Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

[Rain Cold]

If you call phases 7-2 good, we will have spent, we'll call it 19 days out of 62 days over there. 70% of the winter so far has been in the crapper. Anecdotally, that fits with my general sense that about 70% of this winter has been warm and sucky so far. I think that percentage will drop by the time we get to 1/31, though. Even though the mjo looks to move into the bad side again, the amplitude may be low, and we still look to have some cold shots and the occasional winter threat over the next couple of weeks.

 

[GaWx]

While I still think the end of Jan/Feb will be great with a lot of cold and possible a major winter storm or maybe even 2 in some areas, it's concerning to see the MJO going back into bad phases right when the pattern is supposed to be significantly changing towards colder than normal.


View attachment 11054View attachment 11055View attachment 11053

First of all, I'd ignore the Canadian for MJO prediction as it is downright awful. Then we're left with GEFS/EPS, both of which suggest much better times ahead MJOwise by 1/25-6 after going through the unfavorable phase 5. I'm suspecting the further west storm tracks/SE ridging are related to this move back toward unfavorable phases. But that won't last.

 

[Brick Tamland]

12z GFS at hour 156

Now this is more like it.

 

[ATLwxfan]

People fretting at the CMC at hour 240 is the best.


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[Rain Cold]

Now this is more like it.

Cold chasing moisture. Not what you’re looking for.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

God the GFS is close close with the weekend.

 

[Jessy89]

No way this cuts


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[Spurs up]

was just outside and was omg I think I see some flakes flying then quickly realized it was ashes from neighbors fire. God my desperation is outta control

 

[malak05]

Pretty much a dud for the bulk of Deep South... Man so much ridiculious energy

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

252

Issa hit!

 

[Jessy89]

Gfs will change a hundred more times. But it’s a good run.


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[Kylo]

This is pretty telling. Take a look at how much time we will have likely spent in the bad phases of the MJO vs. the good ones from the start of winter through the end of January:

View attachment 11058

Why I think this all time great pattern being modeled day 12+ isn’t going to verify. The models have been doing this for the past few weeks. I do think Feb will be predominantly below normal though. Just going to take time.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

 

[Brick Tamland]

View attachment 11068

I am feeling we're doing the same thing. I don't know why, but it seems we get more snow here now when it isn't really in what is considered a great pattern for snow, like the early December storm, than when we're supposedly going into a pattern that should be supportive for more winter storm chances.

 

[Kylo]

I am feeling we're doing the same thing. I don't know why, but it seems we get more snow here now when it isn't really in what is considered a great pattern for snow, like the early December storm, than when we're supposedly going into a pattern that should be supportive for more winter storm chances.

We have been lucky to get snow past few winters in spite of not having great patterns. It’s not like we have been having great patterns and missing out. There have been no great patterns. This will be our 4th AN temp winter in a row.

 

[Brick Tamland]

We have been lucky to get snow past few winters in spite of not having great patterns. It’s not like we have been having great patterns and missing out. There have been no great patterns. This will be our 4th AN temp winter in a row.

But we have. I recall plenty of times the past few years when we were supposed to be in a better than normal pattern for producing winter storms and ended up with little to nothing to show for it.

 

[SnowNiner]

We have been lucky to get snow past few winters in spite of not having great patterns. It’s not like we have been having great patterns and missing out. There have been no great patterns. This will be our 4th AN temp winter in a row.

We've got to have a good pattern month eventually though right? Aren't we due? Just one month? If it's any month, it's got to be February.

 

[TheBatman]

The meltdowns over the 12z gfs and cmc is priceless. Lol

 

[Kylo]

But we have. I recall plenty of times the past few years when we were supposed to be in a better than normal pattern for producing winter storms and ended up with little to nothing to show for it.

2010, 2011 - great patterns and big snows.

2014 was the last winter that I considered was a great pattern. -AO/-EPO, very cold and very snowy, multiple chances.

2015 had a great 2 week period in Feb where we got multiple snow events.

2018, we got lucky, really lucky.

 

[Kylo]

The meltdowns over the 12z gfs and cmc is priceless. Lol

Yeah, anyone who expected a flip to a better pattern on the 20th will be disappointed. Still a couple weeks out.