The way it's looking no matter what track it takes you will end up getting some snow. How much who knows.
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EURO/GFS ends up actually bout the same over SC in terms of track. Difference is the column is colder with the GFS.
Best I can tell on the cruddy ukmet maps.. the 5h low is a little south and east of it's 00z position at 72hrs.
Sweet spot for NC’linians seems to be Little Switzerland, Spruce Pines, to Linville area.
Should have Airbnb’d my place out this weekend and stayed with my neighbor.
Of course I was up there a week too early. At least I got to see some snow on the ground at Carvers Gap though, just none falling from the sky.
It looks like a very similar track as the GFS (roughly Columbus, GA to off Hatteras), but it's a bit faster. So, it likely had a bit less stream separation this run. It's probably not as cold as the GFS
We can all agree here the CMC is probably the best outcome for the all of us
My hope is the western upstate can manage some snow with that track. If you trust the NAM thermals(risky but plausible), it still manages some decent snow here even though it's on the northern end guidance with respect to the 500mb low. So one would assume we'd be in a decent spot with the further south/east track of the GFS/Ukmet/icon.
That's one heck of a mean for the Northern upstate and mountains. Let's hold it right here!
Spann essentially says Bama is out of picture on this but he leaves the door open stating these types of Lows can bring surprises.
If you’re expecting snow with this don’t. Consistent and constant trends away from any cold air .. this is one of the warmer upper low set ups I’ve seen. If you're holding out hope for the GFS and NAM .. don’t they’ll die on a hill showing snow until hour 0. If you do get snow consider yourself one of the lucky few outside of the mountains. Sorry to be the webby downer on this one but no cold air is a coffin stuffer.
I want to see what the Euro shows here. The GFS is pretty dynamic with the closed contour upper low. It's gaining strength as it rolls thru GA into the Carolinas which is a plus. Normally when the GFS hops on board with the strength of the upper low / wave like that, it doesn't just back off over the last 2 days, so I'm kind of expecting the same here, but curious on what the Euro will show. You get that kind of strength, and you get the better dynamics and temp crash. In terms of track, yeah seeing the UKMet wobble south helps here, but some NW trend over the last 2 days is always lurking
James is always non-committal to ULL's and rightfully so.
Jason Simpson
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Saturday still looks pretty interesting! Some rain and some snowflakes possible. Upper lows sometimes bring surprises...
He'll play catchup again. Some other Ala mets are not so dismissive