My Most Comprehensive Post Yet—A Must-Read for Everyone
This is the deepest dive I’ve taken into the upcoming storm system, analyzing all the critical details and breaking down the possibilities like never before. With models starting to show clear trends, there’s a lot to unpack regarding blocking strength, storm track shifts, and the role of cold air. Whether you’re rooting for snow, watching the dynamics unfold, or simply want the clearest picture of what’s ahead, this post covers it all. I encourage everyone to take the time to read through—it’s worth it!
That said, I’m curious to hear what others think—does Option 1 seem like the most plausible outcome to you, or are you leaning toward one of the other scenarios? Let’s discuss it!
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Option 1: A Suppressed and Colder Solution—The Best Case Scenario
We’re starting to see models trending toward what the GEFS and Euro AI have been hinting at—a suppressed storm track driven by enhanced blocking over southeastern Canada and amplified ridging in the western U.S. This setup is textbook for a high-impact winter weather event across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, and it's arguably the most favorable scenario for significant snowfall.
Key Features Supporting Option 1
- Strong Blocking Over Southeastern Canada
- Both the UKMET and GEFS emphasize a powerful blocking high that anchors over southeastern Canada. This feature is crucial because it locks cold air in place across the eastern U.S. and prevents the low-pressure system from cutting too far north.
- This blocking feature creates a barrier, ensuring the storm track remains suppressed and snow potential increases across areas like northern Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, the Carolinas, and Virginia.
- Amplified Ridge in the Western U.S.
- The western ridge builds significantly, allowing the trough to dig deeply into the central U.S. This amplification keeps the Arctic air entrenched across the South and enhances cold air damming (CAD) along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians.
- The ridge-trough configuration is consistent with the synoptic features we've seen in recent runs, especially in the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles.
- Suppressed Warm Air Intrusion
- The storm track, shown clearly in both the UKMET and GEFS, keeps warm Gulf air confined to areas farther south (southern Alabama and Georgia). This suppression minimizes the northward advancement of the rain/mix line, preserving a broader area of snowfall.
- Jet Stream Dynamics
- A well-positioned subtropical jet delivers Gulf moisture into the storm system, while the polar jet provides upper-level support for cyclogenesis and sustained lift across the Southeast. This dual-jet configuration enhances precipitation rates within the cold sector of the storm.
Snowfall Potential
- Widespread Snow Across the South
- Snowfall extends farther south into areas like northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, and northern Georgia. This aligns with the trends in recent GEFS runs and supports the snowfall maps you’ve shared earlier.
- Cold air damming (CAD) will likely enhance snow totals across western North Carolina and southwestern Virginia, where the CAD effect helps sustain sub-freezing temperatures at the surface.
- Significant Accumulations in the Carolinas and Virginia
- Western and central North Carolina, particularly areas near Charlotte, will likely see higher snowfall totals due to the suppressed warm air and strong lift along the storm track.
- The combination of CAD and enhanced mid-level dynamics (as seen in the 700mb vorticity maps) supports heavier snow rates along this corridor.
- Minimal Rain/Mix Intrusion
- Thanks to the suppressed warm air, the rain/mix line remains confined to the southern edges of the storm track. This ensures that areas in the snow zone stay predominantly snow.
Why Option 1 is the Best Case
- Maximizes Snow Coverage
- This setup ensures widespread snow across areas that are rarely impacted this significantly, including parts of the Deep South.
- Strong Model Agreement
- The UKMET and GEFS show a clear alignment on the storm track, while trends in the ECMWF ensemble have also begun shifting toward a colder, suppressed solution. This increases confidence in the viability of this scenario.
- Classic Southeast Winter Storm Setup
- The interplay of blocking, CAD, and Gulf moisture is a classic recipe for a significant Southeast snowstorm. Option 1 nails all these elements, making it the most meteorologically sound solution.
Potential Risks
- Moisture Limitation
- A suppressed track runs the risk of underutilizing Gulf moisture, especially in areas farther west like Mississippi and Alabama. This could reduce snowfall totals slightly in those regions.
- Phasing Issues
- Timing remains critical. If the northern and southern streams fail to phase properly, the storm may struggle to deepen, limiting its overall intensity.
Final Thoughts
Option 1 is shaping up to be the ideal outcome for those hoping for a high-impact snowstorm in the Southeast. The strong blocking, suppressed storm track, and deep trough all point toward a widespread winter weather event. The models are starting to converge on this solution, further supporting what many of us have been noting in recent GEFS and Euro AI runs. While nothing is set in stone, the consistency of these features makes Option 1 the most plausible and impactful scenario.
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Option 2: A More Progressive Storm Track with Weak Blocking
Option 2 represents a middle-ground scenario where the storm track is slightly less suppressed, allowing warmer air to intrude farther north. While it still supports some snow across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, the weaker blocking and less amplified ridge-trough pattern reduce the potential for widespread significant snow. This is a less ideal scenario compared to Option 1 but remains a plausible outcome given the model trends.
