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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

Storm5 said:
Models are kinda pointless at this point as its time to look out the window . With that said that gfs run was sick for the upper south
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You know we aren't going to stop looking at models...I have better chance of telling my teenager to get off the ticky tock.
 
I think there is a bust potential in this area either way on snow/sleet totals. We are riding a thin line from about 18z-4z where we could see more snow or sleet than forecast but we have deep dry layer that could eat all of the initial precip leaving us largely with a freezing rain event as the main area of lift and forcing arrive after the column has been warmed. Let me preface this though with when I say bust I'm not talking getting 6 when expecting around 1 I'm not talking getting 2 or 3 when expecting 1
 
I know the RAP gets going flatter across the board and supports a much more SNOW/Sleet solution compared to well basically NAM and definitely is eye candy for now
 
SD said:
I think there is a bust potential in this area either way on snow/sleet totals. We are riding a thin line from about 18z-4z where we could see more snow or sleet than forecast but we have deep dry layer that could eat all of the initial precip leaving us largely with a freezing rain event as the main area of lift and forcing arrive after the column has been warmed. Let me preface this though with when I say bust I'm not talking getting 6 when expecting around 1 I'm not talking getting 2 or 3 when expecting 1
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Agreed. 1-2" is our most likely zone. One thing for sure, soil temps won't be an issue. About as good as we can get it from every perspective as far as antecedent conditions.
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SD said:
I think there is a bust potential this this area either way on snow/sleet totals. We are riding a thin line from about 18z-4z where we could see more snow or sleet than forecast but we have deep dry layer that could eat all of the initial precip leaving us largely with a freezing rain event as the main area of lift and forcing arrive after the column has been warmed. Let me preface this though with when I say bust I'm not talking getting 6 when expecting around 1 I'm not talking getting 2 or 3 when expecting 1
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The GFS has lower snow/sleet totals for areas like ours, but this would still be a bad winter storm coming towards us:

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KyloG said:
All models today increasing precip into the Carolina's....GFS latest...which is a icy mess for Raleigh. I wonder if we see that trend continue into tomorrow.

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Yet another model run with an increase in totals over ga and the upstate. Gfs.now with a 1.43 max near Monroe. Not bad lol
 
Chris Justus is going extremely bullish. 2-4” extending into the southern part of the upstate with up to 8” in the northern parts of the counties and a 12” lollipop up towards Bryson city

LET HIM COOK 🧑‍🍳
 
rburrel2 said:
Here's the latest GFS... Every bit of this falls as frozen precip from Lake Lanier up I -85 to Charlotte.

That's a lot of frozen liquid, no matter which form it falls as. This could be really high impact in terms of roads and power outages, like really bad.

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Less bad if more falls as sleet and cold rain. 🌧️
 
Those GFS ice totals posted eariler from the latest run are worrisome for people in the RDU area and areas south/east. Those totals are probably inflated but even cutting them in half would cause some tree damage and power outages.
 
LithiaWx said:
Good luck NC/SC/VA looks like the fate of my location is going to be a Snow/Sleet/Freezing Rain deal. I'm really hoping for more sleet than ice. I've heard the magic number for destructive ice is about .75". The totals keep creeping higher towards that .75"
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Atlanta area is honestly overdue for a crippling ice storm. I feel like it used to happen a lot more often. This could be the one.
 
Temps will rise after midnight changing over to cold rain for many on this board outside of North Carolina. 🌧️ That should help prevent a lot of power issues and help Saturday rebound quicker with Sunshine and temps above freezing to start. Yes there will be snow/sleet/zr but cold rain is also part of this storm so enjoy it Friday before it melts. ☔️
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Temps will rise after midnight changing over to cold rain for many on this board outside of North Carolina. 🌧️ That should help prevent a lot of power issues and help Saturday rebound quicker with Sunshine and temps above freezing to start. Yes there will be snow/sleet/zr but cold rain is also part of this storm so enjoy it Friday before it melts. ☔️
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No, no. You are way too NC-centric. The skies have not healed enough over your house. You speak in too many absolutes which makes you who you are and normally wrong.
 
DixieBlizzard said:
No, no. You are way too NC-centric. The skies have not healed enough over your house. You speak in too many absolutes which makes you who you are and normally wrong.
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GFS early Saturday. 32-33+ would be cold rain. Major icing would not be on the fringe areas. Melting actually does start overnight due to track of the low. IMG_4160.jpeg
 
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