BOOM.
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NAM is c o o k i n g.. this run is about to be the best yet for NGA/ATL!
Oh my ??
Cash. Me. In.
I would have to imagine that that’s going to move north and a bit east and be perfect for upstate sc.
iGRXY
Member
I like it
Ron Burgundy
Member
Dang. Bullseye ~50 hours out. Feels…weird.
10:1 slop
iGRXY
Member
Sizable shift east. Want to see that continue
rburrel2
Member
NAM is more amped than any other model...(but still crushes North GA and the upstate), not buying it. Hrrr looks much better.
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There is a max area of snowfall showing up now on almost all models. It is between Buchanan, Cedartown, Rockmart and Dallas, GA. NAM shows them switching over to snow earlier than other areas, around 10 pm Saturday. If that holds, they could see 5" to 6" maybe more. It's where the elevation jumps up a bit (over 1,000 ft and probably 1,100 to 1,200 on ridges). I'm at 850 so if it switches here, it's probably going to be one of the last spots in my area. I'll enjoy my digital hypothetical NAM'ing for a few more minutes!
LovingGulfLows
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The upper level low is deepening so much its bringing down the troposphere on the NAM. Its really creating it’s own cold air. -4/-5c 850s in the heart of the storm. With those cold mid level temps and heavy precip, thats no doubt gonna be snow.
Difference between the 12km and 3km NAM
Alert: Being more adamant about removing banter from this thread. No offense.
Banter thread here: https://southernwx.com/community/threads/winter-22-23-whamby-and-banter-thread-part-2.1158/
Banter thread here: https://southernwx.com/community/threads/winter-22-23-whamby-and-banter-thread-part-2.1158/
rburrel2
Member
Just showing some proof here that the NAM tends to be over-amped at this range. Here's what it showed for out last storm system 40hrs out. Compared to 10hrs out.
rburrel2
Member
I didn't see until now but the 18z JMA made a huge shift south and east at 18z when compared to 12z. Also colder at 850mb.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Yes this run brought me from 0 to 7, certainty a huge difference
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
How do we ? this east more? Speed it up? Impossible at this point?
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It’s a delicate dance for now between it being strong enough to create dynamic cooling and being weak enough that it doesn’t go due north
lexxnchloe
Member
Would be awesome to see in a such a warm winter that these areas get a big snow. What is the Atlanta record for Feb snows?
Snow_chaser
Member
Yes, a few years ago when this area of western Georgia got a foot of snow in that first week of December. I’m sure a totally different setup, but they weren’t calling for anything like that. Plus we’ve been known to get a decent snow or ice event on Super Bowl weekend lol
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
Very true. I think they were saying like an inch or two and then some areas got over 10". Seems like many of the best snows in GA kind of came as a surprise.
00z GFS
Not mad at it, overall slightly better run the 18z, with slightly more snow east of the mountains 
850mb Low and Temperatures on the GFS
This would continue charlottes record of having measurable snow every year since records have been kept. I’m here for it. I’ll also be in Winston Salem and I’ll support this upper level low snow chase
ATLwxfan
Member
Squinting for flakes in the cold rain for many of us. Feast or famine.
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Areas in ETN went from nothing to over a foot in one run rotfl
accu35
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Maggie Valley should do good with that look
Showmeyourtds
Member
Erh my gentle Jesus...feast or famine along Moreland Avenue thru the ATL
Think I may chase this one a little. I'm willing to put my dog Ellie in the car and drive 30-40 miles for 6" if it doesn't set up nicely imby...
SimeonNC
Member
I know ensembles don't matter at this point but the GEFS is pretty good for the 77 corridor westward.
severestorm
Member
Brad's forecast map
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Old mean
New mean
Perhaps increased confidence in heavy snow making it into SW VA
MMFS is coming in now.. already getting decent snow in the mountains by 2z! Shaping up to be a nice run.
ATLwxfan
Member
I know we should be looking at mesoscale models right now but somehow the GEFS feels right.
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