Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

[MichaelJ]

I really hate to say this but the next hour will tell us what is up. If the EURO and CMC follow the NAM it is over for 90% of the board, if it follows the RGEM and Icon, most will have a storm of some type. Not sure I want to be counting on the ICON, just saying

 

[DustinWx]

Ice map please?

 

[JLL1973]

I told everyone around here this was a i40 storm in my area. It’s well on its way now.Nam way north and now icon ticked north. I expect others to follow soon

 

[1300m]

I really hate to say this but the next hour will tell us what is up. If the EURO and CMC follow the NAM it is over for 90% of the board, if it follows the RGEM and Icon, most will have a storm of some type. Not sure I want to be counting on the ICON, just saying

The GFS will especially be interesting. It hung on the longest to the more amped up solution including an inland track and it shares boundary conditions with the NAM. So if something is truly up, it should be heading back that direction one would think.

 

[NBAcentel]

Man the Rgem has a lot of issues in the snow growth zone. This is under those dark blues. This is sleet/graupel verbatim

 

[NCSNOW]

The track is on north side now of my benchmark Pennsacola to savannah line off 0z rgem an icon.. minor wobble, but thars all it takes to push the mix line north. Instead of 10 miles south of this line in the sand, its now 30 miles north.

 

[Pops]

I told everyone around here this was a i40 storm in my area. It’s well on its way now.Nam way north and now icon ticked north. I expect others to follow soon

I agree

 

[tractor girl]

Is the FV3 high res reliable?

 

[JP152]

Looks like Arkansas ftw with this storm.

 

[Pops]

I agree

Having said that.not gonna freak out YET wait and see tonight's runs and tomorrow

 

[bouncycorn]

Is the FV3 high res reliable?

View attachment 161605

I wouldn't put a lot of faith in the HRW-FV3... but HRW-ARW typically does quite well with shallow cold air. Interesting to see it so cold.

 

[MichaelJ]

Welp, the 00Z NBM shows only TN gets in the game for the most part and it is even puny there

 

[CLOTT01]

Having said that.not gonna freak out YET wait and see tonight's runs and tomorrow

I just gotta say north al is still in a good spot. From Bham north. Gosh I have a hard time buying that kind of a warm nose with this setup. I think from 278 north is still primo.


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[NBAcentel]

Is the FV3 high res reliable?

View attachment 161605

It’s decent in detecting dynamical cooling in wintry setups, but it’s much more preferred in severe setups over winter

 

[njbarrineau]

The NAM has started model trends before at 00z when new data gets ingested. It certainly may be happening here. It may not be as dramatic in the end as what it is depicting now, or this could be the start of something that doesn't stop. Who knows.

Do you know why the leap northwest was such a large one? I know to expect a northwest trend, but the NAM took our system on a whole northwest journey!


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[whizrtr]

Wes Wyatt bumping totals down

 

[Webberweather53]

Finally had enough time to make a very general first guess map for this event. I can see this changing quite a bit as we get closer.

 

[MichaelJ]

The 00Z 3km NAM, misses wide left, I am seeing a pattern here in the high Res models that looks very bad

 

[Stormsfury]

Is the FV3 high res reliable?

View attachment 161605

Haven't really relied on it for winter weather, but I really use it during thunderstorm season. The FV3-1KM is like the GFS version of the NAM 3km

 

[ChattaVOL]

Y’all should have know that since Chattanooga was suppose to get snow that we would see a large shift to change that.


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[MichaelJ]

Not had any experience with it but the 2.5km NDFD looks a littler better than the NAM 3km

 

[weather nerd]

It’s wild how TV Mets these day literally run to social media to change their forecasts every time a model run occurs. Not sure what has happened to some of our locals, but they just aren’t as good as they used to be.

It's part of the never ending endless doom scrolling. If they change it enough back and forth, it becomes a blur (as most social media is) and aren't accountable for having to make a standard forecast and stick to it.

If you notice, they'll stay around the same on the news programs vs their graphical posts.

When social media engagement, clicks, and shares is the main thing pushing your personal and weather station's brand, you'd do it too.

 

[jrips27]

Not had any experience with it but the 2.5km NDFD looks a littler better than the NAM 3km

Unfortunately that’s the NWS forecast grid. It’s not a model. That’s their prediction of snow totals at the moment

 

[NBAcentel]

GFS looks like it’s gonna be warmer aloft imho

 

[Storm5]

Gfs is very similar to the 18z run for the midsouth . Big front end thump

 

[beanskip]

Gotta squint pretty hard to find changes in 0z GFS vs. 18z at 30 hours. Certainly nothing happening like the outlier NAM run.

 

[Storm5]

Huge hit midsouth on the gfs keeps extreme north alabama all frozen for the duration

 

[Tsappfrog20]

It’s not an app runner


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[Nerman]

Gotta squint pretty hard to find changes in 0z GFS vs. 18z at 30 hours. Certainly nothing happening like the outlier NAM run

It's been pretty consistent since 6z

 

[beanskip]

Status quo run by the GFS. Any differences are within the model margin of error.

 

[jrips27]

Cut totals a bit for those on I-20/I-85

 

[Twister]

Big time winter storm on GFS for upstate, 2-4" Snow transitioning to Sleet and a .10" ice. If winter lovers don't like that then you don't like winter storms

 

[1300m]

NAM and GFS at 48 hrs are just slightly different at H5.

Just some slight differences with the surface low.

 

[Rain Cold]

The amount of effort and time spent over two weeks to track what will end up being an inch of snow, maybe, is honestly astonishing.

It really should not be this hard or uncommon to get an inch of snow.

 

[MichaelJ]

All eyes will be on the EURO 00z run to see if any major changes have cropped up

 

[NCSNOW]

Gfs has almost come full circle from its previous day tracks. Still needs some work. Paultry with qpf across NC, compared to other guidance.

 

[NEGaweather]

Cut totals a bit for those on I-20/I-85View attachment 161615

Lots of sleet and freezing rain


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[CaryWx]

Gfs has almost come full circle from its previous day tracks. Still needs some work. Paultry with qpf across NC, compared to other guidance.

View attachment 161620

At a cursory glance that whole pic almost looks miller-B'ish with qpf

 

[Arcc]

The NAM is plain garbage, and anyone buying what it’s selling at this point should re-evaluate their thought processes.

Then you must not remember February 2015….

 

[ForsythSnow]

Tomorrow's make or break. The energy will be at verification so if we go the way we are, lights out for ATL and the CAD regions most likely.