iGRXY
Member
I have some bad news lol
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WOW! that is an old school image. People really have no idea how hard it used to be to do this hobby.Here is the Day 7 forecast from the Euro for March 2009. It looks like the current GFS lol. I know the UL track ticked NW close to go time (shocker)
I think it drifted 75-100 miles N in the end but honestly, it wasn’t that dramatic
The lack of an Arctic airmass close by is really why I doubt we’ll see a snow footprint outside the mountains as expansive as what the GFS was showing… even if it’s exactly correct on the track. IMO I think there will be an area of accumulating snow outside of the mountains, but I think it will most likely be in a band 60-80 miles wide or less… only were you see the best dynamic cooling. The March 2009 storm had a great fresh cold air mass to the north and a significant shot coming In behind the front… areas that got snow cover east of the mountains saw highs stay in the 30s for two days after. Now if that SE Canada does keep trending further south, that could definitely change.
Tokenfreak
Member
Its ok I know I'm use to it lol.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Most of the really upper low events around here (including aforementioned Mar 2009 by another poster) don't fully cut off from the mean flow like this, where a ridge comes over the top & completely seals off cold air transport altogether. There's usually at least some modest interaction w/ the polar branch of the jet that continually feeds some cold air into the base of the upper low & it's all we usually need to change rain to heavy wet snow in the piedmont + coastal plain. Maybe a slightly stronger 50-50 low will help us out there as I've noticed the EPS + GEFS are trending in that direction, but we risk getting more ice than snow in such a case (bleh).
I'd love to see an event like this weekend actually pan out beyond the mountains, because of the thousands of storms I've looked at/analyzed, I can't think of or remember any upper low cases that did really well outside the mtns when there wasn't a little additional help coming from somewhere in the northern branch of the jet. It's just too warm most times to get a good snow from a totally cut off upper trough underneath a Rex Block. Those kind of setups even struggle big time out here in New Mexico, and I have an additional 4,000-5,000 feet of elevation to work with.
Famous last words, but I'll be a little more cautiously optimistic here than I'd like to be & I'll just assume that a storm like this at this time of the year isn't near-impossible, but rather it just hasn't been observed yet. The 4"+ snowfall from a cut off upper low near Columbia, SC on Nov 1, 2014 is reassuring proof of that.
I scored pretty darn good with that storm here with about 6" of paste. My Dad's house ten miles east got close to 10".
I'm convinced had the storm occurred at night, a foot or more would have accumulated here. 34-35 degrees throughout, with tater chips so big I could spot them as they left the cloud base yet they struggled to accumulate until late afternoon when the March sun angle lost its punch.
That’s good to hear. I miss him doing those videos just about daily. He has a wealth of knowledge, especially for all the regional microclimates we have in the Carolinas
Snowlover87
Member
I think most of the precip had ended where I lived by the time late afternoon arrived, probably why it didnt accumulate much.
Ron Burgundy
Member
New AFD from FFC. Still taking the wait-and-see approach, which only makes sense, but they definitely are…interested.
The upper cutoff low will drift eastward into Georgia from late Saturday night into Sunday morning. These cutoff upper lows can present a tricky forecast as far as ptype this time of year, but at this point temperature profiles look to mainly support chilly rain showers for the bulk of the area Sunday morning.
However, some potential remains for a rain/snow mix or snow showers,
particularly across the mountains of north Georgia. This forecast will continue to be refined over the next couple of days given the complex thermodynamic environment associated with upper lows, but for now little in the way of accumulating snow appears likely locally with the highest potential for rain/snow or snow showers in far north Georgia.
The upper cutoff low will drift eastward into Georgia from late Saturday night into Sunday morning. These cutoff upper lows can present a tricky forecast as far as ptype this time of year, but at this point temperature profiles look to mainly support chilly rain showers for the bulk of the area Sunday morning.
However, some potential remains for a rain/snow mix or snow showers,
particularly across the mountains of north Georgia. This forecast will continue to be refined over the next couple of days given the complex thermodynamic environment associated with upper lows, but for now little in the way of accumulating snow appears likely locally with the highest potential for rain/snow or snow showers in far north Georgia.
Us Eastern folks need about 3 more of these:
yeah we need it in SC
I was going to mention that November 2014 system. Also take a look at the 2/12/1999 system I mentioned earlier. I’m not sure on the H5 set up on that. I was going to look on your site, but it’s not up there… you have the map for a different storm that happened about a week later.
rburrel2
Member
It ticked 15-20 miles north in the last 24 hours before go time b/c I remember it took me from being outside the deform band to being squarely in the middle of it... and I was bouncing off the walls with excitement over the last minute shift.
100 miles east of Charleston
WSNC
Member
SnowNiner
Member
12z GFS Ens / CMC Ens / Euro Ens Comparison for when the wave is running thru the Palmetto State
Looks like the gfs has the strongest ridging over top, and thus the furthest south track. Man, I just wish it was right for once.
All in all, to me, the heaviest snow footprint today continues to be along the mountains areas, except the gfs op. Until we see the ensembles expand a good bit east showing the snow is less confined there, im afraid the Piedmont is just getting teased with noise. There's just not enough cold air.
WSNC
Member
mydoortotheworld
Member
Does anyone have any of the EPS member maps for snowfall from wxbell?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The best out for folks in the piedmont have is get a deeper/slower 50-50 low, another day or so for that to trend favorably and allow for a little more cold air transport at least initially, but it still wouldn't be great. Imagine if we had a 50-50 that was even a third as strong as the one that triggered the massive cold outbreak in New England last week ?.
I got 6 or 7 inches here with that storm in March 09.
Another freak storm that I haven't seen mentioned was May 5-9 1992.
GSP reported their latest snowfall on record (May 7 1992).
There was moderate rain & 38 then it got heavy & changed over to huge wet snowflakes for 30 mins to an hour.
Never accumulated but it was something to behold in May.
If I'm not mistaken that was a cutoff bowling ball low.
Just didn't produce because of how late it was in the season.
Mt Pisgah & other mountain locations got buried that storm.