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Pattern 12/15-19 Coastal!!!!!

Also of note the 12k nam is more inland but not nearly as far as the 3k. It's not too far off the globals and may be a decent blend. We will have to see if the gfs euro and ukie make any west adjustments
 
If the 3K NAM and the HRRR verify all of SC and NC get very heavy rain and a lot of wind. The other NAM is wet for most of NC and SC, but keeps the worst of the wind east of I-95. The HRRR puts more of GA in play too, including ATL.
 
The GFS is a small tick west with the back edge of rain but is generally in line with the 18z. This also basically lines up with the NAM. The HRRR and the NAM 3k seem to be outliers for now.
 
For NC it comes down to Hi Res versus globals....the hi res models all take the center right up through central NC anywhere from 976-982 mb which would put the entire eastern half of the state getting gust well into the 40-60 range. The globals are hugging the coast with the center keeping the wind field off shore or on the IBX/OBX only. Same with the precip, hi res models focus highest rain totals in western NC and the globals in eastern. The hi res models and the globals have good consensus among themselves as to the track, they just differ on where that is, they all get the pressure into the low 980's by the time it is in NC...sucks that 24 hrs out there is such a big difference on track between the two camps.

For MBY the hi res track would probably get winds gusting 50ish or better and cut down on rain totals which is exactly what I want lol....so I am team hi res.
 
From Allan. Using 3k
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Its been fun to watch the level of phasing on the trailer currently in Iowa and how that biases the strength and track of this system. You can look at you model to model or r2r trends and see that's been tough for the models to pin down. I'd personally favor an I95 track but that leads to a wise range of sensible impacts due to a 50 mile west shift bringing more severe weather and wind to the Eastern Carolinas and GA.
 
From WRAL

NEW THIS MORNING: High resolution models have shifted the track of the low a tad to the west. This means our severe weather threat is increasing. Severe storms will be possible tomorrow afternoon and night. The tornado risk is in the level 2 risk area.

And it is ridiculous that less than 24 hours the global models and high resolution models are so far off from each other with the track.
 
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