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Wintry 2/11-2/12 ULL Magic or More Cold Rain

Snowlover87 said:
Is the NAM reliable at this range ?
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Tbh I have never seen the NAM pull out a coup in its long range. I don’t believe the American models have too much grasp on reality ever. And it’s a shame. To the point of others, models in general haven’t done that great of a job either so I’d like to see this through several more cycles of NAM, NAM 3km, RGEM, and other short range guidance to get some more confidence on trends and such. Regardless of what’s being shown now we just need more cold air. Sure we can manufacture our own with good rates and such but in a set up so damn marginal like this one I just don’t think I can trust anything throwing out large snow accumulations for anyone outside of the mountains .. and even there looks like a pasty white water mess. Give me some colder 850 trends over the next couple days or I’m not budging .. cold rain.
 
ForsythSnow said:
While I do agree to some extent with the NAM being bad, the shifts from the other globals right now are just as bad in this instance so they're all about fair game unless one stabilizes first and the rest fall in line. Remember this was a NC/VA storm a day ago and the globals all thought that?
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Agreed… and like I said before while I don’t put much stock into precip output from the NAM at this range, I do feel that it’s beneficial in tracking features.
 
ForsythSnow said:
While I do agree to some extent with the NAM being bad, the shifts from the other globals right now are just as bad in this instance so they're all about fair game unless one stabilizes first and the rest fall in line. Remember this was a NC/VA storm a day ago and the globals all thought that?
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Found the guy who got nammed
 
NAM has had its long range coups. It used to have benefit because it was the only non-hydrostatic model to go to 84hrs. Nowadays GFS is non-hydrostatic.. only thing NAM has over GFS at this point is that NAM runs on a WRF core which better than the UFS-FV3 core that the new GFS runs on..
Either way, this is the last year that we will have NAM, so enjoy it.. after this year it'll just be GFS and RRFS in terms of american models. No more NAM3, no more NAM12, No more SREF, no more HRRR...
 
griteater said:
I dare you to ask @Rain Cold that question. He's likely to give you a "No" preceded with an expletive. For me, none of the models are awesome anymore. Just throw them all together and take bits and pieces from each. I've seen the NAM have good value at range
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The NAM is absolutely valuable from 54+ because it shows you with amazing accuracy exactly what will not happen. Weather forecasting is pretty tough, so anytime you can rule stuff out, that's good!
 
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Luckily even without NAM, MMFS will still be here to provide long range HIRES outputs. Here's the MMFS Hires so far, looks like it's cookin up something good.
 
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