Wintry 2/11-2/12 ULL Magic or More Cold Rain

[SnowNiner]

That looks great. Hopefully the GFS is right. Has a lot going against it though.

The GEFS clearly looks like a threat and has gotten better all day, which is strange. You would think it would have blinked by now. It's the only thing keeping me hanging on, really. But it's the furthest south of everybody else, and the coldest I think. If this thing pulls north I will never forget. GEFS will be on my list. ?

 

[rburrel2]

Strictly looking at the 18z NAM. Northeast Georgia and Upstate SC would definitely get an hour or two of sleet before switching over to snow. Looks like rain would change to sleet from west to east starting in Northeast Georgia around 3am or so. Couldn't rule out a prolonged sleet event either if we get a layer around 850mb that sticks around just above freezing.

(Even though the cold wedge is stronger to the east... the warm nose is too strong at first for eastern locations... I think you'd need warm nose temps barely above freezing in a tiny section of the sounding to get sleet... hence the west to east transition. imo)

 

[WEATHERBOYROY]

Dang, this one is gonna sting hard for us in MS, AL and most of GA.

Maybe not, still have a lot of details to work out, and were pretty close if we can get heavy precip as is modelled by some. still have a very good trend on the rgem and at this range I would trust it as much or more than any of the other models. I have seen the models miss the winners and losers with these type storms on the day of the event.

 

[rburrel2]

Forysth/Hall county Georgia is already flipping to sleet/mangled refrozen flakes at 1am if the NAM is to be believed. This sounding is just west of Gainesville, Ga at 1am when better lift/dynamics are just about to move in.

 

[SD]

GFS wants to flip a lot of NC over to snow/sleet during the initial surge Saturday night



Not sure of the algo used to get to this product but it shows a widespread snow depth after this passes

 

[griteater]

EPS % Chance of at least 1 inch of Snow....5 model run trend

 

[griteater]

A view of the cold temperatures that the upper low is bringing with it aloft (from 12z Euro at 700mb)...

 

[iGRXY]

Can already tell the euro is going to be more amplified.
Also more stream separation with the northern branch

 

[iGRXY]

Lowering heights in the northeast. Stream separation and more amplified system

 

[SnowNiner]

EPS % Chance of at least 1 inch of Snow....5 model run trend

The EPS jump today was encouraging. That I think certainly puts the foothills in play. Imo, the piedmonts got a way to go. Who knows, maybe gfs scores a couple here.

 

[iGRXY]

Excellent

 

[SnowNiner]

View attachment 132610
Excellent

Need more ridging over the top though to push it south I think. Strong is good, but need it south too.

 

[Lilychandler]

View attachment 132608
Lowering heights in the northeast. Stream separation and more amplified system

Is that good or bad

 

[iGRXY]

 

[Chandler]

might trend to a memphis mauler at this point

 

[accu35]

View attachment 132611

Would this still hit the mountains/foothills?

 

[Flotown]

And NC/SC most likely.

w

View attachment 132611

am i wrong in saying from that look at 500 mb that there shoould be some heavy precip in north bama..preferabky nw bama??

 

[Flotown]

w
am i wrong in saying from that look at 500 mb that there shoould be some heavy precip in north bama..preferabky nw bama??

nevermind ,just seen other post

 

[SD]

Would this still hit the mountains/foothills?

The Ozarks might be safe at this point

 

[iGRXY]

Yeah she hit a hard left