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Wintry 2/11-2/12 ULL Magic or More Cold Rain

According to KFFC this morning:

National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
645 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2023

So by Sunday morning, we`ll have colder air pushing in behind the
front, but moist flow overriding the area. An upper-level low
pressure system pushing into the forecast area, causing thicknesses
to drop under 540 dam. Between the two systems, heavy saturation
through the vertical column, promoting steady precip across the area
with lifting through the dendritic growth zone as surface temps cool
to the mid- to upper- 30s by Saturday night through Sunday.
Additionally, easterly flow north of the surface flow may promote
upslope flow with a minor CAD wedge forming in the southeastern
Appalachians. The result, will likely be a borderline wintry
weather event, primarily across north Georgia, with the primary
ptype being melting snow across at least a portion of the region.
The tricky part will be where, how long, and how much? No big deal.

As of now, the best confidence we have for any snow accumulations is
across far north Georgia, primarily in the N GA Mnts with minor
accumulation values.
Elsewhere, models are signaling wintry precip
for scattered locations which will be heavily dependent on the
location of the upper-level low pressure system, but since it will
be cut off from the primary flow pattern, its location is much
harder to predict. Additionally, any snow that falls will likely be
falling into temperatures in the mid to upper 30s, which means it
will likely be melting as it comes down as it acts to cool
temperatures as it does so.
This makes the accumulation question
difficult because there will likely be a significant difference
between how much snow could fall versus how much snow will
accumulate, a question some models can predict but can be difficult
to interpret. Additionally, temperatures will likely drop the more
heavier snow falls (and melts) so at some point we could see melting
snow starts to accumulate but at what time that could happen is
unclear. All in all, there remains way too many questions for a
decisive forecast, so for now we`re calling for periods of a
rain/snow mix through a good portion of North Georgia Saturday night
through Sunday morning, with only light accumulations forecast for
far north Georgia. Time will tell as these processes come to
consensus over the next 24-48 hours on how the system will evolve.
 
According to KFFC this morning:

National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
645 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2023

So by Sunday morning, we`ll have colder air pushing in behind the
front, but moist flow overriding the area. An upper-level low
pressure system pushing into the forecast area, causing thicknesses
to drop under 540 dam. Between the two systems, heavy saturation
through the vertical column, promoting steady precip across the area
with lifting through the dendritic growth zone as surface temps cool
to the mid- to upper- 30s by Saturday night through Sunday.
Additionally, easterly flow north of the surface flow may promote
upslope flow with a minor CAD wedge forming in the southeastern
Appalachians. The result, will likely be a borderline wintry
weather event, primarily across north Georgia, with the primary
ptype being melting snow across at least a portion of the region.
The tricky part will be where, how long, and how much? No big deal.

As of now, the best confidence we have for any snow accumulations is
across far north Georgia, primarily in the N GA Mnts with minor
accumulation values.
Elsewhere, models are signaling wintry precip
for scattered locations which will be heavily dependent on the
location of the upper-level low pressure system, but since it will
be cut off from the primary flow pattern, its location is much
harder to predict. Additionally, any snow that falls will likely be
falling into temperatures in the mid to upper 30s, which means it
will likely be melting as it comes down as it acts to cool
temperatures as it does so.
This makes the accumulation question
difficult because there will likely be a significant difference
between how much snow could fall versus how much snow will
accumulate, a question some models can predict but can be difficult
to interpret. Additionally, temperatures will likely drop the more
heavier snow falls (and melts) so at some point we could see melting
snow starts to accumulate but at what time that could happen is
unclear. All in all, there remains way too many questions for a
decisive forecast, so for now we`re calling for periods of a
rain/snow mix through a good portion of North Georgia Saturday night
through Sunday morning, with only light accumulations forecast for
far north Georgia. Time will tell as these processes come to
consensus over the next 24-48 hours on how the system will evolve.
I had noticed they added 30% rain/snow for my grid area recently which is a move toward saying it will snow. From what I cam gather from overnight runs is there is some settling outside of maybe the cmc set and ukmet which may be good for us in N GA with the Euro and Americans together on it plus the Icon. Not too sure I've seen this set not work out when the opposition is the ukmet and cmc.
 
I had noticed they added 30% rain/snow for my grid area recently which is a move toward saying it will snow. From what I cam gather from overnight runs is there is some settling outside of maybe the cmc set and ukmet which may be good for us in N GA with the Euro and Americans together on it plus the Icon. Not too sure I've seen this set not work out when the opposition is the ukmet and cmc.
The NAM as it stands is only model on my side down here in Mcdonough....hopefully the trends today keep going.
 
Feels good to finally get NAm'ed this winter. Where's Stevo at? 15 inch bullseye over his house.View attachment 132683

The snow liquid ratios are horrible & nowhere near 10:1. Looks more like 2-3:1 on the NAM.

