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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

You are in the mid south I hear. Do you really think the amount of snow you will get is predicated on what a few people in an office in MEM says you are going to get? I mean you are in the mid south. Just follow the models like the rest if us weenies that don't live in the mid south. ;)

Sorry, just giving you a hard time. I think you will do okay.
;)
 
Afternoon disco from BMX... forecasting a lot of sleet for our area.

Discussion...

We are dealing with a difficult forecast for late tonight and
Friday due to a late shift in the model guidance, led by the NAM
and followed by the global models. The shortwave trough
approaching the Mississippi Valley has trended more amplified
resulting in a stronger 850 mb low-level jet farther inland over
MS/AL and stronger warm advection in the 850-700 mb layer.

As precipitation overspreads the western and central counties
around 3 AM, forecast soundings are increasingly exhibiting a
warm nose around 750 mb, which is expected to be warm enough to
cause partial melting of snowflakes. Wet bulb temperatures below
this layer should be 2-4 C below freezing, which should allow for
the formation of ice pellets. Across our far northern counties,
thermal profiles are more supportive of a snow/ice pellet mix
within the first 2-4 hours of the onset.

By 6 AM, precipitation should be ongoing across most of the
forecast area with a potential for accumulating moderate to heavy
ice pellets as long as the melting layer aloft remains shallow
and colder than +3 C. If this layer is warmer, we`ll be looking
at an earlier transition to freezing rain in the Winter Weather
Advisory area.

Along the US-278 corridor, 0.5 to 1 inch snow appears possible
before precipitation changes to ice pellets. As warm advection
leads to additional warming at 800-750 mb, and where surface
temperatures remain below freezing, a transition to freezing is
expected in the 7-10 AM time frame from south to north. The best
chance for ice accumulations greater than 0.10 inch will be in the
Winter Storm Warning area, and in particular to the east of I-65
and north of I-20 in the higher elevations.

By noon, a sharp warm nose aloft should eliminate snow and sleet
as possible precipitation types. Where cold air lingers in the
higher elevations of the northeastern counties, additional
freezing rain accumulation may occur.

87/Grantham
 
current Obs here on da Coast, (Topsail, nc)..
DOT is brining the roads..
Temp forecast has busted..
(We were forecasted, to get too 45F today)..
currently 37F under clear Skies.. never even reached 40F
DP of 10F
 
d6c4d2adf11150b5c2d66828cb62843b.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Metwannabe said:
Looks like Euro AI increased QPF across NC a little but I don't have p-type maps

View attachment 161982
Click to expand...
Euro AI has ticked NW with low track and temps aloft each of its last 4 runs with sfc temps holding for the most part. It looks like a typical Carolina storm with mix from Charlotte to Raleigh

gDjZdDm.gif
 
WxBlue said:
It's probably easier to just say it'll be a combination of snow, sleet, and freezing rain with accumulations from all of them being my forecast rather than a straight snowfall forecast.
Click to expand...
Basically what Huntsville did

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
225 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2025

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-101200-
/O.CON.KHUN.WS.W.0001.250110T0600Z-250111T1200Z/
Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-
Marshall-Jackson-DeKalb-Cullman-Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN-
Including the cities of Lynchburg, Red Bay, Moulton,
Russellville, Fayetteville, Decherd, Sewanee, Cowan,
Guntersville, Decatur, Albertville, Huntsville, Athens, Estill
Springs, Cullman, Rainsville, Boaz, Winchester, Florence,
Scottsboro, Town Creek, Sheffield, Fort Payne, Muscle Shoals,
Arab, and Tuscumbia
225 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6
AM CST SATURDAY NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected Northern Alabama and
Southern Middle Tennessee. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 1
to 5 inches and ice accumulations up three tenths of an inch.

* WHERE...All of north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
RGEM really gets that snow going again on the NW side after the low gets out from under us

Roads are pretreated here View attachment 161986
Click to expand...
A little Miller A/B hybrid reform offshore of Myrtle Beach from JAX. Really holds the in-situ wedge really well except right along the immediate beaches and just a few miles inland. Not an overall bad take from the RGEM
 
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