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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
There’s nothing in the 12z suite worth talking about. All bad
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Don’t get much more exciting than this for the first half of January. Good news is that met winter will be half over by the end of GEFS run.

Another week or so you will see people that called for a epic cold winter start back pedaling. If I was going to do a winter forecast I would take the warmest analogs and go with that. 75% of the time you would be correct.

9AA2AEC2-A3E8-4679-BEB4-44CB272CB012.png773E7316-6A1C-4349-9528-1FF945AEAD41.png
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
There’s nothing in the 12z suite worth talking about. All bad
Click to expand...
I disagree. A few days ago, virtually every model run looked like this (or worse) at the end:

fv3p_z500_mslp_namer_65.png

Now, we're seeing more and more runs that show something similar to this:

fv3p_z500_mslp_namer_62.png

Several things about the last image look better. Will it continue to build in? Who knows, but it feels better than it did the other day.
 
That last image looks workable. There's still an Alaskan low close but there's another one that's pulling away. It's not what we need yet but it's trying to get there.
 
Rain Cold said:
I disagree. A few days ago, virtually every model run looked like this (or worse) at the end:

View attachment 9907

Now, we're seeing more and more runs that show something similar to this:

View attachment 9908

Several things about the last image look better. Will it continue to build in? Who knows, but it feels better than it did the other day.
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‍ You are using the FV3 to prove your pt. Desperate times call for desperate measures.


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Instead of cold/snow we get daughter vortex in Canada. So don’t complain, this is so freaking exciting. :rolleyes:

134B25B8-39FF-4B74-B979-81F985724B42.png
 
Rain Cold said:
I disagree. A few days ago, virtually every model run looked like this (or worse) at the end:

View attachment 9907

Now, we're seeing more and more runs that show something similar to this:

View attachment 9908

Several things about the last image look better. Will it continue to build in? Who knows, but it feels better than it did the other day.
Click to expand...

110% agree. I’ll go further and say we WILL see models shift toward a better pattern for the last half of Jan.

Please, if you find yourself getting angry at LR ridged over the US during model watching....take a few days and come back. Once the modeling is day Day 10 from Jan 20, it will be an entirely different picture. Waiting sucks, but we aren’t going to snap our fingers overnight and see a cold and stormy run on the euro. It comes slowly. The hints, as CR has already stated, are there. Even IF the model reverts back to a ridge, the fact that it had a PV low dropping south of Hudson means something....it’s not just noise.


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Jon said:
110% agree. I’ll go further and say we WILL see models shift toward a better pattern for the last half of Jan.

Please, if you find yourself getting angry at LR ridged over the US during model watching....take a few days and come back. Once the modeling is day Day 10 from Jan 20, it will be an entirely different picture. Waiting sucks, but we aren’t going to snap our fingers overnight and see a cold and stormy run on the euro. It comes slowly. The hints, as CR has already stated, are there. Even IF the model reverts back to a ridge, the fact that it had a PV low dropping south of Hudson means something....it’s not just noise.


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Take a few days off ? Lol that’s like telling a coke head in a room full of cocaine to take a few days off . When you have multiple models and can always find something that looks good , people will always hunt for what they are looking for


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Storm5 said:
Take a few days off ? Lol that’s like telling a coke head in a room full of cocaine to take a few days off . When you have multiple models and can always find something that looks good , people will always hunt for what they are looking for


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Not really. You can’t always find something good. Until the last 24 hours we were literally just discussing ssw and favorable indexes. The models in of themselves (all of them) were crap, now you’re starting to see some hope in the LR and people want to claim cherrypicking....fine by me, we’ll see on Feb 1. Did any change occur? I’d argue yes.


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Jon said:
Not really. You can’t always find something good. Until the last 24 hours we were literally just discussing ssw and favorable indexes. The models in of themselves (all of them) were crap, now you’re starting to see some hope in the LR and people want to claim cherrypicking....fine by me, we’ll see on Feb 1. Did any change occur? I’d argue yes.


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So you’re saying with the gfs , cmc , FV3 and the ensembles that weather needs can’t find something good on them every single day ? I mean I guess it depends on what you’re looking for but I’d argue you most certainly can find something good . Now hopefully people believe 384 op runs or ensemble runs . But that’s on them if they do

And now we have people saying wait till February after it was mid Jan, then the end of jan now it’s on to February . Obviously the pattern will change one way or the other . But people keep kicking the can and adjusting every two weeks. That’s not forecasting that adjusting to their original wrong ideas


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