Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

[1300m]

So you’re saying with the gfs , cmc , FV3 and the ensembles that weather needs can’t find something good on them every single day ? I mean I guess it depends on what you’re looking for but I’d argue you most certainly can find something good . Now hopefully people believe 384 op runs or ensemble runs . But that’s on them if they do

And now we have people saying wait till February after it was mid Jan, then the end of jan now it’s on to February . Obviously the pattern will change one way or the other . But people keep kicking the can and adjusting every two weeks. That’s not forecasting that adjusting to their original wrong ideas


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

So no offense, but I really don't understand this logic. Doesn't NWS and broadcast meteorologists make a new forecast every single day? Theirs certainly don't stay the same. What are you supposed to do once your seasonal forecast (which is guaranteed not to be 100% correct when you make it) goes sideways - just give up, tell everyone you suck and beg to be fired?

Doesn't SPC, NHC, WPC and every forecaster alive adjust their forecast daily -- or even multiple times a day -- to the latest available guidance? I'm not angry, but I really don't get why guys like JB get bashed so hard when what they are attempting to do - a seasonal forecast - is about the toughest thing in this field. He may have an agenda, but so does everyone else, including those who love to bash him so hard.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

I went to UGA and graduated from there in 2010. I think that most people fail to realize that UGA had the youngest team in the entire SEC and yet nearly managed to win the conference championship for the second consecutive season. If you had followed the team all season, tonight was clearly the worst game by Fromm the entire season and the lack of the entire team being healthy/playing was extremely evident. The propensity has certainly been present to lose in big games, but the two Alabama teams that we've lost were simply better. In the Kirby Smart era, the LSU loss and the loss tonight definitely hurt. However, we had two really good wins last year against Auburn in the title game and the classic Rose Bowl thriller against Oklahoma. I'm still not convinced that Alabama's team last season would have been able to beat Oklahoma, but that's a discussion for another day. With all that being said, I like the direction that Kirby is moving the team in and we are finally once again in a position of being a national championship era. Under Mark Richt, such a designation only occurred from time to time.

It's funny given how much over at sports forums it's laughed at, but despite where Georgia was started at in the rankings, this was not supposed to be "the" year. "The" year came and went with another choke in 2017, and the next years that are supposed to be "it" are 2019-2020. But now based off the whispers I've read, there's some good questions if whether Kirby can keep some of the young, more entitled players from running roughshod. The 2018 class was great, but apparently most of those kids were entitled and it sounds more on the line of Florida issues. Thankfully the 2019 class doesn't seem to be same but that needs to be put in check now.

 

[Storm5]

So no offense, but I really don't understand this logic. Doesn't NWS and broadcast meteorologists make a new forecast every single day? Theirs certainly don't stay the same. What are you supposed to do once your seasonal forecast (which is guaranteed not to be 100% correct when you make it) goes sideways - just give up, tell everyone you suck and beg to be fired?

Doesn't SPC, NHC, WPC and every forecaster alive adjust their forecast daily -- or even multiple times a day -- to the latest available guidance? I'm not angry, but I really don't get why guys like JB get bashed so hard when what they are attempting to do - a seasonal forecast - is about the toughest thing in this field. He may have an agenda, but so does everyone else, including those who love to bash him so hard.

Let me rephrase and this is geared mainly to those on weather boards that have a sound knowledge on forecasting but that are in different fields which by the way is NOT me . My ass is wrong daily and not just about weather . I don’t have that knowledge.

The problem I have are the people who bash the professionals but won’t admit when their own ideas fail yet take to twitter and weather boards and constantly act like they have been correct all along . Why is it so hard for people to admit they were wrong vs continuing to push their ideas like they’ve been the same the whole time .


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[1300m]

Let me rephrase and this is geared mainly to those on weather boards that have a sound knowledge on forecasting but that are in different fields which by the way is NOT me . My ass is wrong daily and not just about weather . I don’t have that knowledge.

The problem I have are the people who bash the professionals but won’t admit when their own ideas fail yet take to twitter and weather boards and constantly act like they have been correct all along . Why is it so hard for people to admit they were wrong vs continuing to push their ideas like they’ve been the same the whole time .


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I totally get that and am 110% with you. Sorry for misinterpreting your original post there. Even JB (and especially broadcast mets) are often guilty of trying to mask when they're wrong, which is a major pet peeve of mine. I've actually had several heated exchanges with one of our local mets - Greg Fishel - who often goes on social media and claims others are just "lucky" for calling a storm several days out before he does. I've flat out told him it was pattern recognition and asked him how the same forecasters could get lucky over and over again to which he had no response other than I guess they're better than I am, to which I agreed lol.

