sleet** at the top of the snowfall image to keep people in check.


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The above isn’t sctuslly true, the precipitation would not be sleet or ZR on the FV3 but actually just plain rain if you look at the 850 temps. What’s really happening here is anywhere on the model where the surface temp is 32F or below wintry precipitation is assumed to have fallen.
 
When was the last time RDU went all of January and February without a single snowflake? It's possible the only snow we have seen all winter was from the early December storm.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The above isn’t sctuslly true, the precipitation would not be sleet or ZR on the FV3 but actually just plain rain if you look at the 850 temps. What’s really happening here is anywhere on the model where the surface temp is 32F or below wintry precipitation is assumed to have fallen.
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I was saying what TT does to try to mitigate the issue. I saw Ryan Maues tweets about the cold bias and 2m issue on the FV3. Mostly just saying the model itself is wrong, not the algorithm on TT.


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KBHM_2019021400_eps_min_max_15-600x300.png

Works now. Thanks. EPS says no winter for you at least through the end of Fab Feb for B'ham
 
Jon said:
I was saying what TT does to try to mitigate the issue. I saw Ryan Maues tweets about the cold bias and 2m issue on the FV3. Mostly just saying the model itself is wrong, not the algorithm on TT.


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I know that lol I'm saying though that what TT does actually isn't assuming that what's on those snow maps is sleet/ZR like you mentioned earlier, it's completely different from other NWP models & an even crappier assumption!
 
Contest!

When will I85 areas get their next snow?

I’m going with January 2021. I think next year is a strong Niño and only WNC will see see snow in the Carolinas. Everyone else in the Carolinas gets shut out. Trace for Raleigh to Greensboro. We are entering a new age of suck. Embrace it
 
Webberweather53 said:
I know that lol I'm saying though that what TT does actually isn't assuming that what's on those snow maps is sleet/ZR like you mentioned earlier, it's completely different from other NWP models & an even crappier assumption!
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Oh ok. Yeah. I’m hoping we get rid of fantasy snow outputs for good eventually. I’m not sure how hard it can be, and I know snowfall algorithms have pros and cons, so it’s usually hard to pick just one and go with it. I look at several in bufkit when it’s time to forecast...wish the model sites would use a strict algorithm.


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wait til February they said

I'm so glad its half over after today :rolleyes:

Much warmer than average temperatures can be expected today as
breezy southwesterly winds and mostly clear skies allow for
efficient warming throughout the day. In fact, if the high
temperature reaches 80 degrees at DFW airport, this would tie for
the second warmest Valentine`s Day on record.
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The thing I hate most about winter is the constant cloud cover. All I ask for is to see the sun at least 3 days a week.
 
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