rburrel2
Member
The 12z Hrrr is a thing of beauty for GA/SC/NC. We're 1 for 1 on 12z model runs, let's see where we go!
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rburrel2
Member
Just to illustrate the difference here's last night's Euro compared to the new Hrrr which is faster, more positive tilted, and with less stream separation. Let's hope the Euro/cmc/ukmet trend this way today. Honestly the 12z Hrrr may have been a miss to the south for north GA/Upstate.
iGRXY
Member
More stream separation with the Nam through 21.
I really think it’s important to remember that really the only difference between the GFS and Euro right now is where the stream separation occurs and where the positive tilt ends. I think it’s good to see the HRRR moving more in line with the GFS
iGRXY
Member
Welp it was nice while it lasted.
SnowNiner
Member
GEFS and EPS are showing completely different things. GEFS mean for clt is very significant imo. EPS is showing nothing anymore. Polar opposites.
I'm going with the EPS, as I think the gfs is likely alone and wrong. I'm starting to think of the gfs to be on par with the Canadian, pretty ignorable.
buckinbronco
Member
Looks more similar to the 0z run to me
Welp it was nice while it lasted.
NAM looks terrible outside the mountains, closing off really early
iGRXY
Member
More stream separation vs the 0z run.
buckinbronco
Member
Yeah true, you can see it more as the run continues
My money is on a major correction north and west with it closing over the Arklatex this run.
iGRXY
Member
Yeah, I can tell this thing likely cuts through North Georgia in the end.
rburrel2
Member
It's west with the 5h low, but it's also a lot more positive tilted compared to the euro... Could be a good run for north ga, imo.
SREF mean also corrected N&W at 9z which was probably telegraphing which way the NAM was gonna go.
Again, take these with a grain of salt because this is not a 10:1 storm but I think Charlotte might not get blanked this year. These are all from metro locations:
iGRXY
Member
It's stronger for sure, but hasn't gone neutral tilt yet, but is close.
It's also about 100 miles north this run. Last run was New Orleans, this run Hattiesburg at hour 57.
iGRXY
Member
It's stronger for sure, but hasn't gone neutral tilt yet, but is close.
This likely does not end well east of the mountains
i just dont trust the gfs though, feels like all rain and we see this thing trend west through verification.