 

[Jon]

So you’re saying with the gfs , cmc , FV3 and the ensembles that weather needs can’t find something good on them every single day ? I mean I guess it depends on what you’re looking for but I’d argue you most certainly can find something good . Now hopefully people believe 384 op runs or ensemble runs . But that’s on them if they do

And now we have people saying wait till February after it was mid Jan, then the end of jan now it’s on to February . Obviously the pattern will change one way or the other . But people keep kicking the can and adjusting every two weeks. That’s not forecasting that adjusting to their original wrong ideas


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I don’t know where to start so I’ll just say this.

People who forecast and not model watch should know the difference between true signals in the LR and not just hugging SE ridging. Im not talking about folks backtracking from their super cold Jan forecasts, I’m talking about the day to day posting on here.

The problem with forecasting pattern evolution is by the time it shows up on modeling its too late....by then everyone and their mom knows the pattern will be cold. When forecasting super LR modeling you want to be a step ahead of the crowd. You have to be able to see the model predicting a change to colder before it actually does happen.

February was always the month to watch and the month analogs shouted about. To hear it mentioned is appropriate, and its unfortunate its being used to save face. Feb will more than likely be great.

Bottom line is there is zero reason to write off 28 days of weather at this point. Jan 15 if the 10-15 day still looks terrible, have at it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Rain Cold]

I wish there was just less bashing period. Any rational person would stipulate that weather forecasting for any period, particularly for longer leads, is fraught with forecast risk. I think it's easy to forget how much of an inexact science weather prediction is, especially when discussing it on social media.

 

[Rain Cold]

I don’t know where to start so I’ll just say this.

People who forecast and not model watch should know the difference between true signals in the LR and not just hugging SE ridging. Im not talking about folks backtracking from their super cold Jan forecasts, I’m talking about the day to day posting on here.

The problem with forecasting pattern evolution is by the time it shows up on modeling its too late....by then everyone and their mom knows the pattern will be cold. When forecasting super LR modeling you want to be a step ahead of the crowd. You have to be able to see the model predicting a change to colder before it actually does happen.

February was always the month to watch and the month analogs shouted about. To hear it mentioned is appropriate, and its unfortunate its being used to save face. Feb will more than likely be great.

Bottom line is there is zero reason to write off 28 days of weather at this point. Jan 15 if the 10-15 day still looks terrible, have at it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I agree with a lot of what you said. But I don't think most posters here are writing off anything, though. Sure, there is some impatience, which seems pretty understandable. And as I kind of said the other day, most people that post on social media that are interested in and love the weather don't have the skills or experience to be able to walk ahead of the models. And there have certainly been more than enough occasions where the "experts" who do step ahead of the models end up getting it wrong. Right or wrong, this causes some anxiousness.

Anyway, you're right in that this was always supposed to be a back-loaded winter. At some point, it needs to show up outside of theory land. I think it will...and is starting too, actually. So, people should be a little patient with the forecasts. At the same time, I don't see a big swarm of pitchforks just yet. I think folks will feel better once some cold and snow potential starts to actually show up in the medium that they can see -- mainly talking about the models here.

 

[Kylo]

EPS was a step in the right direction. Just need to fix the Pac, Atlantic and the arctic and we could have something special. It's on the cusp of greatness.

 

[Kylo]

I don’t know where to start so I’ll just say this.

People who forecast and not model watch should know the difference between true signals in the LR and not just hugging SE ridging. Im not talking about folks backtracking from their super cold Jan forecasts, I’m talking about the day to day posting on here.

The problem with forecasting pattern evolution is by the time it shows up on modeling its too late....by then everyone and their mom knows the pattern will be cold. When forecasting super LR modeling you want to be a step ahead of the crowd. You have to be able to see the model predicting a change to colder before it actually does happen.

February was always the month to watch and the month analogs shouted about. To hear it mentioned is appropriate, and its unfortunate its being used to save face. Feb will more than likely be great.

Bottom line is there is zero reason to write off 28 days of weather at this point. Jan 15 if the 10-15 day still looks terrible, have at it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I agree with a lot of what you said. But I don't think most posters here are writing off anything, though. Sure, there is some impatience, which seems pretty understandable. And as I kind of said the other day, most people that post on social media that are interested in and love the weather don't have the skills or experience to be able to walk ahead of the models. And there have certainly been more than enough occasions where the "experts" who do step ahead of the models end up getting it wrong. Right or wrong, this causes some anxiousness.

Anyway, you're right in that this was always supposed to be a back-loaded winter. At some point, it needs to show up outside of theory land. I think it will...and is starting too, actually. So, people should be a little patient with the forecasts. At the same time, I don't see a big swarm of pitchforks just yet. I think folks will feel better once some cold and snow potential starts to actually show up in the medium that they can see -- mainly talking about the models here.

