olhausen
Member
Sure do. This thing coming west so fast middle Tennessee will be to far east by tomorrow ?
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
People are all doom because it didn't go well in the carolinas but I have to question if it made it better or worse for GA so I know if I should be with you hoping it to stop or hoping it stays like this.
Now that I see the above I hope it goes back
Now that I see the above I hope it goes back
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
"off cycle" runs are just as reliable as "on cycle" runs. The most accurate forecast is typically the most recent one. That goes for all models, not just ECMWF.
rburrel2
Member
Is the 18z GFS more accurate than the 12z Euro? I've always wondered this, but dunno if anyone tracks verification scores like that.
You're welcome
Nomanslandva
Member
18z euro was amped and looked NW. 18z GFS was SE to the point rke was almost dry. Lots of work to do on this one.
iGRXY
Member
That wouldn’t have ended well for Georgia either. That was going to be a Nashville special.
There’s no cold air to tap! How’s this possibleA view of the cold temperatures that the upper low is bringing with it aloft (from 12z Euro at 700mb)...
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
I've not seen statistics on this, but I imagine that the 18z GFS would be more accurate than the 12z ECMWF for closer range forecasts, and the 12z ECMWF would be more accurate in the longer range (>48hrs).
Brad 
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
if you compress the troposphere, temperatures decrease dynamically. Pressure drops, air rises, temperatures drop.
That’s what I am saying!!!
IDK. I would think that cole-core would slide ENE tucked in behind the developing coastal. I'll take my chances with that stout UUL moving northeastward from south central Ga.
Here in SC you could have every model on your side except one. And deep down you know that one, regardless of which one it is will be correct and all the others will cave to it. Goofus will still be Goofus for awhile. We'll get NAM'd and other short range models will offer hope. But I'd bet the farm they all look like the 18Z Euro just did once we get inside 24 hrs. I've been around too long to fall for it.
Yeah that Euro run was a little bit surprising that the track of the surface low stayed the same while the upper low shifted west. You would think that the upper low would follow in tandem with a deepening surface low on the coast
J1C1111
Member
Preach brother. I hate to hear it but your probably going to be right. I hope not but we haven't caught a break around here in a long time.
Tarheelwx
Member
Keep in mind the storm wasn’t complete when the 18z Euro ended. There was likely a lot more to happen on Sunday.
TW
TW
packfan98
Moderator
18z EPS will show the whole storm here in a few minutes.
You must be in Beaufort or Charleston,
Maybe the midlands?
Parker
Member
Upper level lows are crazy. I remember not having any snow expected in March of 2009 and then it came out of nowhere. I was a freshman in high school and was at the state basketball playoff games and came out to winter storm warnings about 24-36 hours before it started.
With these massive changes 84-96 hours out, there is no telling what this system will do. I’m still keeping an eye on it even for our area. I just hope someone on here gets smoked who hasn’t seen snow in awhile!
With these massive changes 84-96 hours out, there is no telling what this system will do. I’m still keeping an eye on it even for our area. I just hope someone on here gets smoked who hasn’t seen snow in awhile!