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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

Who else is tired of hearing that we are 10-14 days out?

Entering Mid January now, I’m starting to have ants in my pants waiting on something to take me out of the misery this winter storm drought is putting me in. I swear, ever since I actively began following weather on the models around 4 years ago or so, it’s like I’ve jinxed the Midlands from getting anything for looking for it to hard.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Georgia got enough snow last year for the next 5 years. Hell even Savannah saw record snow! We aint seing **** this year!
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Definitive statements like that are not necessary. I think there is some potential. Just because we did well last year doesn't mean anything.
Robert West said:
Who else is tired of hearing that we are 10-14 days out?

Entering Mid January now, I’m starting to have ants in my pants waiting on something to take me out of the misery this winter storm drought is putting me in. I swear, ever since I actively began following weather on the models around 4 years ago or so, it’s like I’ve jinxed the Midlands from getting anything for looking for it to hard.
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I'm more tired of statements like this.
 
I think it’s funny the ones that get on here 20 days in a row with the same rebuttal to the ones who are frustrated “the operational models can’t get a key on the pattern. You guys need to stop looking into the LR.” LoL it showed rain for everyone 20 days ago, and it has rained ever since. So I guess it was right on the money
 
NoSnowATL said:
That system coming NE out of the gulf does look fantastic, cold in place.... best look I’ve seen all year. Let’s hope.


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Lol are you talking about the end of the FV3? I was salivating looking at that on my lunch break. Looked like 2/3 of GA and all of SC/NC were about to get smoked
 
I want a system to come after the cold arrives first. Be nice to get heavy snow temps middle 20s


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Robert West said:
For real. Good ole two weeks away. Lol G thanks
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I'm fairly neutral on it, but I'd give this "two weeks away" a better chance of verifying than other ones. There are at least some fairly convincing factors arguing for it vs. the usual scenario of hoping for it just based on long range model output. We'll find out soon enough.
 
I stated before that it is hard for me to think I will see another big snow storm this winter, and maybe no more at all, because we already had the big storm in December. We just don't get more than one big snow here each winter, and most of the time when we do it's the only storm we get. The December storm was very lucky, and not in what most consider a great pattern for snow here, especially so early in winter. My take is those seem to be when we get big storms now, not when we're in patterns that were better for snow in the past. We get lucky and go from 70 to a big snow storm a week later. Most of the time when we are supposedly going into a good pattern for snow the past few years, the pattern never fully materializes, or we just don't get anything out of it but a week of cold temps.
 
I can’t base this off anything but just climate and what’s happened recently in El Niño winters and then being known as being backloaded. February could really bring us the goods. It’s hard to imagine to have our third year in a row with a blazin warm February.
 
Kylo said:
Every time I watch the GEFS fantasy day 12+ modeled pattern come in I think of this movie clip.

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Tanp.gif
 
Kylo said:
Every time I watch the GEFS fantasy day 12+ modeled pattern come in I think of this movie clip.

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Lol. It's going to happen man! Clark eventually got his family out of the roundabout! Tonights weeklies will be huge for me I think. If week 2 shows what GEFS shows at the end of the run, game on. If it's still week 3/week 4, we're spinning around still in the roundabout and kicking the can.
 
SD said:
I hope we get a massive SE ridge since we only get snow in bad patterns

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I think you're missing my point.

Did we have what would be considered a great pattern for more than normal chances of snow when we had the storm in early December?

A lot of times when there is talk of a great pattern beforehand, it doesn't fully materialize, or it ends up not doing much of anything when it comes to producing winter storms.

My point is most of our good storms now seem to come when there is not much talk of a great pattern for winter storms beforehand, such as the early December storm. We just seem to get lucky, and often it is when we go from one extreme to another, not when a supposedly great pattern for snow settles in.

I don't understand why it is that way, but sure seems to be how it has been the past few years. Actually, this entire decade for the most part.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I think you're missing my point.

Did we have what would be considered a great pattern for more than normal chances of snow when we had the storm in early December?

A lot of times when there is talk of a great pattern beforehand, it doesn't fully materialize, or it ends up not doing much of anything when it comes to producing winter storms.

My point is most of our good storms now seem to come when there is not much talk of a great pattern for winter storms beforehand, such as the early December storm. We just seem to get lucky, and often it is when we go from one extreme to another, not when a supposedly great pattern for snow settles in.

I don't understand why it is that way, but sure seems to be how it has been the past few years. Actually, this entire decade for the most part.
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Im swamped at work but will look into this when I get home. Tbh the december pattern was probably better than it got credit for

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SnowNiner said:
Lol. It's going to happen man! Clark eventually got his family out of the roundabout! Tonights weeklies will be huge for me I think. If week 2 shows what GEFS shows at the end of the run, game on. If it's still week 3/week 4, we're spinning around still in the roundabout and kicking the can.
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Something is up with the GEFS after day 10. I get that ensembles have low skill day 10+ but the GEFS for day 10+ has been stuck on tanking the AO for it seems like ever. Until we see it hit 3 std inside day 10 this is all fantasy.

85AB475F-4106-4219-BB65-5FD09A0C2287.png
 
We got mosquito season to look forward to....we got that going for us.

My neighbor caught a baby rat snake in her house the other day. Even the snakes don’t fear this winter. And snakes know.

30A3ED5D-8408-4AD9-B24E-8B98F21EE1F5.png
 
Kylo said:
Something is up with the GEFS after day 10. I get that ensembles have low skill day 10+ but the GEFS for day 10+ has been stuck on tanking the AO for it seems like ever. Until we see it hit 3 std inside day 10 this is all fantasy.

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The GEFS has averaged about a 0.5 -AO bias at day 14 the last few months. However, it did well with this last -2 dip. Also, its current sub -2 forecast at day 14 is the most -AO day 14 forecast since mid Nov. So, even after taking into account the 0.5 -AO bias, things are looking up for a another nice drop days 10-14 and maybe even a crash thereafter.

Part of it also is that these graphs are inflated for some reason as I've noted before vs the standard NCEP charts.
 
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B Rad all aboard the cold train! There goes the neighborhood! 41F70A5F-7368-4004-B3A5-139A13AD0106.png
 
If we thought the past 5 weeks was rough, just wait for how much fun the next couple of weeks will be. System tracks to our north or over us, warm rain, then arctic cold front, then another warm rainer, then another arctic cold front...rinse/repeat.
 
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