Key Features of Option 2
- Weaker Blocking Over Canada
- Unlike Option 1, the blocking over southeastern Canada is weaker and more transient. The CMCE and Euro AI both suggest that the blocking high is not strong enough to fully lock cold air in place.
- This weaker blocking allows for a more progressive storm track, with the surface low tracking farther north and reducing the cold air's grip over the southern regions.
- Less Amplified Ridge-Trough Pattern
- The ridge over the western U.S. is less pronounced, leading to a shallower trough in the eastern U.S. This limits the southward push of Arctic air and reduces the overall amplification of the storm system.
- The result is a storm track that lifts farther north, bringing more warm air into the system and narrowing the snow zone across the Southeast.
- Increased Warm Air Intrusion
- With the storm track farther north, warm Gulf air is able to push into areas that would otherwise remain in the snow zone. This intrusion shifts the rain/snow line farther north, impacting parts of the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas.
Snowfall Potential
- Snow Zone
- Snowfall is still possible in northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, and northern Georgia, but accumulations would likely be lighter than in Option 1. The broader impacts shift northeast into the central Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic.
- Western and central North Carolina may still see snow, but the northern shift in the storm track reduces the duration of snowfall and increases the risk of a mix or changeover to rain.
- Rain and Mix Zone
- The weaker CAD (cold air damming) in this setup allows warm air to penetrate farther north, introducing a wider zone of mixed precipitation across the Carolinas and southern Virginia.
- The rain zone expands farther north into the southern tier of the storm track, cutting into potential snow totals.
Synoptic Drivers Supporting Option 2
- Weaker Blocking
- The less persistent blocking high over southeastern Canada leads to a faster progression of the storm system, limiting the interaction between cold air and Gulf moisture.
- The storm track reflects this lack of robust blocking, favoring a more zonal jet stream pattern rather than the amplified setup seen in Option 1.
- Shallower Trough
- The trough in the eastern U.S. is less deep, as seen in the CMCE and Euro AI height fields. This reduces the capacity for Arctic air to dig into the Southeast, weakening the temperature gradient critical for heavy snow.
- Storm Track Shift
- The storm track shifts northward due to the weaker blocking and less amplified trough, increasing warm air advection from the Gulf and limiting the extent of the snow zone.
Why Option 2 Falls Short
- Reduced Snow Coverage
- The northward shift in the storm track leads to reduced snow totals in the Deep South and parts of the Southeast that would see more snow in Option 1.
- Increased Rain/Mix
- Warm air intrusion results in more rain and mixed precipitation in areas that would otherwise see all snow in Option 1.
- Weaker Cold Air Lock
- The lack of strong blocking allows cold air to retreat faster, reducing the overall potential for significant snow accumulation across the southern regions.
Concerns
- Uncertain Blocking Strength
- The blocking high is a key wildcard. If it ends up stronger than shown in this scenario, the storm track could shift south, making this solution less likely.
- Moisture Timing
- The faster progression of the storm system could limit the interaction between cold air and moisture, reducing overall snowfall potential.
Final Thoughts
Option 2 represents a less favorable outcome for significant snowfall in the Southeast compared to Option 1. The weaker blocking, shallower trough, and northward storm track diminish the potential for widespread snow across the Deep South. While some snow is still possible, particularly in the Appalachians and parts of the Mid-Atlantic, the overall impact would be less significant. This scenario is plausible but lacks the robust dynamics needed for a major winter storm across the region.
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Option 3: A Warmer and More Progressive Solution—The Worst-Case Scenario
Option 3 represents the least favorable outcome for significant snowfall across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. This scenario is characterized by insufficient blocking, a faster and more progressive storm track, and a significant intrusion of warm air from the Gulf. Both the Euro and ICON models suggest that suppressed cold air in the Midwest and weaker ridging in the West lead to a storm track that lifts too far north, minimizing snowfall potential for the southern regions.
Key Features of Option 3
- Weakened Blocking Over Canada
- Unlike Options 1 and 2, the blocking high over southeastern Canada is notably weaker in this setup, offering minimal resistance to the storm system's northward progression.
- This weak blocking allows for less cold air to funnel southward, limiting the depth of the cold sector and reducing the extent of snowfall.
- A Flattened Ridge-Trough Pattern
- The ridge in the western U.S. is not well-developed, and the trough over the eastern U.S. is much shallower. This flatter configuration favors a quicker-moving storm that lacks the amplification needed for deeper cold air intrusion.
- Warm Air Dominance
- Warm Gulf air pushes much farther north, overwhelming the potential snow zones across the Southeast. The storm track favors rain or mixed precipitation in areas that would otherwise see snow in Options 1 or 2.
- Suppressed Cold Air
- Cold air is suppressed farther north, and with no strong CAD (cold air damming) in place, sub-freezing temperatures fail to extend into much of the Deep South.
Snowfall Potential
- Minimal Snowfall in the Southeast
- Northern Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia see little to no snow in this scenario due to the dominant warm air.
- Western and central North Carolina might still see some snow, but totals would be significantly lower than in Options 1 and 2.
