Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

[NCSNOW]

I just dug into cloud forecast overnight here. Cant hardly draw it up any better. We stay clear till 4 -430 before they start rolling in. Will be completely covered, solid cannopy by 830ish.

Tonights low under ideal radiational cooling is 17.
20z (3pm) is rough estimate start time, consensus models.
Usually you get going a few hours earlier, but who knows. So between noon-4pm snow should start breaking out. Expierence would advise closer to noon than 4pm.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That’s some impressive rates being modeled in the FGEN band

 

[Goose88]

 

[Storm5]

That HRRR run is all I need for where I'll be in Marshall County.

The clear trend so far today has been a less pronounced warm nose

 

[KyloG]

Wow...hrrr ticking a smidge south past few runs

 

[GATA]

Heavy band through Fort Worth and just West of Dallas . Love to be under that and see what ground truth was View attachment 161885

I just spoke to a contractor of mine there and he said they currently have 4" of the snow, 33 degrees, and heavy snow falling. He said it started with a mix and has turned to all snow.

 

[Pup12]

Man the precip looks heavy on these recent maps

 

[bouncycorn]

Seems that HRRR keeps trying to cut north, but as it gets closer, it keeps correcting south. Likely we continue to see a cooling trend on HRRR in extended range.

 

[Oconeexman]

Oconee special on the Hrrrrrr!
Interesting the change over to sleet is brief then changes back to heavy snow. Wild looking scenario for sure

 

[packfan98]

My guess is that the nam will be relatively similar to 12z and the fall closer in line with other models at 0z. I’m mainly interested in precip. amount trends.

REMINDER! We are all excited, but please refrain from cluttering up this thread with giddy posts that don’t add to the discussion. Thanks!

 

[Goose88]

Im so confused right now the local mets keep saying it's trending warmer here in Bham but I have seen knowledgeable posters here be right as well

 

[DopplerWx]

Oconee special on the Hrrrrrr!
Interesting the change over to sleet is brief then changes back to heavy snow. Wild looking scenario for sure

Gfs and euro and Canadian all have shown that last few runs, snow to sleet then almost a def band back to snow

 

[KyloG]

HRRR makes a lot of sense...mainly snow NW of 85 and mix of sleet back to Raleigh/95. I'd take this all day.

 

[LithiaWx]

.5 - 1.5" per hour rates out of that band in TX.

 

[Gibby]

RAH just issued a WSW!

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to three inches and ice accumulations up to two tenths of an inch. Highest snow accumulations are expected along the Virginia border.

* WHERE...Most of central North Carolina.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Persons should delay all travel if possible. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution and be prepared for sudden changes in visibility. Make sure your car is winterized and in good working order.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Wow...hrrr ticking a smidge south past few runs

View attachment 161944

Wow so maybe Columbia SC could see snow drought come to an end. What do you guys think for the midlands of SC?

 

[KyloG]

That would be quite the site if we can get the HRRR to verify tomorrow

 

[Shawn]

Wow so maybe Columbia SC could see snow drought come to an end. What do you guys think for the midlands of SC?

I-20 North. Better as you get into the Northern Midlands.

As usual, CAE proper gets crap.

I can't wait to move away from this state in the next year or so, lol.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lmao

 

[Makeitsnow]

Hrrr precip totals...clear trend toward a lot of precip for ga and the upstate. Alabama is cooking lol

 

[ForsythSnow]

Not sure I want the FFC forecast for ZR to verify. 0.35 across the CAD areas after snow is going to be a huge power issue.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Lmao View attachment 161952

Look at the cooling over the midlands of SC

 

[Tsappfrog20]

NWS Raleigh Pulled the Trigger!!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[NWMSGuy]

Will be interesting to be in some of those heavy bands come early morning tomorrow. Wouldn't mind hearing a clap of thunder too!

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Wet

 

[dsaur]

If that Low goes true Miller A as most recent runs have showed some variant toward that and other models follow suit FFC will be quickly updating there Warnings haha

Yea, Kffc seems to be leaning away from Mr. super conservative Cook. We'll know more when the precip gets into Ala. I still think I get a pretty good sleet out of this, with a few inches of snow and a nice zr crust. Hopefully not enough to crash the trees. Been there too many times and don't like it. Sleet, sleet, sleet...

 

[lexxnchloe]

Winter storm warning for a good portion of north central NC

 

[Chazwin]

HRRR makes a lot of sense...mainly snow NW of 85 and mix of sleet back to Raleigh/95. I'd take this all day.

View attachment 161949

Look at those sleet totals back in southern Arkansas. 3.5-4”. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen that much sleet modeled.

 

[ForsythSnow]

NAM running, still looks like it's on another planet in terms of thermal handling. It immediately jumps the verification to warmer ptypes.

 

[Snowfan]

Latest snow/ice accumulations from FFC:

 

[Snowfan]

NAM running, still looks like it's on another planet in terms of thermal handling. It immediately jumps the verification to warmer ptypes.

Either it's on to something or we're about to see more snow/sleet accumulations in AL/GA/SC/NC.

 

[rburrel2]

Man if we can get the Hrrr to just tick colder one more time at 700mb then the upstate is easily all snow for the whole event. We're able to fight off any warm nose around 850mb from the residual cold pool. Just need that crest of that 750-800mb nose to tink one tiny click south.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

I-20 North. Better as you get into the Northern Midlands.

As usual, CAE proper gets crap.

I can't wait to move away from this state in the next year or so, lol.

I don’t think so, models have been trending colder for CAE Shawn. It look more possible that the central midlands could see a thump with that band.

 

[Snow_chaser]

Latest snow/ice accumulations from FFC:

That’s what they say will accumulate. How much will actually fall because their numbers don’t match some of these juiced up precipitation maps lol

 

[Shawn]

Look at the cooling over the midlands of SC

The local office says the HRRR is too warm and it's basically ignored.

I am not surprised to see it 2F cooler than it's previous run.

 

[Shawn]

I don’t think so, models have been trending colder for CAE Shawn. It look more possible that the central midlands could see a thump with that band.

A thump of half an inch of snow and sleet and then over to ZR up to 1/4 inch.

Meh.

Let me know how 500mb and the track of the low supports a surprise 1-2 inch+ event in CAE and get back to me.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Either it's on to something or we're about to see more snow/sleet accumulations in AL/GA/SC/NC.

It's snowing where the NAM has rain right now. I have 0 understanding on this model and just want to see how absurd it gets. Still a mess on it at hour 12. Hour 3 literally has rain in S AR.

 

[rburrel2]

Also, I kept thinking precip totals would go up along the escarpment of SC b/c the flow starts ripping out of the SE at 925mb Friday evening. There has to be some orographical enhancement with that. You can see it helps to adiabatically cool that layer as well already on the models

 

[jrips27]

Let’s rage

 

[ForsythSnow]

Latest snow/ice accumulations from FFC:

Looks like 2013 + snow on top. Not sure the setup for that much ice exists.