EVER/AWAYS CONSERVATIVE NWS KILM has raised the flag
WWA now in effect..
The system will bring rain, freezing rain, and
possibly some sleet late Friday into early Saturday, with a
Winter Weather Advisory in effect.
**
Overall I`m impressed by the model consistency with regards to the
GFS and ECMWF. The GFS has consistently shown less chance of
freezing rain accumulations inland while the ECMWF is a little more
bullish on the extent of the frozen precipitation but somewhat
lighter in qpf amounts. Overall this could be considered noise and
in not really unexpected as there are slight wobbles with each
particular cycle. Now we have the high resolution guidance in play
as well. The NamNest shows a more aggressive solution while the HRRR
at leas the 12 UTC run has very little in the way of frozen
precipitation. I will be leaning toward the NAM just a little bit
for this package.
As the relatively weak area of low pressure moves across the
southeast later Friday and offshore early Saturday an early swath of
light qpf will move south to north across the CWA. Even though
temperatures will likely be somewhat above freezing the thermal
profiles could thread the needle to allow a few snow flakes along
with sleet to occur. By early evening more qpf develops and with
dewpoints still below freezing allowing freezing rain to develop
with perhaps more sleet via the GFS. In time the rain gets heavy
enough to allow wet bulb temperatures to reach freezing or just
below for a few hours. Finally the precipitation slowly transitions
to all liquid but the trend will be a grind. Overall the freezing
rain shield has been expanded to the south and east and a winter
weather advisory will be issued to address. The freezing rain
amounts have been slightly increased but just enough sleet may enter
the qpf total to keep amounts in advisory criteria. This for far
northwest areas as points south and east have lighter amounts. It
should be noted the HREF/FRAM ensemble mean numbers are in good
agreement with these amounts and trends. Finally highs Friday will
be in the middle to upper 30s with Saturday morning lows upper 20s
well inland and lower 30s along the coast.**
MOREHEAD CITY SAYS..
Winter Weather Advisory issued January 9 at 2:44PM EST until January 11 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Newport/Morehead City NC
* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations less than one tenth of an inch.* WHERE...Coastal Onslow, East Carteret, Inland Onslow, and West Carteret Counties, and Northern Outer Banks.* WHEN...From 4 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday.* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions...
&&
Winter Weather Advisory issued January 9 at 2:44PM EST until January 11 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Newport/Morehead City NC
* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to a half of an inch and ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch.* WHERE...A portion of eastern North Carolina.* WHEN...From 4 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday.* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Greatest ice accumulation are expected inland, this includes Martin, Pitt, Greene, and Lenoir counties.
WWA now in effect..
The system will bring rain, freezing rain, and
possibly some sleet late Friday into early Saturday, with a
Winter Weather Advisory in effect.
**
Overall I`m impressed by the model consistency with regards to the
GFS and ECMWF. The GFS has consistently shown less chance of
freezing rain accumulations inland while the ECMWF is a little more
bullish on the extent of the frozen precipitation but somewhat
lighter in qpf amounts. Overall this could be considered noise and
in not really unexpected as there are slight wobbles with each
particular cycle. Now we have the high resolution guidance in play
as well. The NamNest shows a more aggressive solution while the HRRR
at leas the 12 UTC run has very little in the way of frozen
precipitation. I will be leaning toward the NAM just a little bit
for this package.
As the relatively weak area of low pressure moves across the
southeast later Friday and offshore early Saturday an early swath of
light qpf will move south to north across the CWA. Even though
temperatures will likely be somewhat above freezing the thermal
profiles could thread the needle to allow a few snow flakes along
with sleet to occur. By early evening more qpf develops and with
dewpoints still below freezing allowing freezing rain to develop
with perhaps more sleet via the GFS. In time the rain gets heavy
enough to allow wet bulb temperatures to reach freezing or just
below for a few hours. Finally the precipitation slowly transitions
to all liquid but the trend will be a grind. Overall the freezing
rain shield has been expanded to the south and east and a winter
weather advisory will be issued to address. The freezing rain
amounts have been slightly increased but just enough sleet may enter
the qpf total to keep amounts in advisory criteria. This for far
northwest areas as points south and east have lighter amounts. It
should be noted the HREF/FRAM ensemble mean numbers are in good
agreement with these amounts and trends. Finally highs Friday will
be in the middle to upper 30s with Saturday morning lows upper 20s
well inland and lower 30s along the coast.**
MOREHEAD CITY SAYS..
Winter Weather Advisory issued January 9 at 2:44PM EST until January 11 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Newport/Morehead City NC
* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations less than one tenth of an inch.* WHERE...Coastal Onslow, East Carteret, Inland Onslow, and West Carteret Counties, and Northern Outer Banks.* WHEN...From 4 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday.* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions...
&&
Winter Weather Advisory issued January 9 at 2:44PM EST until January 11 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Newport/Morehead City NC
* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to a half of an inch and ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch.* WHERE...A portion of eastern North Carolina.* WHEN...From 4 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday.* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Greatest ice accumulation are expected inland, this includes Martin, Pitt, Greene, and Lenoir counties.
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