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This might finally be the time that Asheville is the jackpot in the entire mountains
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I somehow doubt any forecaster is behind this. Probably completely computer generated based on some or whatever model they use.
In general if Atlanta area mentions snow, NC Piedmont does good. So I'm loving all the trends for GA!
NoSnowATL
Member
Not always and especially will ULLs.
Nope that will never happen downslope city. Now Hendersonville back toward Brevard and Highlands is where the jackpot will be. Take it to the bank.
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
Do you think Brevard will do better than Waynesville ?
Not a very good model if that's true. I haven't seen any not give at least some accumulation for that area or yours.
Man, I just had a chance to look over the 18Z NAM closely for northern and north-central Georgia. She's a beaut. In fact, I'd venture to say underdone!
These are 40 miles east of Atlanta. Better as you go west. Deep layer saturation just after the onset obliterates the above-freezing layer soon after. It takes several hours, but I would not be surprised one bit if heavier rates flipped it even sooner.
These are 40 miles east of Atlanta. Better as you go west. Deep layer saturation just after the onset obliterates the above-freezing layer soon after. It takes several hours, but I would not be surprised one bit if heavier rates flipped it even sooner.
How about let's all agree to just let people enjoy whatever they find to enjoy regarding this possible storm.. this is a forum for everyone and I for one just like the child that snow brings out of people!!
buckinbronco
Member
18z GFS has roughly the same snow footprint as 12z
From Spann:
TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Most of the state will be dry tomorrow with only a few showers over the southern quarter of the state; the sun could peek out at times, and the high will be generally in the 60s.
Over the weekend, a cold core upper trough will pass over the state. This will bring periods of rain Saturday with temperatures in the 40s and 50s. Then, Saturday night and early Sunday, there is a chance the rain could change to light snow over parts of North and East Alabama thanks to dynamic cooling under the trough. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s; for now major impacts are not expected. But, with these cold core systems they can bring some surprises, so watch for potential forecast changes.
TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Most of the state will be dry tomorrow with only a few showers over the southern quarter of the state; the sun could peek out at times, and the high will be generally in the 60s.
Over the weekend, a cold core upper trough will pass over the state. This will bring periods of rain Saturday with temperatures in the 40s and 50s. Then, Saturday night and early Sunday, there is a chance the rain could change to light snow over parts of North and East Alabama thanks to dynamic cooling under the trough. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s; for now major impacts are not expected. But, with these cold core systems they can bring some surprises, so watch for potential forecast changes.
Snownut
Member
Yeah cause in the End no one can predict what ULLs will do. They have minds of their own and can do crazy stuff. Even the Models will not pick up on every detail. Just sit back Sunday morning and watch the Fun begin!
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Idk Waynesville has better elevation but Brevard is going to get more precip due to lift from BR. Highlands is where I'd go best of both u got elevation and lift for enhanced rates.
iGRXY
Member
Highlands and Lake Toxaway get mauled in these types of setups. That's where I'd go if I was going to chase. But I think I will take my chances here to at least see snow.
ATLwxfan
Member
RGEM probably closest to the reality of what we’ll see in NGa. Temps are 
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RGEM isn’t that good so I’m not worried
ATLwxfan
Member
18z GFS has roughly the same snow footprint as 12z
Love the North Fulton snow hole.
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severestorm
Member
Nice uptick in the totals on the 18z GFS ensembles
UNCSC
Member
Somebody in northeast Georgia and north west SC gonna get smacked.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
The model that has been on an island while others are in a general direction favoring N GA, that doesn't seem to grasp dynamic cooling, and could very much be off might not be reality. Reality will set in when we verify and know if it was wrong or right.RGEM probably closest to the reality of what we’ll see in NGa. Temps are
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rburrel2
Member
The 21z RAP is a beaut. Faster, further south, more positively tilted, and colder in the midlevels when comparing to the NAM/GFS.
rburrel2
Member
Latest MMFS thru 11z.. 1km resolution and 4km resolution.
I find it noteworthy that the forecasted forward speed of the 500Mb low crawls across Ga. and S.C. It actually takes the better part of 24 hours to move from the SW Ga. border to the S.C. coast with a near stall over NE Ga. for 6-9 hours.
As I alluded to in an earlier post, the potential is there for this one to really overperform IF the NAM is right on the thermals.
09Z:
18 hours later!
As I alluded to in an earlier post, the potential is there for this one to really overperform IF the NAM is right on the thermals.
09Z:
18 hours later!
What exactly is the reason for the slow movement?? You wouldn’t expect that with no downstream blocking. Is the low in the 50/50 region really working that well?
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3k NAM is really good at sniffing out warm noses
iGRXY
Member
It’s cutoff.
My read is it's a result of its complete detachment from the northern stream, and a response to the deepening coastal surface low.
MMFS sounding for 10z on Sunday at KMGE (Marietta, Ga)
I think MMFS will be particularly useful in this event because it has a lot of vertical layers concentrated close to the surface (more than any other model that I know of), so it should be able to have a very good handle on the near surface thermal activity.
I’m in Lenoir and feel like the adjacent foothills are bordering on an impactful event so close. Probably won’t know until go time. These upper lows always surprise you. March 09 was sickening in this area
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Ron Burgundy
Member
FFC just added SN to my grid!
I remember that satellite picture the day after that storm and you could see that strip that of bare ground while areas on either side had a few inches. I know that had to be frustrating
The 3K NAM is much further north into Alabama with the 500Mb low than the 12K NAM.
She's a fickle little beast.
Lilychandler
Member
What effect does this haveThe 3K NAM is much further north into Alabama with the 500Mb low than the 12K NAM.
She's a fickle little beast.
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Possibly much less snow because youre starting off warmer in the atmosphere.
If it's cut off from the flow with no steering current per se, what is causing it to make a beeline NE instead of just slowly drifting East off the coast?
The cliff note is the further west the track of the 500Mb low tracks, the further west the best snow will fall. A boulder of salt on both models at this range is in order too.
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especially the 3k being at the end of its range but it is really good at this warm nose stuff.