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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

ForsythSnow said:
It's snowing where the NAM has rain right now. I have 0 understanding on this model and just want to see how absurd it gets. Still a mess on it at hour 12. Hour 3 literally has rain in S AR.
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The mets on here can say if I’m wrong, but you would think that if a model is initiating wrong on current conditions based on actual observations, then it would be a major red flag to the solutions it is putting out
 
298476811c48082f6a8a810467ec9bb6.png

This is Wral. At least they are finally on board now!!


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rburrel2 said:
Man if we can get the Hrrr to just tick colder one more time at 700mb then the upstate is easily all snow for the whole event. We're able to fight off any warm nose around 850mb from the residual cold pool. Just need that crest of that 750-800mb nose to tink one tiny click south.
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But yet NWS has 1-3" in the WSW. What he$$ They thinking
 
BMX has updated their WS Warning:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
206 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2025

ALZ011>015-017>021-024-026-100600-
/O.CON.KBMX.WS.W.0001.250110T0600Z-250111T1200Z/
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-
Cherokee-Cleburne-Jefferson-St. Clair-
Including the cities of Double Springs, Hoover, Centre, Hamilton,
Gadsden, Pell City, Heflin, Jasper, Fayette, Moody, Sulligent,
Birmingham, Anniston, Vernon, and Oneonta
206 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6
AM CST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations up to two
tenths of an inch.

* WHERE...Blount, Calhoun, Cherokee, Cleburne, Etowah, Fayette,
Jefferson, Lamar, Marion, St. Clair, Walker, and Winston Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road
conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday
morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

Persons should consider delaying all travel. Motorists should use
extreme caution if travel is absolutely necessary.
 
Almost now cast time for half of the board. I hope the NAM is on its rocker. But normally it has a cold bias so it has me concerned. The best the Foothills can hope for at this point is a blend of model runs and the front end overpreforms. Ground temps won't be an issue whatever falls will stick. Enjoy my friends it's been a long time since we've seen a board wide hit regardless of p-type.
 
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RoddyPiper said:
Sleet reports coming out of Northern LA
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So, Roddy, not sure your "methodology" or "wishcasting" ability but you have stuck by your guns and the models seem to be trending your way. What part of N Bama do you live? That will give some perspective.
 
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