Positive snow depth change from the same model shows only 2-3", a mere one-sixth of the 10:1 totals.

nam-218-all-se-snow_depth_chg_inch-6224800.png
 
March 1, 2009 this same thing happened. Had been warm for weeks. The day before was sunny and in upper 50's. Snowed big the next day on a Friday. We plowed that day and then by Monday couldn't even find a snowball. After the snow, it went back in the 60s and all melted by Monday. Never had to pt in salt down as never went below freezing after snow fell.
 
I'm with you - even if it does snow, it's going to be an incredibly low ratio snow.
Agree'd, and the most likely outcome is most people outside of the mountains not getting any accumulations... but you never know and you can't rule out a paste job.

The February 8, 2020 storm for my backyard.... all the hi-res models had between nothing and a dusting of kuchera snow because of boundary layer issues the morning of the event. Not a single global model showed any accumulation for my area b/c of boundary layer/surface temp issues. It wound up snowing hard and steady from 10am to 1pm and I got 3.25 inches of accumulation.

My only point with this is it's not set in stone what will happen here. More often than not things don't go our way, but it can also work out in our favor sometimes too.

In this set up we have time of day going for us, as well as the low level CAD feed at 925/950mb. I've seen worse setups produce more.(such as the one I noted above).
 
"off cycle" runs are just as reliable as "on cycle" runs. The most accurate forecast is typically the most recent one. That goes for all models, not just ECMWF.
and put me on record saying that someone somewhere will get pasted from this storm outside of the mountains. When you have a rapidly deepening 5h low like that there's going to be a least a small localized area with intense rates where boundary layer conditions won't matter.
yep,just have NO idea where
 
As many have noted, most of us east of the mountains are out of this game but also noted previously was a slight shift south on the Ukie... it's not major but something. The 850 low also shifted ever so slightly south, not enough to do any good but any stronger cold press from NE and slight jogs south *could* help a few lucky folks east of the apps out. I'm grasping here and hoping for a miracle but I'll hang on to slightest of hope when it comes to snow lol. Also, the GFS and ICON both have shown this better cold press as evidenced in a quick burst of snow at the onset on the northern edge that quickly transitions to rain

Ukie last 2 runs
1675949319386.gif

ICON
icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_24.png
 
Massive jump on the means from the 6z GEFS, especially across the Southwestern Piedmont and Foothills. Again, take this with a grain of salt because this is *not* a 10:1 snow but it's never a bad thing to see means almost double:

View attachment 132694
Can you show that for the entire SE? Thanks!
 
and put me on record saying that someone somewhere will get pasted from this storm outside of the mountains. When you have a rapidly deepening 5h low like that there's going to be a least a small localized area with intense rates where boundary layer conditions won't matter.
I don’t think that’s too crazy to say. I was lucky enough on 4/2/19 to be in the dead center bullseye with a rapidly deepening low and ended up with 2 hours of some of the greatest rates I had every seen outside of the mountains and 2.5” inches on the ground. Now with this set up, I think we might see a larger area than what there was that morning… maybe a swath 60-70 miles wide, but nothing like the expansive area that the GFS and even the NAM is showing right now. That to me is why I truly doubt you’ll see these NWS field offices bite on anything outside the mountains until possibly Saturday afternoon updates, because there is going be no way to nail down such a small area this far out
 
I don’t think that’s too crazy to say. I was lucky enough on 4/2/19 to be in the dead center bullseye with a rapidly deepening low and ended up with 2 hours of some of the greatest rates I had every seen outside of the mountains and 2.5” inches on the ground. Now with this set up, I think we might see a larger area than what there was that morning… maybe a swath 60-70 miles wide, but nothing like the expansive area that the GFS and even the NAM is showing right now. That to me is why I truly doubt you’ll see these NWS field offices bite on anything outside the mountains until possibly Saturday afternoon updates, because there is going be no way to nail down such a small area this far out
They're not going to bite on anything until there's snow on the ground. They are taking the odds that this doesn't produce outside of the mountains which isn't dumb, but I wouldn't expect anything more than a maybe it might snow even if all the globals are showing a paste bomb.
 
As many have noted, most of us east of the mountains are out of this game but also noted previously was a slight shift south on the Ukie... it's not major but something. The 850 low also shifted ever so slightly south, not enough to do any good but any stronger cold press from NE and slight jogs south *could* help a few lucky folks east of the apps out. I'm grasping here and hoping for a miracle but I'll hang on to slightest of hope when it comes to snow lol. Also, the GFS and ICON both have shown this better cold press as evidenced in a quick burst of snow at the onset on the northern edge that quickly transitions to rain

Ukie last 2 runs
View attachment 132693

ICON
icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_24.png
This was a big missed opportunity. Any better cold press and we would have had a different storm to track. Unless we start seeing some miracle in the hi res temp profiles it's rain event for most people outside of the foothills and mountains
 
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