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Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion

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Like the prior few runs, the 12Z EPS is a bit more active than the last few GEFS runs even after realizing it has ~52 members vs the ~22 of the GEFS. Of course, with the near dead GEFS, that isn't hard to do. And it still has no real strong signal at any point out 15 days. About the strongest signal I could find over the next 10 days is for a moderate chance for a TD in the E MDR, which is what the last few runs have been showing though very few of these members get to TS.

There is about a 20% chance for genesis in the NW GOM next week per this run though the members that form a TC stay mainly pretty weak.

It is still too early imo to predict no TS+ for the rest of this month. Keep in mind that every 8/21-31 has had at least one genesis into a TS+ since 2001.
 
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GaWx said:
Like the prior few runs, the 12Z EPS is a bit more active than the last few GEFS runs even after realizing it has ~52 members vs the ~22 of the GEFS. Of course, with the near dead GEFS, that isn't hard to do. And it still has no real strong signal at any point out 15 days. About the strongest signal I could find over the next 10 days is for a moderate chance for a TD in the E MDR, which is what the last few runs have been showing though very few of these members get to TS.

There is about a 20% chance for genesis in the NW GOM next week per this run though the members that form a TC stay mainly pretty weak.

It is still too early imo to predict no TS+ for the rest of this month. Keep in mind that every 8/21-31 has had at least one genesis into a TS+ since 2001.
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The favored areas do not look hostile at all for now, so yes, something could well pop. But ... it's pretty hostile in close to the EC/GOM so if anything does pop out there, until the shear relaxes it will probably amount to a "discussion only" event ...

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Give it 10 days....we will see if the Atlantic high retracts or hangs tight. If it retracts, "Katy bar the door"....I personally don't care which month it happens (or doesn't). Wish it would never happen....
 
Two most recent seasons without a storm in August very different seasons

1961 didnt really start til September and man when it did it was insane had 4 straight majors and two Cat 5s including one of the worst hurricanes in Texas history

Also on September 11 1961 almost had 4 hurricanes simultaneously which has only happened 2 other times in historyreceived_2524359364289997.png

On the other hand 1997 when there was a raging el nino had already had the biggest US strike of the year with Danny in mid July

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Well we do know that this season will not go down like 1914, as the least active season. ??‍♂️??‍♂️... But the door is slowly closing on a non-active August. Although, some homegrown storm may form. Nothing looks likely in the MDR. Some shear that a homegrown storm may not be able to fight off. Although things may ramp up by September. Climatology speaking.
 
Other than one gigantic major H late this month in the 60-65W area staying OTS, the Happy Hour GEFS is another very quiet run with not too much else to speak of.
 
I will trade an August for a super active October anytime for rain/snow chances here
 
I remember reading a blog from Dr. Masters (weather underground) about the hurricane season time frame changing. Like lasting longer than normal...not sure about delayed start I would have to go back and read. (Theory)
 
BirdManDoomW said:
I remember reading a blog from Dr. Masters (weather underground) about the hurricane season time frame changing. Like lasting longer than normal...not sure about delayed start I would have to go back and read. (Theory)
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there's always a secondary peak in October, look at Michael last year

or Sandy in 2012

and Wilma in 2005, the strongest hurricane ever in the Atlantic

Mitch 1998 killed 20,000 in Central America, 2nd deadliest hurricane ever

not a recent thing either, Hazel 1954 in October

actually even the deadliest hurricane ever, the great hurricane of 1780(!) was in October
 
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The 0Z GEFS has twin members that have genesis very late month and later become Hs though they stay OTS near 60W. Otherwise, not really anything to write home about.
 
The 12Z GEFS has a modest increase in genesis probability for very late month centered near the Bahamas to the west of an Atlantic high fwiw. These members are moving north at that point around the high into or near the SE US. All of this is very much in the just fwiw category. The main reason this is being mentioned is that the GEFS runs have been absent of significant activity. It still is a low threat at the worst right now.
 
After seeing the Tropical Tidbits GEFS maps, I can see more clearly why the members develop. They form north of the Bahamas ~8/28 to the SW of a big sfc high slowly moving offshore the NE US. In the homegrown category, this actually is a not uncommon occurrence climowise near the heart of the season and may need to be watched as the SSTs are boiling there.

1. 216 hour map: about half the members have a sfc low:
gefs12Z081919TropDevBahamasSWofHigh.png

2. 48 hours later(264 hours) shows a WSW average movement toward FL and some strengthening of those members:
gefs12Z081919TropDevBahamasTwoDaysLaterNearFL.png

I'd put this in the low risk category for the US since it is pretty far out in time (last few days of August), but there could end up being something to this assuming the big NE US high verifies and persists for several days with only slow movement offshore.
 
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GaWx said:
After seeing the Tropical Tidbits GEFS maps, I can see more clearly why the members develop. They form north of the Bahamas ~8/28 to the SW of a big sfc high slowly moving offshore the NE US. In the homegrown category, this actually is a not uncommon occurrence climowise near the heart of the season and may need to be watched as the SSTs are boiling there.

1. 216 hour map: about half the members have a sfc low:
View attachment 21775

2. 48 hours later(264 hours) shows a WSW average movement toward FL and some strengthening of those members:
View attachment 21776

I'd put this in the low risk category for the SE US since it is pretty far out in time (last few days of August), but there could end up being something to this assuming the big NE US high verifies and persists for several days with only slow movement offshore.
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Just read my local AFD and they are saying strong wedge setting up next weekend is looking likely. So this strong high might be legit!?
 
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