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Wintry 2/11-2/12 ULL Magic or More Cold Rain

Warm upper level low closing off way too south. Rooted in zero significant cold air source. Completely reliant on dynamic cooling due to increased precip rates. Unfortunately, there wasn’t much to get excited about from 2-3 days ago. If you ever have to rely on the American models to come through for you.. just know you’re playing a losing match. Almost every time this year they have failed forecasts even within 48 hours. Unfortunate but I think we have better patterns to track down the road that can give us something more exciting to worry about once we hit march.
 
accu35 said:
That 18z Euro
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So strange. I don't have great maps but appears it may keep that deform band hugging the mountains and keeping them snow.

Everything else is pretty similar to other models. I'm sitting at 34-35 and rain in the dry slot with weak rates on other models. So maybe that's the difference.
 
metwannabe said:
True, I just looked at the 3k NAM, what a track of that ULL.... who knows
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I think we see a lot of posts that it's snowing for a good amount of people. Just having a hard time seeing how folks outside of a lucky few really get more than flakes in the air and maybe tinted grass
 
Snownut said:
Depends on where you're at, In FL I guess it would be a Fail. But NE GA, Parts of Upstate SC, and WNC is Definitely still Game

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oh, I know not here...lol I am talking about the SE as a whole. Yes, the higher terrain will do ok. NE GA, E TN and W NC *mtns mainly*
 
Snownut said:
Depends on where you're at, In FL I guess it would be a Fail. But NE GA, Parts of Upstate SC, and WNC is Definitely still Game

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Outside over extreme peaks over 3500-4000 ft more than likely everybody else ends in nothing. The upper low is not taking an adequate track and is not getting the dynamic cooling needed to drive snow below at most 2000ft. Don’t expect anything from this and be happy if you see flakes.
 
iGRXY said:
Outside over extreme peaks over 3500-4000 ft more than likely everybody else ends in nothing. The upper low is not taking an adequate track and is not getting the dynamic cooling needed to drive snow below at most 2000ft. Don’t expect anything from this and be happy if you see flakes.
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Man you Sure have Changed your mind it's comical LOL

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0z GFS
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Snownut said:
Man you Sure have Changed your mind it's comical LOL

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Well there’s nothing to see with this to think anybody outside of the mountains will get anything. That’s not comical, that’s being real about the situation. Wish cast all you want, it’s not going to change the fact that there’s not a model other than the long range RAP even showing snow showers in the upstate. Its wraps.
 
iGRXY said:
Well there’s nothing to see with this to think anybody outside of the mountains will get anything. That’s not comical, that’s being real about the situation. Wish cast all you want, it’s not going to change the fact that there’s not a model other than the long range RAP even showing snow showers in the upstate. Its wraps.
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LMAO

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iGRXY said:
Well there’s nothing to see with this to think anybody outside of the mountains will get anything. That’s not comical, that’s being real about the situation. Wish cast all you want, it’s not going to change the fact that there’s not a model other than the long range RAP even showing snow showers in the upstate. Its wraps.
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There has been pretty consistent modeling showing snow falling in N AL and GA. At least from ECMWF and HRRR.
 
I think there may be a few surprises, but I think there will be more heartbreaks. Even looking at the snow maps that are good, I think they have issues that are between the numbers. I am cheap and dont get euro soundings and kuchero maps, but what I can see for free, things are not great out there.
 
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