Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion

[Brent]

Well I'll be darned lol

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the small low pressure
area located more than 450 miles southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia,
has acquired a well-defined circulation and is producing tropical-
storm-force winds. As a result, advisories on Tropical Storm
Chantal will be initiated at 11 PM AST (0300 UTC). This system is
moving eastward at 15 to 20 mph across the open north Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

LOOKS PRETTY ROUGH AT THIS TIME



COMPARED TO A WHILE AGO

 

[accu35]

0z Nam wants to try to spin up the gulf system

 

[Brent]

Euro has Dorian(assuming the gulf doesnt develop) off the east coast next week it stays offshore. It appears the vorticity moves near Florida and then develops(the ukmet earlier had some weak development around Florida)

 

[Henry2326]

Wow....could be why they switched models?!?!?

 

[Webberweather53]

The aformentioned area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas & off the SE US coast that @GaWx has been talking about for days has been noted by the NHC.

1. An area of disturbed weather located over the central and
northwestern Bahamas is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible over
the next several days at it moves toward the Florida peninsula and
then the southeastern United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

 

[Brick Tamland]

WRAL already hyping it. It's their top story on the website now.

 

[GaWx]

WRAL already hyping it. It's their top story on the website now.

This is now Invest 98L. Go here for further updates: https://southernwx.com/community/threads/invest-98l.604/

 

[Brent]

The 12z GFS started Happy Hour early.

 

[Brick Tamland]

So, that's a different one behind 98L?

 

[Brent]

So, that's a different one behind 98L?

Yes that one forms near Bermuda and moves west out near 300 hours

It doesnt really do anything with 98L by comparison

 

[Cadi40]

Are we in a pattern that would favor SE landfalls?

 

[Brick Tamland]

Are we in a pattern that would favor SE landfalls?

Well, it seems the first two weeks of September are usually bad for hurricanes in the SE.

 

[BHS1975]

All this ridging in the NE the last few years is making landfall much more likely.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Bryce Shelton]

So um, 98L... What yall think? Definitely more impressive now vs this am.

 

[Brent]

0z GFS is forming the African wave by the weekend briefly becomes a hurricane east of the Antilles and winds up off the East Coast at the end of the run nothing crazy strength wise but it does indicate a long tracker maybe

 

[Brent]

 

[Webberweather53]

The NHC probably needs to mention this system in the eastern MDR. It's trying to develop a low-level vortex underneath its semi-persistent deep convection and model support has substantially increased from both the EPS & GEFS.

 

[Henry2326]

The NHC probably needs to mention this system in the eastern MDR. It's trying to develop a low-level vortex underneath its semi-persistent deep convection and model support has substantially increased from both the EPS & GEFS.


View attachment 21856

View attachment 21857
View attachment 21858

Its showing making it across....at the tip of Florida on Sept 4th....

 

[Henry2326]

GFS 06z takes the system that Webb mentions up the east coast.