Henry2326
Member
I wouldn’t be surprised if someone see’s severe weather with this. Euro has some stronger 850 winds tooThe 18Z Euro, which ends the run 100 miles S of C LA moving NE (at hour 90), is the strongest run of any Euro yet with 998 mb. This compares to the 1002 of the 12Z, and the 1004 of the 6Z and 0Z. Also, it has trended somewhat east of the 12Z, which was east of the 0Z. Based on this and other models, the east trend of the track as well as strengthening of the storm may not be over.
InterestingThe 18Z EPS is consistent with the 18Z Euro operational in being much more active and further east based on the individual members as well as the mean sfc low position/precip/500 mb pattern. The majority of the 51 members (impossible to count) easily get to 1003 or stronger. The number of sub 999 is ~15 (30%), which compares to only 5 on the 12Z, 4 on the 6Z, and 3 on the 0Z.
This is by far the most active of any EPS yet. This is looking more and more like it will be a very big wx maker for much of the SE US this weekend and the largest effect from a tropical cyclone so far this season for many. Stay tuned.
Most of the members, especially the stronger ones, are ENE of the operational.
This could get interesting real quick if it continues possible uptick in intensity. We will have a whole situation.Interesting
Why don't you fire up a separate thread Larry.1. The new 0Z Euro is slightly weaker at 1000 vs the 998 of the 18Z. Also, the track of the center is even further E vs prior runs with it going from far SE LA ENE to Mobile through S-central Ga through SE SC to Wilmington, NC. 1-4" of much needed rainfall covers all around the track and also further SE.
2. 0Z UKMET: similar track/strength to its 12Z run:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 22.4N 95.8W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.10.2019 48 22.4N 95.8W 1005 30
1200UTC 18.10.2019 60 23.8N 93.5W 1004 26
0000UTC 19.10.2019 72 26.8N 90.3W 1000 34
1200UTC 19.10.2019 84 28.3N 89.1W 999 34
0000UTC 20.10.2019 96 30.3N 86.8W 999 30
1200UTC 20.10.2019 108 32.6N 83.3W 1003 30
0000UTC 21.10.2019 120 34.3N 79.5W 1007 32
1200UTC 21.10.2019 132 37.0N 76.1W 1010 29
0000UTC 22.10.2019 144 CEASED TRACKING
I'm hopeful.....but....we have had far too many that started out minimal and blew up along the way.12Z GEFS continues the trend toward more activity and faster with plentiful and very beneficial rainfall for much of FL (several inches) and up into the SE, especially S 2/3 of GA, SE corner of AL, SE half of SC, and E 1/3 of NC.
This will hopefully be more of a blessing than a curse and is the type of storm that has been wished for by several here as opposed to a hurricane: very beneficial rains without significant damage. Well, your wish may come true after all!
SE trend is not your friend!12Z GEFS continues the trend toward more activity and faster with plentiful and very beneficial rainfall for much of FL (several inches) and up into the SE, especially S 2/3 of GA, SE corner of AL, SE half of SC, and E 1/3 of NC.
This will hopefully be more of a blessing than a curse and is the type of storm that has been wished for by several here as opposed to a hurricane: very beneficial rains without significant damage. Well, your wish may come true after all!
12Z GEFS continues the trend toward more activity and faster with plentiful and very beneficial rainfall for much of FL (several inches) and up into the SE, especially S 2/3 of GA, SE corner of AL, SE half of SC, and E 1/3 of NC.
This will hopefully be more of a blessing than a curse and is the type of storm that has been wished for by several here as opposed to a hurricane: very beneficial rains without significant damage. Well, your wish may come true after all!
You mean the plane that's currently flying over Wyoming going NW?Recon is enroute to the Gulf of Mexico today.