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Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion

How long will that NE high last? I read somewhere that this may be a common setup this season, which would be bad news for the SE.
 
GaWx said:
After seeing the Tropical Tidbits GEFS maps, I can see more clearly why the members develop. They form north of the Bahamas ~8/28 to the SW of a big sfc high slowly moving offshore the NE US. In the homegrown category, this actually is a not uncommon occurrence climowise near the heart of the season and may need to be watched as the SSTs are boiling there.

1. 216 hour map: about half the members have a sfc low:
View attachment 21775

2. 48 hours later(264 hours) shows a WSW average movement toward FL and some strengthening of those members:
View attachment 21776

I'd put this in the low risk category for the US since it is pretty far out in time (last few days of August), but there could end up being something to this assuming the big NE US high verifies and persists for several days with only slow movement offshore.
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Yeah I could see how that potentially happens and good pt regarding the SSTAs. The Bahamas/far SW Atlantic really haven't been hindered in terms of total activity the last several years and vertical instability is considerably higher relative to normal vs the east-central Atlantic.
 
The 18Z GEFS is similar to the 12Z GEFS with many active members off the SE coast very late this month fwiw. Will this look persist on later runs or is this going to end up being little or nothing?

I think that homegrown/subtropics as opposed to MDR will be the place to find an August TC genesis if there is going to be one.

82A14139-20DB-4390-8FB1-16001DE1B2C4.png
 
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GaWx said:
The 18Z GEFS is similar to the 12Z GEFS with many active members off the SE coast very late this month fwiw. Will this look persist on later runs or is this going to end up being little or nothing?

I think that homegrown/subtropics as opposed to MDR will be the place to find an August TC genesis if there is going to be one.

View attachment 21786
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Yeah the SE coast gets messy particularly on the gfs with the wedge scenario and baroclinic zone offshore potentially interacting with an incoming tropical wave

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Not giving up on August for sure too close to peak season to write off something forming quick

But this would favor an active September especially after the 10th it appearsreceived_299049177587639.png
 
BirdManDoomW said:
I remember reading a blog from Dr. Masters (weather underground) about the hurricane season time frame changing. Like lasting longer than normal...not sure about delayed start I would have to go back and read. (Theory)
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It seems lately every season is later too
 
Bham 99 said:
It seems lately every season is later too
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You know, this may be a larger point to make regarding climate change in general. We've been consistently getting our winters AFTER Dec. We're getting cooler and wetter Springs. We're getting later Hurricane Seasons. Falls are either late and brief or non-existent. The only thing that isn't getting shifted around is the summer season, which if anything seems to snap on as soon as Spring is getting underway. I could go on. Mods, if this post goes into the Climate Change thread, go ahead and move.
 
accu35 said:
Not that I want any storms to strike us, but I'm very bored with weather as of now and ready to track a Hurricane, or just bring on winter
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same... this pattern is so boring, I'm tired of hot and dry. Need a change.

I really honestly thought hurricane season would be going by now too
 
Although the 12Z GEFS is still another one with a very quiet MDR, it does have a fairly strong signal for a TC forming off the SE coast and then going up/near the coast from NC to the Canadian Maritimes in very early Sep. fwiw.
 
A recent NOAA report is predicting the chance of an “above average” hurricane season to 45 percent. El Niño, which tempers atmospheric conditions, has ended, returning the Atlantic to a neutral but potentially volatile state. Experts at NOAA anticipate that there will be 10-17 named storms between now and the end of hurricane season in November, with between five and nine of those becoming hurricanes and potential for two to four to be considered “major.” It is uncertain how many will ultimately make landfall, since weekly weather patterns affect storm paths dramatically.

https://www.sarasotamagazine.com/articles/2019/8/20/hurricane-season-2019
 
The 12Z Euro has what looks like weak TC genesis at hour 48 in the FL Straits. Some of the origins of this energy/moisture may be from a wave currently in the W Caribbean. That weak surface low then moves very slowly north over S FL pen and then gets to just offshore the SE US below the big NE US surface high at hour 120 before then moving very slowly NE just offshore the US east coast while getting a bit stronger over the subsequent few days. Could be something sneaky to watch.
 
And just like that the brand new EPS (12Z) coming out as I type this has ~25% of its 50+ members with sub 1,000 mb pressure and ~12% with sub 992 mb. The prior runs had much less activity then and there. The primary threat landfall threat area per this run would be eastern NC as well as eastern New England and the Canadian Maritimes. One US landfall is as early as 6 days from now (8/26) in Maine of all places with others as late as ~9/1. Watch out as this may sneak up on us.

Check out the large increase in activity showing up on this for the 1st 10 days of the latest EPS run (goes through 12Z of 8/30 though there's also some activity after this ends)!
https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/799-w-396-n/2019082012-240.html
 
Can we squeeze out Chantal?

Probably should have been upgraded earlier

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small low pressure system is located more than 400 miles
southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia. Associated thunderstorm activity
continues to shows signs of organization, and recent satellite data
indicate that the circulation has become a little better defined.
Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, any
further development of this low could result in the formation of a
tropical cyclone while it moves eastward at 15 to 20 mph across the
open north Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
 
Brent said:
Can we squeeze out Chantal?

Probably should have been upgraded earlier

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small low pressure system is located more than 400 miles
southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia. Associated thunderstorm activity
continues to shows signs of organization, and recent satellite data
indicate that the circulation has become a little better defined.
Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, any
further development of this low could result in the formation of a
tropical cyclone while it moves eastward at 15 to 20 mph across the
open north Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Click to expand...
Wheres this at?
 
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