- Northern Shift of the Snow Zone
- The primary snow zone shifts to the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states. Areas like northern Virginia, Maryland, and southern Pennsylvania would see more snowfall compared to the Southeast.
- Limited Snow Duration
- Even where snow occurs, the faster storm progression reduces the window for significant accumulations.
Synoptic Drivers Supporting Option 3
- Weak Blocking
- The lack of a strong blocking high over Canada allows the cold air to retreat quickly, leading to a storm track that is farther north and less favorable for Southeast snow.
- Flat and Fast Jet Stream
- The jet stream remains relatively flat and progressive, as seen in the Euro and ICON runs. This reduces the ability of the storm system to deepen or amplify, resulting in a weaker and less impactful storm.
- Dominance of Warm Air
- The warm air advection from the Gulf dominates due to the absence of significant CAD, allowing the rain/snow line to push farther north.
Why Option 3 is the Worst Case
- Minimal Snow Coverage
- Areas in the Deep South that are typically on the fringe of significant snow events would be completely left out in this scenario. Snowfall would be confined to more northern regions.
- Warm Air Wins
- The northward storm track and lack of CAD ensure that most of the precipitation across the Southeast falls as rain, greatly diminishing the potential for a winter storm.
- Fails to Maximize Dynamics
- The weaker ridge-trough pattern and progressive system fail to capitalize on Gulf moisture, leaving snow totals lower even in regions that remain cold.
Concerns
- Over-Progression of the Storm
- If the storm system moves too quickly and fails to phase properly, the dynamics required for significant snow will be absent.
- Warm Bias
- This scenario could reflect a warm bias in the models if they are underestimating the strength of the blocking or CAD potential.
Final Thoughts
Option 3 is the least favorable scenario for those hoping for a significant snowstorm in the Southeast. The weaker blocking, suppressed cold air, and dominant warm air advection all lead to minimal snowfall for the southern U.S. While some snow might occur in the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley, this setup is a far cry from the impactful winter storm suggested in Option 1. If this scenario plays out, it would likely be a disappointment for snow enthusiasts in the Southeast.
Final Thoughts (ON EVERYTHING)
After analyzing all three options, it’s clear that the models are still grappling with the delicate balance of blocking strength, storm track positioning, and the interaction between cold air and Gulf moisture. Here’s how the scenarios stack up:
- Option 1 is clearly the most favorable setup for widespread and impactful snowfall across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. The robust blocking, deep trough, and suppressed storm track create the classic ingredients for a significant winter storm. Recent model trends, particularly from the GEFS and Euro AI, are leaning closer to this solution, which is encouraging. If this trend holds, we could be looking at a memorable event for areas that don’t often see heavy snow.
- Option 2 represents a middle ground but comes with a notable compromise. While it still supports some snow in the Southeast, the weaker blocking and higher storm track allow warm air to intrude farther north, narrowing the snow zone and cutting into accumulations. It’s not the worst-case scenario, but it’s certainly less favorable for southern snow lovers.
- Option 3 is the least desirable and, in my opinion, the least likely outcome. The lack of strong blocking and shallow trough lead to a warm, progressive storm that largely skips the Southeast in terms of snowfall. This scenario seems to reflect some model biases, particularly an underestimation of CAD and blocking strength.
What Do I Think?
Based on the latest trends, I believe
Option 1 is the most plausible scenario. The GEFS and Euro AI have been consistent in showing stronger blocking and a suppressed storm track, which is crucial for keeping the cold air entrenched and maximizing snowfall potential. The recent UKMET also leans toward this colder, more amplified solution, which increases confidence in this outcome.
However, there’s still some uncertainty, particularly with how the blocking evolves. If the blocking weakens or shifts east too quickly, we could slide toward an
Option 2 scenario, which would reduce snow totals and push the rain/snow line farther north. Option 3, while technically possible, feels like an outlier given the current ensemble trends.
Key Factors to Watch
- Blocking Evolution
- The strength and persistence of the southeastern Canadian blocking high will ultimately determine how far south the storm track can go. If the blocking trends stronger, Option 1 becomes even more likely.
- Cold Air Damming (CAD)
- CAD along the Appalachians is critical for maintaining sub-freezing temperatures in the Southeast. If CAD is stronger than models are currently showing, it could enhance snowfall in areas like North Carolina and northern Georgia.
- Jet Stream Dynamics
- The phasing between the northern and southern jet streams will dictate the storm’s intensity. A well-phased system favors a deeper trough and a more amplified storm, aligning with Option 1.
Conclusion
While nothing is set in stone, the models appear to be trending in the right direction for a significant winter storm in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. I’m leaning heavily toward
Option 1 as the likely outcome, with
Option 2 as a backup if the blocking or CAD underperforms. Option 3, though still a possibility, seems less likely given the overall pattern evolution and ensemble agreement.
For snow enthusiasts, it’s time to get cautiously optimistic, but as always, the next 24-48 hours of model runs will be critical in solidifying this storm’s track and impacts.
, but it’s looking like Option 1 might be the right call after all. I’ll post an updated Southeast snowfall total later tonight!
