Womp womp
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Based on the Nam and hrrr soundings we are razor thin between rain and sleet for the first few hours Saturday night
Womp womp
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Glad the NW trend has halted
As always, it all about the heavy bands. Get under one and boom.Hrrr looking sexy with on the composite radar for north ga and the upstate. That should be snow falling as the cold pool has moved over.. boundary layer concerns still exist though on the hrrr, but imo it has a slight warm bias at the surface in the long range and if we get potential thundersnow rates like shown it should drop us to 32/33.
Heck after how this has trended over the week, I'd take that model output there and be a happy camper (for a few days anyway)Definitely. My high bar is to see a good 30 minute burst of snow in the air.
That trend on the NAM is less NS interaction, sooner negative tilt which would translate to a more NW solution, hope for you guys it's wrongGlad the NW trend has halted
I really think the key of where the accumulating snowfall outside of mountain areas is going to be where exactly that cold core moves and if there is heavy enough precip rates to get enough snow. Like I said yesterday, I think there will be an area of that outside the mountains, but it will be quite narrow… maybe 60-70 miles.As always, it all about the heavy bands. Get under one and boom.
Yep...no good news here. ATL to GSP to CLT wanted more progressive.That trend on the NAM is less NS interaction, sooner negative tilt which would translate to a more NW solution, hope for you guys it's wrong
Yep, the good news is that if snow falls rates will probably be good, but it will definitely limit maximum accumulations.Definitely. My high bar is to see a good 30 minute burst of snow in the air.
3km doesn’t look any better.12k NAM looks like hot garbage
I'll gladly take the dry slot and then a burst of snow with the deform band.There might be a few people in NW Piedmont of NC that would say the NAM looks better lol
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Been mine since New years Day; Get the windshield or Mulch dusted up with something white besides Frost. We had what a 5 minute snow shower in December: Not even a drop of freezing drizzle,graupel,sleet. Which is very rare for our location this late in the season.Definitely. My high bar is to see a good 30 minute burst of snow in the air.
if we get anything this is how were going to do it, magic under the cold core. in my experience that precip is never really modeled right so this is probably the wildcard..
i'll maintain that we've just had bad luck, we've seen some sweet set-ups in the 5-9 day range the last few years that just haven't broken our way. sometimes you play really good football but have some bad fumble luck and some interceptions that aren't your fault. just gotta grin and move on manI think as much as anything we’ve just had a number of marginal, crappy setups ever since January 2019. The lone exception being the storm last Jan that hit the Upstate pretty hard. We’re not alone though. Same thing can be said in Philly & DC. Is it a new norm? I kind of doubt it, but none of us know for sure
Guess we should have paid attention to the RGEM. It has been snowless for days.
Guess it depends on where you're at. I remember busting to the high side Feb 2020.That’s what I said but was told it was a bad model. I default to the most conservative models for ATL as they are always right or have been the last 5 years or so.
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Guess it depends on where you're at. I remember busting to the high side Feb 2020.
I’m thinking of ITP Atlanta and near suburbs. Buford geographically is in a more favorable location.
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Yeah, just like the NAM we would have a nighttime passage that would help.Fwiw the ICON actually had a deform band moving through N Central NC Sunday night, temps were too warm but anything possible under that cold core at night, right?
Again, depends on the set-up and where you're at. I grew up in Kennesaw, GA and still have family there. They often get a better snow than we do because it can take longer for the cold to travel across the mountains and reach us. South of I20 folks I just feel bad for.
This storm is a crap shoot. I plan to chase to NE GA Sunday morning.
That’s the winnerIf only we had left this open longer and been able to keep a connection to the northern stream trough to feed more cold into the back
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Feels like this is moving towards more of a back-end potential for areas closer to ATL. 3km NAM shows some of this - fingers crossed for some banding surprise.