- Joined
- Jan 23, 2021
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- 3,897
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- Location
- Lebanon Township, Durham County NC
I definitely wasn't expecting that from the Euro! Trying to get back to a NW of I-85 deal. I still think any accumulation will be limited to west of I-77, but I'd happily take a burst of snow in the air. Thanks for posting.
Also looked like it tried to start as snow so take that for what its worthI definitely wasn't expecting that from the Euro! Trying to get back to a NW of I-85 deal. I still think any accumulation will be limited to west of I-77, but I'd happily take a burst of snow in the air. Thanks for posting.
Do you have a pic further west?
Mama cita! Upstate special right there12z MMFS final.. regional 4km followed by local 1km.
18z run will be starting immediately.
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Man that snowfall forecast is so cool! Thanks for the labor running these for us.12z MMFS final.. regional 4km followed by local 1km. BTW- These aren't a specific ratio (such as 10:1), it's a explicit model snowfall forecast, based on radiation and land surface model soil/land temperature.
18z run will be starting immediately.
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This is definitely one of the more complicated/difficult forecasts that we see in the SE US. I don't anticipate that we'll have a clear model consensus until <24 hrs in advance.You know what's really crazy? You can point to about anywhere on a map of GA/SC/NC and that spot is sweating a different aspect of the sounding profile for snow it various times and it has near nothing to do with traditional climo.
It's pretty wonky when you factor in the circular nature of the cold pool, the boundary layer issues which are worse in non CAD areas including mountain valleys, time of day is another factor... just a really weird puzzle to put together.
Boone could theoretically stay all rain due to a persistent mid-level temp above freezing while it rips snow in atlanta with a column that's well below freezing all the way to the surface.
It really is. I wouldn’t be suprised if there aren’t still some surprises in store over the next couple days. There’s gonna be a quickly deepening low on the coast and in the past that’s often translated to heavy snow spreading further south and east in the Piedmont from what was thought 72 hours earlier. Even in cases of smaller to localized events. I remember the 4/2/2019 storm that gave southeast CLT metro a quick 1-3”… 24 hours earlier it was looking like that band was going to set up near GSP.18z euro getting really close again for CLT/85 in general
The level of detail here is amazing. You've nailed the micro-climate battle lines for events like this one in Oconee/Pickens county with that model. You can see the lakes and even less accumulation on the west side from the wind direction blowing over them. It also has the trapped warm pocket in the northern part of my county.(which has happened in the past and pretty much exactly where your model is showing).12z MMFS final.. regional 4km followed by local 1km. BTW- These aren't a specific ratio (such as 10:1), it's a explicit model snowfall forecast, based on radiation and land surface model soil/land temperature.
18z run will be starting immediately.
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Thanks. That's the benefit of a 1km horizontal resolution w/ an independent land surface model, high vertical resolution in the PBL, and super-res (100m) geography input.The level of detail here is amazing. You've nailed the micro-climate battle lines for events like this one in Oconee/Pickens county with that model. You can see the lakes and even less accumulation on the west side from the wind direction blowing over them. It also has the trapped warm pocket in the northern part of my county.(which has happened in the past and pretty much exactly where your model is showing).
I’m all In. This model did a good job catching the loss of our Christmas time storm when it went from a coastal low to a monster cutter.18z run will be starting immediately.
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now in the air. Thanks for posting
What'd with the Euro screw job in SW VA?
This is gonna be such an exciting storm to see play out. Especially for those of us the edge from Atlanta to GSO, unless something goes terribly wrong(which is possible) the upstate SC boys are looking good.And just like that, CLT/GSO is back in the game with a 1” mean, more members look good, best run in about a day View attachment 132830
I'm in the yellow top image. Haywood County.12z MMFS final.. regional 4km followed by local 1km. BTW- These aren't a specific ratio (such as 10:1), it's a explicit model snowfall forecast, based on radiation and land surface model soil/land temperature.
18z run will be starting immediately.
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Looks really good actuallyAccuweather came out with their snow prediction
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Man, that’s a heavy band. With the warm ground, warm BL, etc. we’re going to need it, but if that came to fruition whoever ended up under that could pick up a few inches quickly!
I'm so close to the dark blue, I can almost taste it. ?Accuweather came out with their snow prediction
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Really hoping something changes but not sure what is needed. Further south ULL seems to have taken dynamics away, but the mor north solutions have major BL issues here. You look a little better up there to me.What'd with the Euro screw job in SW VA?
Looked like it was headed for gloryHRRR was still neutral at the end but about to tilt
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