Wintry 2/11-2/12 ULL Magic or More Cold Rain

[RBR71]

You guys in Northern Piedmont of NC getting a nice uptick from the Euro. It also wanted to have that deform band all the way across NC but bl temps sucked

 

[BIG FROSTY]

 

[BullCityWx]

You guys in Northern Piedmont of NC getting a nice uptick from the Euro. It also wanted to have that deform band all the way across NC but bl temps sucked

View attachment 132928

 

[RBR71]

I like this, it clearly shows the tail end of the deform band moving east along the border, but our ULL is weakening and rates aren't enough to overcome BL issues. There's moderate precip near end of the run with ULL and 850 low east of I-95 but but but

 

[RBR71]

Just think how much this sucks, if we had the cold air this entire band from central NC up to the Delmarva would be snow but alas....... what a shame

 

[Stormlover]

 

[BIG FROSTY]

 

[BIG FROSTY]

I like this, it clearly shows the tail end of the deform band moving east along the border, but our ULL is weakening and rates aren't enough to overcome BL issues. There's moderate precip near end of the run with ULL and 850 low east of I-95 but but but

Yeah it's a dang shame we finally get a good track and BL has to be so sucky! ?
Maybe somebody east of the mountains can pull a rabbit out of the hat and get a good dustup anyway...

 

[Flotown]

i can chase that with ease...lol

 

[PARSONBROWN]

i can chase that with ease...lol

What time we talking in North Alabama....early Sunday morning?

 

[NCHighCountryWX]

Cross Country Skiing should be best in Ashe, Parts of Alleghaney, Watauga and Avery

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Excellent write up from Ray

Boom or bust is abnormally high with this one

 

[rburrel2]

Pretty easy to see what went wrong here...

 

[Stormlover]

What time we talking in North Alabama....early Sunday morning?

late sat night, first thing sun am

 

[SnowQueen]

Mother Nature can do what she wants so ... she might surprise us

 

[Wildboutsnow]

Well at least I don't have to peel back all the chicken run netting to keep from caving under the 15 inches of snow. Geez!

 

[accu35]

18z HRRR looking good for WNC

 

[rburrel2]

Whew... what a comma head.

 

[Weatherlover92]

Got this notification alert not too long ago. Safe bet to cover all bases just in case…

 

[rburrel2]

If that comma head on the hrrr comes to fruition then NE GA and the Upstate will get plastered. verbatim the hrrr is a touch too warm at the surface but those kind of rates would overcome. The problem is the NAM models have the dry slot punching through way earlier than this....

 

[Ron Burgundy]

Got this notification alert not too long ago. Safe bet to cover all bases just in case…

Same. I’m sure most people who got it were like…wut?

 

[Thor]

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I’ve got rain/sn in the grid for Sunday morning. Let’s go

 

[rburrel2]

Not horrible.

 

[Rainforrest]

Winter storm watch up for the mountains.

 

[Tarheel1]

Nam is trying to suck me inView attachment 132914View attachment 132915

NAM has been really, really good on thermals this winter, especially 850s!

 

[Parker]

18z HRRR radar loop and temp loop from 6 PM Saturday to 6 AM Sunday. You couldn’t ask for better timing for us here in Alabama and we still are too warm. Just not meant to be on this one but it definitely sucks to not have the temps work out with that radar look on an ULL rolling through at night.

 

[severestorm]

18z NAM's even more cutoff. Trends are clear today.

 

[Tarheel1]

Nam is trying to suck me inView attachment 132914View attachment 132915

NAM from 2 days out VS radar day of

 

[BIG FROSTY]

What a dry slot on the 18z NAM. #fugly

 

[rburrel2]

Starting to look like somewhere in middle TN is going to jackpot under the deform band and overcome the warm surface layer.

 

[LukeBarrette]

Not horrible.View attachment 132937

A lot of that is sleet

 

[Tarheel1]

Icon looking ok! Look at the 850s over upstate

 

[iGRXY]

This is dead. I think even the mountains might max out around 6" max on the highest peaks. Consider it lucky if we get flakes flying anywhere below 1500'. ULL trend of further in Texas cooked this on the last leg of the race.

 

[olhausen]

View attachment 132940View attachment 132939

18z HRRR radar loop and temp loop from 6 PM Saturday to 6 AM Sunday. You couldn’t ask for better timing for us here in Alabama and we still are too warm. Just not meant to be on this one but it definitely sucks to not have the temps work out with that radar look on an ULL rolling through at night.

Man if this was just another 25 miles to the west I’d be in that deform band.

 

[bouncycorn]

Oddly enough, MMFS is sticking to it's guns. I'm not really buying this solution but will share it FWIW.

 

[rburrel2]

Oddly enough, MMFS is sticking to it's guns. I'm not really buying this solution but will share it FWIW.

It must look like the RAP and Hrrr with the comma head action Sunday morning.

 

[rburrel2]

Man if this was just another 25 miles to the west I’d be in that deform band.

I wouldn't count yourself out yet. It might wind up there.

 

[MichaelJ]

I wouldn't count yourself out yet. It might wind up there.

"He's dead Jim"

For those interested, the European 45 day for 2/12 to 3/27 show the SE being below normal with above normal precip.

 

[Tarheel1]

Icon looking ok! Look at the 850s over upstate View attachment 132948

GFS in lockstep! Rooting for y’all!