The GFS is going east it looks like with this as it now has the low passing CHS 50 miles to the southeast and not onshore until Wilmington NC. Tons of rain in eastern NC, with some places nearing 8 inches. It is basically dry for AL and northwest GA.
Pattern 12/15-19 Coastal!!!!!
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Windy, rainy with a 100% chance of meth
You will have to go much higher than Boone to at least 4500' to get the snow
Camp Chestnut Ridge. Loved going there when I was a kid.
Hurricane Hunters are going to check out the low.
Well it is likely to be a high impact event due to high winds and heavy rain for much of the east coast. Also there is a threat of coastal flooding as well. NOAA often uses the Hurricane Hunters during the winter months to gather data on what’s expected to be high impact events.
Going to have to be east of I-77 in the GSP county warning area to get much from this. The trend is obviously east, and it is not done yet in my opinion. I will be lucky to get .25 here from this.
I have confidence that guidance is still underdoing precip. JHS and co probably might not get the 2"+ totals but they won't whiff for sure.
Returns are filling in pretty fast from Macon to south ATL. Hoping we can overperform and squeeze an inch out of this.
(Now it feels like I’m talking about SN ?)
I was afraid of this ...
I talked about a potential of sting jets the other day...
From KCHS
High Winds --
There is a risk for high winds for Sunday. There could be two
distinct wind events; one in the morning with strong low-level
jetting in the warm sector with the second being a possible sting
jet scenario unfolding for the afternoon/evening. First, winds will
increase along the coast with gusts 40-45 mph likely. Gusts could be
locally higher along beaches and other exposed areas (such as areas
adjacent to the Charleston Harbor) where fictional influences will
be less. In fact, the 16/12z HREF mean shows wind gusts nearing 60
mph at times along parts of the Charleston County Coast. A Wind
Advisory has been posted 6 AM until 2 PM for all coastal zones to
account for these winds. There will also be an increased risk to
high-profile vehicles on the elevated bridges around the Charleston
and Savannah Metro Areas. The second event could unfold during the
afternoon hours as the mid-level cyclone passes by. There are
signals that a sting jet feature could develop along the nose of a
descending wind max within the cold conveyor positioned along the
west and southwest flanks of the mid-level cyclone. Sting jets are
notoriously difficult to forecast, but do have a well documented
history of producing wind damage. It will be interesting to see
how/if this materializes. Additional wind products may be needed if
this feature develops.
I talked about a potential of sting jets the other day...
From KCHS
High Winds --
There is a risk for high winds for Sunday. There could be two
distinct wind events; one in the morning with strong low-level
jetting in the warm sector with the second being a possible sting
jet scenario unfolding for the afternoon/evening. First, winds will
increase along the coast with gusts 40-45 mph likely. Gusts could be
locally higher along beaches and other exposed areas (such as areas
adjacent to the Charleston Harbor) where fictional influences will
be less. In fact, the 16/12z HREF mean shows wind gusts nearing 60
mph at times along parts of the Charleston County Coast. A Wind
Advisory has been posted 6 AM until 2 PM for all coastal zones to
account for these winds. There will also be an increased risk to
high-profile vehicles on the elevated bridges around the Charleston
and Savannah Metro Areas. The second event could unfold during the
afternoon hours as the mid-level cyclone passes by. There are
signals that a sting jet feature could develop along the nose of a
descending wind max within the cold conveyor positioned along the
west and southwest flanks of the mid-level cyclone. Sting jets are
notoriously difficult to forecast, but do have a well documented
history of producing wind damage. It will be interesting to see
how/if this materializes. Additional wind products may be needed if
this feature develops.
In the new england forum on american weather, they complain if they only get 18 inches instead of 24 inches ??