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Wintry 2/11-2/12 ULL Magic or More Cold Rain

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thru 14z Sunday.. 4km followed by 1km.
 
Haha, IDK man.. something tells me not to believe over a foot of snow in my back yard on the above model. In fact, I am betting on none currently.
 
I honestly feel that maybe Central Midlands might do good with this one. If 6z Nam continued snow was moving in.
 
SnowQueen said:
Fwiw AccuWeather has a coating to an inch for Concord
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It shows the same for Durham too. I actually like that feature. I will definitely be monitoring that throughout the day for any changes. For Durham they raised the 1-3 inches possibility to 34 percent. It was a lot less than that earlier. I know we’re still in hopeful mode but we shall see.


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Just curious as to why the Nam/Gfs solution is so different from the Euro/Uk camp. This thing is 72 hours out and we don't have a clue as to what will happen. That 06z GEFS snow mean is the highest I have had all winter, but I got a bad feeling that this one still might get away from us.
 
KyloG said:
the west trend never fails.

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I hate to be that guy but those things have proven useless. Especially the GEFS. I'm sure pros may strongly disagree but I feel we're in the range where the higher resolution ops are more reliable. We'll test that theory for sure now because that looks like a 3 inch mean over me and the Euro op says I don't see a flake.
 
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GEFS looks great as it stands right at this moment, but as @KyloG mentioned, it is ticking West, so i imagine by the time we get this evening it'll be confined to the mountains.. But, who knows. Maybe the GFS can hold ground here a bit and Euro & EPS tick back East.
 
Here's the latest; Ensembles/Ops/Short Ranges: keep in mind Nam and GDPS are only out to 84: Gonna use 10;1 instead of kuchera , cause pivotal want give me free access to some:

6Z GEFS

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6z GFS
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0z Euro Op
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0Z canadian Op
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0Z Ukmet
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0Z CMCE
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0Z EPS
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6Z NAM
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6Z RDPS
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