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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

If you call phases 7-2 good, we will have spent, we'll call it 19 days out of 62 days over there. 70% of the winter so far has been in the crapper. Anecdotally, that fits with my general sense that about 70% of this winter has been warm and sucky so far. I think that percentage will drop by the time we get to 1/31, though. Even though the mjo looks to move into the bad side again, the amplitude may be low, and we still look to have some cold shots and the occasional winter threat over the next couple of weeks.
 
Faco Thomas said:
While I still think the end of Jan/Feb will be great with a lot of cold and possible a major winter storm or maybe even 2 in some areas, it's concerning to see the MJO going back into bad phases right when the pattern is supposed to be significantly changing towards colder than normal.


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First of all, I'd ignore the Canadian for MJO prediction as it is downright awful. Then we're left with GEFS/EPS, both of which suggest much better times ahead MJOwise by 1/25-6 after going through the unfavorable phase 5. I'm suspecting the further west storm tracks/SE ridging are related to this move back toward unfavorable phases. But that won't last.
 
Sleet City USA said:
12z GFS at hour 156
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png
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Now this is more like it.
 
Rain Cold said:
This is pretty telling. Take a look at how much time we will have likely spent in the bad phases of the MJO vs. the good ones from the start of winter through the end of January:

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Why I think this all time great pattern being modeled day 12+ isn’t going to verify. The models have been doing this for the past few weeks. I do think Feb will be predominantly below normal though. Just going to take time.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I am feeling we're doing the same thing. I don't know why, but it seems we get more snow here now when it isn't really in what is considered a great pattern for snow, like the early December storm, than when we're supposedly going into a pattern that should be supportive for more winter storm chances.
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We have been lucky to get snow past few winters in spite of not having great patterns. It’s not like we have been having great patterns and missing out. There have been no great patterns. This will be our 4th AN temp winter in a row.
 
Kylo said:
We have been lucky to get snow past few winters in spite of not having great patterns. It’s not like we have been having great patterns and missing out. There have been no great patterns. This will be our 4th AN temp winter in a row.
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But we have. I recall plenty of times the past few years when we were supposed to be in a better than normal pattern for producing winter storms and ended up with little to nothing to show for it.
 
Kylo said:
We have been lucky to get snow past few winters in spite of not having great patterns. It’s not like we have been having great patterns and missing out. There have been no great patterns. This will be our 4th AN temp winter in a row.
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We've got to have a good pattern month eventually though right? Aren't we due? Just one month? If it's any month, it's got to be February.
 
Brick Tamland said:
But we have. I recall plenty of times the past few years when we were supposed to be in a better than normal pattern for producing winter storms and ended up with little to nothing to show for it.
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2010, 2011 - great patterns and big snows.

2014 was the last winter that I considered was a great pattern. -AO/-EPO, very cold and very snowy, multiple chances.

2015 had a great 2 week period in Feb where we got multiple snow events.

2018, we got lucky, really lucky.
 
I am saying every winter lately it seems when people start talking about entering a great pattern for snow, it never happens, or we do get a pattern that is supposed to be better for snow but still get nothing. It seems we get snow now when there's not really talk of it being a great pattern for getting snow.
 
Kylo said:
Yeah, anyone who expected a flip to a better pattern on the 20th will be disappointed. Still a couple weeks out.
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Well, most folks were saying the 20th is when the pattern was supposed to start being better for more winter storms.
 
And the models were showing snow for the early December storm a pretty good ways out. People didn't believe what they were showing then, and it ended up being a good storm. Now we're not supposed to trust the models when they show nothing. But to me it seems all the models have to be showing something, maybe various totals, but something in order for there to be a legit shot at a winter storm.
 
It's every man/woman for themselves. At least if a storm does work out, I can pull for it to work for Lafayette as I can drive there if so. If they get a 4"+ storm, I'll pull the trigger as long as I can.

I'm not in the Carolinas, but I'm close enough that I can lean towards my weather being more like theirs than even west central GA.
 
Arcc said:
Only those in the Carolinas or those who don't read 500mb maps. I love the GFS look.
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I'm liking it too. A good storm for Central AL north and MS would likely be close for ATL and likely for N GA areas as well. Probably many in Upstate SC too, but RDU folks would get very little from a true Miller A that goes 50 miles east of them. I like where we are headed and it seems our time is coming.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Well, most folks were saying the 20th is when the pattern was supposed to start being better for more winter storms.
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To be fair, the pattern that we're currently moving into is much more conducive to winter weather than what we've just come out of. But it's kind of like saying dog pee smells better than cat pee. At least we have a can of Febreze now. But at some point, we are going to have to kick the animals out of the house.
 
Brick Tamland said:
And the models were showing snow for the early December storm a pretty good ways out. People didn't believe what they were showing then, and it ended up being a good storm. Now we're not supposed to trust the models when they show nothing. But to me it seems all the models have to be showing something, maybe various totals, but something in order for there to be a legit shot at a winter storm.
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The December thing wasn't normal. Most of the time, you don't get to track a storm in from that far out. Currently, you have the pieces on the playing field. The odds of them lining up aren't great for a lot of areas. But they're on the field now. We'll have to watch and see if they can come together. There's definitely a chance.
 
Rain Cold said:
The December thing wasn't normal. Most of the time, you don't get to track a storm in from that far out. Currently, you have the pieces on the playing field. The odds of them lining up aren't great for a lot of areas. But they're on the field now. We'll have to watch and see if they can come together. There's definitely a chance.
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Yeah, I am just saying in the past when we were supposed to have a good team on the field, we don't get the win. We seem to get most of the wins the past few years when we have a less than stellar team and pull an upset.
 
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I love reading the main thread and banter thread. People’s true colors are showing VERY brightly.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
It's every man/woman for themselves. At least if a storm does work out, I can pull for it to work for Lafayette as I can drive there if so. If they get a 4"+ storm, I'll pull the trigger as long as I can.

I'm not in the Carolinas, but I'm close enough that I can lean towards my weather being more like theirs than even west central GA.
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ForsythSnow said:
I'm liking it too. A good storm for Central AL north and MS would likely be close for ATL and likely for N GA areas as well. Probably many in Upstate SC too, but RDU folks would get very little from a true Miller A that goes 50 miles east of them. I like where we are headed and it seems our time is coming.
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I love it, everyone man/woman/child for themselves.

I am rooting for you guys and Tarheel/Jimmy. RDU had there’s already, especially Brick.
 
Hope the western portions of the SE can get something, I’m fine here in nc with the 6” in snow back on dec 9
 
Let me just remind everybody that we had a big western ridge set up shop early January of last year with a deep eastern trough and we couldn’t buy a storm. I know we have things we like to look for and nit pick on the models but there’s more than one way to skin a cat. We find new ways to win and lose every year..mostly ways to lose, but you get the point
 
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