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Wintry 2/11-2/12 ULL Magic or More Cold Rain

TWC is really conservative on the Blairsville forecast. Guess they are not buying into a stronger system?

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I somehow doubt any forecaster is behind this. Probably completely computer generated based on some or whatever model they use.
 
I somehow doubt any forecaster is behind this. Probably completely computer generated based on some or whatever model they use.
Not a very good model if that's true. I haven't seen any not give at least some accumulation for that area or yours.
 
Man, I just had a chance to look over the 18Z NAM closely for northern and north-central Georgia. She's a beaut. In fact, I'd venture to say underdone!

These are 40 miles east of Atlanta. Better as you go west. Deep layer saturation just after the onset obliterates the above-freezing layer soon after. It takes several hours, but I would not be surprised one bit if heavier rates flipped it even sooner.

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From Spann:

TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Most of the state will be dry tomorrow with only a few showers over the southern quarter of the state; the sun could peek out at times, and the high will be generally in the 60s.

Over the weekend, a cold core upper trough will pass over the state. This will bring periods of rain Saturday with temperatures in the 40s and 50s. Then, Saturday night and early Sunday, there is a chance the rain could change to light snow over parts of North and East Alabama thanks to dynamic cooling under the trough. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s; for now major impacts are not expected. But, with these cold core systems they can bring some surprises, so watch for potential forecast changes.
 
How about let's all agree to just let people enjoy whatever they find to enjoy regarding this possible storm.. this is a forum for everyone and I for one just like the child that snow brings out of people!!
Yeah cause in the End no one can predict what ULLs will do. They have minds of their own and can do crazy stuff. Even the Models will not pick up on every detail. Just sit back Sunday morning and watch the Fun begin!

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RGEM probably closest to the reality of what we’ll see in NGa. Temps are


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The model that has been on an island while others are in a general direction favoring N GA, that doesn't seem to grasp dynamic cooling, and could very much be off might not be reality. Reality will set in when we verify and know if it was wrong or right.
 
I find it noteworthy that the forecasted forward speed of the 500Mb low crawls across Ga. and S.C. It actually takes the better part of 24 hours to move from the SW Ga. border to the S.C. coast with a near stall over NE Ga. for 6-9 hours.

As I alluded to in an earlier post, the potential is there for this one to really overperform IF the NAM is right on the thermals.

09Z:
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18 hours later!

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I find it noteworthy that the forecasted forward speed of the 500Mb low crawls across Ga. and S.C. It actually takes the better part of 24 hours to move from the SW Ga. border to the S.C. coast with a near stall over NE Ga. for 6-9 hours.

As I alluded to in an earlier post, the potential is there for this one to really overperform IF the NAM is right on the thermals.

09Z:
View attachment 132816

18 hours later!

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What exactly is the reason for the slow movement?? You wouldn’t expect that with no downstream blocking. Is the low in the 50/50 region really working that well?
 
What exactly is the reason for the slow movement?? You wouldn’t expect that with no downstream blocking. Is the low in the 50/50 region really working that well?
My read is it's a result of its complete detachment from the northern stream, and a response to the deepening coastal surface low.
 
I’m in Lenoir and feel like the adjacent foothills are bordering on an impactful event so close. Probably won’t know until go time. These upper lows always surprise you. March 09 was sickening in this area


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I’m in Lenoir and feel like the adjacent foothills are bordering on an impactful event so close. Probably won’t know until go time. These upper lows always surprise you. March 09 was sickening in this area


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I remember that satellite picture the day after that storm and you could see that strip that of bare ground while areas on either side had a few inches. I know that had to be frustrating
 
I’m in Lenoir and feel like the adjacent foothills are bordering on an impactful event so close. Probably won’t know until go time. These upper lows always surprise you. March 09 was sickening in this area


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No doubt!


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It’s cutoff.

If it's cut off from the flow with no steering current per se, what is causing it to make a beeline NE instead of just slowly drifting East off the coast?
 
The cliff note is the further west the track of the 500Mb low tracks, the further west the best snow will fall. A boulder of salt on both models at this range is in order too.
especially the 3k being at the end of its range but it is really good at this warm nose stuff.
 
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