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Wintry 2/11-2/12 ULL Magic or More Cold Rain

BHS1975 said:
Womp womp

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Based on the Nam and hrrr soundings we are razor thin between rain and sleet for the first few hours Saturday night
 
It's really going to come down to the cold core and the dynamic cooling in the deform band as to where it'll snow most likely. You need the rates to get the cold below a reasonable height and rates to be there and we only will know the true extent of over/under when it rolls around. I think we have a general consensus of where to watch for wintry precip now though.
 
Hrrr looking sexy with on the composite radar for north ga and the upstate. That should be snow falling as the cold pool has moved over.. boundary layer concerns still exist though on the hrrr, but imo it has a slight warm bias at the surface in the long range and if we get potential thundersnow rates like shown it should drop us to 32/33.Screen Shot 2023-02-10 at 8.58.18 AM.png
 
Last frame of the hrrr at 7am Sunday morning... Oconee county getting obliterated with chicken feathers as that band pivots over the area. 500mb low also looks to have finished occluding just south of Atlanta and is starting to pivot more easterly after vertically stacking with the surface and 850mb low.

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rburrel2 said:
Hrrr looking sexy with on the composite radar for north ga and the upstate. That should be snow falling as the cold pool has moved over.. boundary layer concerns still exist though on the hrrr, but imo it has a slight warm bias at the surface in the long range and if we get potential thundersnow rates like shown it should drop us to 32/33.
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As always, it all about the heavy bands. Get under one and boom.
 
packfan98 said:
Definitely. My high bar is to see a good 30 minute burst of snow in the air.
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Heck after how this has trended over the week, I'd take that model output there and be a happy camper (for a few days anyway)
 
strongwxnc said:
As always, it all about the heavy bands. Get under one and boom.
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I really think the key of where the accumulating snowfall outside of mountain areas is going to be where exactly that cold core moves and if there is heavy enough precip rates to get enough snow. Like I said yesterday, I think there will be an area of that outside the mountains, but it will be quite narrow… maybe 60-70 miles.
 
I am excited by what I'm seeing . This reminds me of two events from the late 1980s when we got 6 or more inches of snow that were supposed to be rain mixed with snow or a brief change over to snow. both times there was no real cold nearby, and a cold core upper low was coming through. Right at sunset the dynamic cooling went to work and the rain turned to big old silver dollar snowflakes. We didn't have internet back then so we didn't have access to all these models, so I didn't get to see what the meteorologist were seeing, but I remember the forecast being similar to these. I would look for the change over to be in the northwestern corner of the storm, west and northwest of the surface LP, possibly beginning in the late afternoon when the surface LP begins to intensify and the precip begins to get heavier. Of course, the greatest chance of accumulation is gonna be in the higher elevations, but I think there could be some lower elevation surprises. the 3km NAM is beginning to hint at this.
 
packfan98 said:
Definitely. My high bar is to see a good 30 minute burst of snow in the air.
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Been mine since New years Day; Get the windshield or Mulch dusted up with something white besides Frost. We had what a 5 minute snow shower in December: Not even a drop of freezing drizzle,graupel,sleet. Which is very rare for our location this late in the season.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
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if we get anything this is how were going to do it, magic under the cold core. in my experience that precip is never really modeled right so this is probably the wildcard..
griteater said:
I think as much as anything we’ve just had a number of marginal, crappy setups ever since January 2019. The lone exception being the storm last Jan that hit the Upstate pretty hard. We’re not alone though. Same thing can be said in Philly & DC. Is it a new norm? I kind of doubt it, but none of us know for sure
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i'll maintain that we've just had bad luck, we've seen some sweet set-ups in the 5-9 day range the last few years that just haven't broken our way. sometimes you play really good football but have some bad fumble luck and some interceptions that aren't your fault. just gotta grin and move on man
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Guess we should have paid attention to the RGEM. It has been snowless for days.
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That’s what I said but was told it was a bad model. I default to the most conservative models for ATL as they are always right or have been the last 5 years or so.


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ATLwxfan said:
That’s what I said but was told it was a bad model. I default to the most conservative models for ATL as they are always right or have been the last 5 years or so.


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Guess it depends on where you're at. I remember busting to the high side Feb 2020.

Here is a pic of that one.
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ATLwxfan said:
I’m thinking of ITP Atlanta and near suburbs. Buford geographically is in a more favorable location.


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Again, depends on the set-up and where you're at. I grew up in Kennesaw, GA and still have family there. They often get a better snow than we do because it can take longer for the cold to travel across the mountains and reach us. South of I20 folks I just feel bad for.

This storm is a crap shoot. I plan to chase to NE GA Sunday morning.
 
Nerman said:
Again, depends on the set-up and where you're at. I grew up in Kennesaw, GA and still have family there. They often get a better snow than we do because it can take longer for the cold to travel across the mountains and reach us. South of I20 folks I just feel bad for.

This storm is a crap shoot. I plan to chase to NE GA Sunday morning.
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You’ll likely see flakes. I think we can agree that it is highly location specific as you stated. But in town Atlanta does not do well.


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