Wintry 2/11-2/12 ULL Magic or More Cold Rain

[BIG FROSTY]

Rut Roh _ Don't know if this good or bad!








Joe Bastardi

@BigJoeBastardi
·
44m

Big noreaster Sunday and Monday for the Carolinas into the mid Atlantic states with heavy snows from the Western CCarolinas up through much of Western Virginia. Gale force winds on the coast with heavy rain and coastal flooding.

 

[SD]

This gfs run is probably going to raise wranglers quarterly earnings

 

[iGRXY]

ULL a tad further SW. 50/50 region trended better

 

[iGRXY]

GFS probably going to be great

 

[DopplerWx]

Wtf

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023020818/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_15.png

 

[iGRXY]

View attachment 132579
ULL a tad further SW. 50/50 region trended better

50/50 region is yum

 

[Mitch West]

Augusta special. wtf

 

[griteater]

Another deep southerly track from the GFS, but it looked like it wasn't quite as strong / deep with the upper low, so the column wasn't as cold on a widespread basis

 

[buckinbronco]

Classes cancelled at Georgia Southern on Monday

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

So marginal you could easily go rain to snow to rain to sleet to rain to snow .. this is going to be ugly lol but we will try and get it done no matter what .. still a forecasting nightmare imo. You see really heavy bands you’re going to get mixed if not all snow in some localized places which would cause weird travel conditions but I could see those bands being really anywhere with the areas most likely to pick up actual accumulations being towards the mountains .. but still I’ve never seen something as marginal as this

 

[KyloG]

Another deep southerly track from the GFS, but it looked like it wasn't quite as strong / deep with the upper low, so the column wasn't as cold on a widespread basis

The track was awesome though.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Classes cancelled at Georgia Southern on Monday

Statesboro Slammer. Not far from @GaWx now ? And a couple ticks from a Hogtown Hammer

 

[rburrel2]

I think we can safely toss this run. Still the only model with that far south and east evolution of the 5h low.

 

[griteater]

The track was awesome though.

It really was. Just need it to go gangbusters on the strength scale to get the cooling

 

[WSNC]

I think we can safely toss this run. Still the only model with that far south and east evolution of the 5h low.
View attachment 132582

I don't know. GFS was first to sniff this out and ensembles were further east.

 

[rburrel2]

Pretty easy to spot the outlier.. Not pictured but the ICON and JMA are also in agreement with the other modeling.

.

 

[tractor girl]

Wtf

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023020818/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_15.png

With that NW trend I'm sitting pretty ?

Of course what's more likely to happen is ?

 

[griteater]

Pretty easy to spot the outlier..

.View attachment 132584

Yeah GFS is the outlier, but if I'm you, I'd want the outlier being south like that. One other thing is that both the EPS and CMCE bumped south at 12z

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

With that NW trend I'm sitting pretty ?

Of course what's more likely to happen is ?

All else being equal, I like where our area is sitting. NW trend rarely doesn't happen. Marginal as heck, but it beats looking at 10MB charts for an SSWE unicorn with my AM coffee for a month.

 

[mydoortotheworld]

All else being equal, I like where our area is sitting. NW trend rarely doesn't happen. Marginal as heck, but it beats looking at 10MB charts for an SSWE unicorn with my AM coffee for a month.

Considering Augusta’s the bullseye this far out one could consider that points NW will be sitting pretty with this look, if BL temps can cooperate, but if what GFS is saying is true and if I’m interpreting correctly what I’m seeing here so far, rate driven is (as stated before) obviously key since surface temps are not great to begin with?