I disagree with this was supposed to be a backloaded winter. I agree our best chances at snow in a nino are in February. But, we are only saying our best chances are 6 weeks from now because the next several look really bad. I don't want to hear "nino's can be warm through mid-January". I have shown that our best nino's are below normal through mid point of met winter.

We don't know how the last week of January into February are going to be, it could be epic...but if past history is any indication I doubt it will be. We know atleast the next 3 weeks will be well AN, there isn't going to be a dramatic shift in the day 10-15 modeling and if you see how bad a shape the EPS is in it will take atleast another 7-10 days after.

Edit: I am not preaching to you guys....you guys are great. I am more venting at myself for being sucked into thinking this could be a great winter.

 

[Rain Cold]

I disagree with this was supposed to be a backloaded winter. I agree our best chances at snow in a nino are in February. But, we are only saying our best chances are 6 weeks from now because the next several look really bad. I don't want to hear "nino's can be warm through mid-January". I have shown that our best nino's are below normal through mid point of met winter.

We don't know how the last week of January into February are going to be, it could be epic...but if past history is any indication I doubt it will be. We know atleast the next 3 weeks will be well AN, there isn't going to be a dramatic shift in the day 10-15 modeling and if you see how bad a shape the EPS is in it will take atleast another 7-10 days after.

Edit: I am not preaching to you guys....you guys are great. I am more venting at myself for being sucked into thinking this could be a great winter.

This is where I wouldn't get too discouraged in the 10+ day model looks yet. It really wouldn't take 3-4 weeks to work out of what we are in today and move into a much better pattern. Even less work to get to average. I know average sucks because it doesn't snow with average temps. But we've seen models turn on a dime plenty of times. Most forecasts I read showed the back half of the winter (which I take to mean the second half of Jan into early March) being the target for the coldest and snowiest anoms. You showed some great stuff about Ninos as well. I wondered this in the Jan thread, but I wonder if warmer ocean temps in general have muted or delayed the effects of Nino so far? You'd think that would play a role.

Anyway, just being objective, I don't think we can stick a fork in the last 10 days of January. If that indeed pans out and carries over into February, that would probably be pretty good in most peoples' eyes, I would think.

 

[Kylo]

This is where I wouldn't get too discouraged in the 10+ day model looks yet. It really wouldn't take 3-4 weeks to work out of what we are in today and move into a much better pattern. Even less work to get to average. I know average sucks because it doesn't snow with average temps. But we've seen models turn on a dime plenty of times. Most forecasts I read showed the back half of the winter (which I take to mean the second half of Jan into early March) being the target for the coldest and snowiest anoms. You showed some great stuff about Ninos as well. I wondered this in the Jan thread, but I wonder if warmer ocean temps in general have muted or delayed the effects of Nino so far? You'd think that would play a role.

Anyway, just being objective, I don't think we can stick a fork in the last 10 days of January. If that indeed pans out and carries over into February, that would probably be pretty good in most peoples' eyes, I would think.

This looks like what everyone expected I would think. the PDO signature actually looks better than I thought it would. PDO does correlate better with our conus temps as we get into February. Warmth off the coast argues for western ridge and cool pool just SW of GOA is prime location for NPac low. Even the atlantic looks better, not nearly as on fire as past winters.

 

[Kylo]

I guess the good news about the EPS is all the cold is bottled up over the arctic. If this strat thing works and we just need to give it 3-4 weeks then it should unload somewhere.

 

[Storm5]

At this point I’ll be angry by the time February rolls around so I hope MBY gets and massive ice storm and I am without power for weeks and have to deliver my kid at the house ( ok that’s complete BS no way I could do that )

 

[NoSnowATL]

At this point I’ll be angry by the time February rolls around so I hope MBY gets and massive ice storm and I am without power for weeks and have to deliver my kid at the house ( ok that’s complete BS no way I could do that )

Thankfully mine isn’t due until May.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[SoutheastRidge]

I guess I am the only one who is looking forward to spring.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

My sister in law lives in OKC and she said the news is talking anywhere between a dusting and 7”.. What a good problem to have

 

[metfascination]

I would do away with divisions within conferences. I wanna see the 2 best teams in a conference championship, but what if the 2 best teams are in the same division?

That more often occurs in the SEC West....

I’ve given some thought about the 8 game setup. Would that cause even more issue with the “we deserve to be in issue”? I don’t know that there is a perfect solution


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[tennessee storm]

I guess I am the only one who is looking forward to spring.

Winter stay this way.... bring in spring or summer even

I guess I am the only one who is looking forward to spring.

if winter stays like this. Bring spring on or even summer

 

[Storm5]

For all our Raleigh friends . They understand heavy sleet


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Brent]

My sister in law lives in OKC and she said the news is talking anywhere between a dusting and 7”.. What a good problem to have

LOL