Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

[JP152]

I wonder if the entire states of OK, AR, TN, and KY have ever been under winter weather products at the same time before.

I would say yes definitely for Kentucky.

 

[Rain Cold]

It's about time for the bad model runs to start trickling in the way things have gone this week. Bad in evenings, better in mornings

Well, the drying trend on some of these foreign models isn't all that encouraging to me.

 

[1300m]

It's about time for the bad model runs to start trickling in the way things have gone this week. Bad in evenings, better in mornings

Hah. I'm at the stage of if I look at one more model run my eyes may pop out of my head.

Goes and checks 18z Euro....

 

[griteater]

Hah. I'm at the stage of if I look at one more model run my eyes may pop out of my head.

Goes and checks 18z Euro....
View attachment 162018

Yeah, I've got a beard and I'm worn out

 

[weatherfide]

Mping has sleet reports in Jackson, MS and snow/mix up in the north MS cities.

 

[jrips27]

Might be the last time I look at the euro

 

[SD]

FWIW - the NAM was definitely too warm last weekend with the VA storm. It had the snow line a good bit further north than the RGEM and Euro. Now that it appears the NAM was off it's rocker with the solution from 00z, it's most likely safe to assume it is at least somewhat too warm here.

It's ever so slowly ticking that fgen finger SW toward the main precip shield that tells me its probably going to back down some on the WAA push but how much?

 

[Benholio]

I hate to speak in absolutes but nowhere is gonna see 0.75” ice in GA, SC or NC. Follow the experts like the NWS and WPC. They have the most extreme ice chance of 0.25” at 10-20% chance north-east of Atlanta, GA. Cold rain does not mean ice. That’s called freezing rain.

Where do you see those percentages? Because FFC has been putting out “expected ice accumulation” around 0.25” for a large area

 

[BufordWX]

Central AR gonna get blasted tonight.

 

[atlwx]

Where do you see those percentages? Because FFC has been putting out “expected ice accumulation” around 0.25” for a large area

I think this.

EDIT: Which hasn't been updated since they said that.

 

[SnowwxAtl]

For South Fulton, GA (Atlanta Airport) Now, that is funny to me...3 to 5 inches...get out of here! prove me wrong TWC app!

 

[atlwx]

For South Fulton, GA (Atlanta Airport) Now, that is funny to me...3 to 5 inches...get out of here! prove me wrong TWC app!
View attachment 162025

Hello fellow Atlantan!!! Love ya, but... we know TWC (and Apple's pretty but TERRIBLE app) says stupid things, but... the other thread please.

 

[BufordWX]

Looks like precip is possibly starting or close to reaching the ground in parts of Northern MS. First Mping report of sleet right under the heaviest returns.

 

[jrips27]

 

[JLL1973]

@JLL1973 and @NWMSGuy It looks like that precip is right on your doorstep. What's your currents?

Cloudy and 36

 

[Showmeyourtds]

View attachment 162027

Off hour run…we toss

 

[weatherfide]

32.2 now, dewpoint is 17. Wet bulb is 27.5. Pretty dry down here at the surface.

 

[JLL1973]

Looks like it’s a little ahead of schedule back this way

 

[CobraMedic]

Temp dropped pretty quick.

 

[SnowedIn1]

It is ripping just west of Memphis:

 

[Snowflowxxl]

The whole thing is going to be ahead of schedule, happens Everytime. Atlanta metro better be ready by 4am

 

[Nomanslandva]

The dry wedge on some of the models up my way gives me pause. Seems like the last time I saw something like this, it ended up worse than it was modeled. Weird system. O hope 00z gets things in sync.

 

[Brent]

The whole thing is going to be ahead of schedule, happens Everytime. Atlanta metro better be ready by 4am

That's been the whole trend here... It came in way earlier than it was a few days ago

 

[DopplerWx]

Last frame of latest HRRR

 

[LithiaWx]

HRRR much snowier across N GA.

 

[ryanardo]

I hate living in central SC, severe weather sucks, always a bust, and winter weather you don't know until the event

 

[Nerman]

Last frame of latest HRRR
View attachment 162034

That's a nice improvement for snow in ATL

 

[EmersonGA]

HRRR much snowier across N GA.

Looks like it will be dumping snow right before any transition.

 

[jrips27]

HRRR much snowier across N GA.

Pound town

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Trends have been better for the south metro. Hoping most of them can get a quick inch on the front end. Atlanta might be snow deprived, but the south metro is REALLY snow deprived. As in 2014 since anything decent.

 

[crecre9]

View attachment 162032Temp dropped pretty quick.

Wow it's still above freezing in HSV, though just 34

 

[LukeBarrette]

Not sure if any of this is reaching the ground:
View attachment 162015

Before I scroll any further. Be careful using precipitation depiction as it can be very wrong. Make sure mping reports are turned on and use reflectivity and correlation coefficient to see sleet/ice line.

 

[griteater]

Final Reminder: Griteater Snowfall Contest Thread - deadline is tonight at 10pm Eastern. $100 to the winner

Link to the thread: https://southernwx.com/community/threads/the-griteater-snowfall-contest.1364/

 

[BufordWX]

Certainly no lack in precipitation with this system right now.

 

[ChattaVOL]

Wow it's still above freezing in HSV, though just 34

Chattanooga had dropped quickly


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[RBR71]

Thought I read some comments about qpf drying up but latest NWS NBM has increased qpf and now has a nice swath of .5 across NC.

 

[NoSnowJoe]

I saw a met in Macon saying that he was expecting extensive evaporated cooling tomorrow in Georgia. Is that a possibility with this system?

 

[Shadypines33]

Wow it's still above freezing in HSV, though just 34

It's dropping pretty fast here in Madison. It was 36 at 6pm and my weather station says it's 33.4 now. Dewpoint has gone from 13.0 to 19.0 in that span, too.

 

[Cbmatt2408]

HRRR has us at 36 at 8 PM and it’s currently 30 observed at my house in LaGrange, GA. It has been consistently colder than the models, but that is a big swing.

 

[GoDuke]

RAP snow and zr