WolfpackHomer91
Member
Hell Yea, Ride the Line Here in Mooresville / Davidson Area. That’s where you wanna be Jmo to get best rates if there will be any
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Hell Yea, Ride the Line Here in Mooresville / Davidson Area. That’s where you wanna be Jmo to get best rates if there will be any
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
MichaelJ
Member
I really hate to say this but the next hour will tell us what is up. If the EURO and CMC follow the NAM it is over for 90% of the board, if it follows the RGEM and Icon, most will have a storm of some type. Not sure I want to be counting on the ICON, just saying
JLL1973
Member
The GFS will especially be interesting. It hung on the longest to the more amped up solution including an inland track and it shares boundary conditions with the NAM. So if something is truly up, it should be heading back that direction one would think.
Man the Rgem has a lot of issues in the snow growth zone. This is under those dark blues. This is sleet/graupel verbatim 
NCSNOW
Member
The track is on north side now of my benchmark Pennsacola to savannah line off 0z rgem an icon.. minor wobble, but thars all it takes to push the mix line north. Instead of 10 miles south of this line in the sand, its now 30 miles north.
Pops
Member
I agree
tractor girl
Member
Is the FV3 high res reliable?
Pops
Member
Having said that.not gonna freak out YET wait and see tonight's runs and tomorrow
I wouldn't put a lot of faith in the HRW-FV3... but HRW-ARW typically does quite well with shallow cold air. Interesting to see it so cold.
MichaelJ
Member
Welp, the 00Z NBM shows only TN gets in the game for the most part and it is even puny there
I just gotta say north al is still in a good spot. From Bham north. Gosh I have a hard time buying that kind of a warm nose with this setup. I think from 278 north is still primo.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
It’s decent in detecting dynamical cooling in wintry setups, but it’s much more preferred in severe setups over winter
njbarrineau
Member
Do you know why the leap northwest was such a large one? I know to expect a northwest trend, but the NAM took our system on a whole northwest journey!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
whizrtr
Member
Wes Wyatt bumping totals down
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Finally had enough time to make a very general first guess map for this event. I can see this changing quite a bit as we get closer.
MichaelJ
Member
The 00Z 3km NAM, misses wide left, I am seeing a pattern here in the high Res models that looks very bad
Stormsfury
Member
Haven't really relied on it for winter weather, but I really use it during thunderstorm season. The FV3-1KM is like the GFS version of the NAM 3km
ChattaVOL
Member
Y’all should have know that since Chattanooga was suppose to get snow that we would see a large shift to change that.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
MichaelJ
Member
Not had any experience with it but the 2.5km NDFD looks a littler better than the NAM 3km
It's part of the never ending endless doom scrolling. If they change it enough back and forth, it becomes a blur (as most social media is) and aren't accountable for having to make a standard forecast and stick to it.
If you notice, they'll stay around the same on the news programs vs their graphical posts.
When social media engagement, clicks, and shares is the main thing pushing your personal and weather station's brand, you'd do it too.
Unfortunately that’s the NWS forecast grid. It’s not a model. That’s their prediction of snow totals at the moment
GFS looks like it’s gonna be warmer aloft imho
Storm5
Member
Gfs is very similar to the 18z run for the midsouth . Big front end thump
beanskip
Member
Gotta squint pretty hard to find changes in 0z GFS vs. 18z at 30 hours. Certainly nothing happening like the outlier NAM run.
Storm5
Member
Huge hit midsouth on the gfs keeps extreme north alabama all frozen for the duration
Tsappfrog20
Member
It’s not an app runner
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Nerman
Member
It's been pretty consistent since 6z
beanskip
Member
Status quo run by the GFS. Any differences are within the model margin of error.
Cut totals a bit for those on I-20/I-85
Twister
Member
Big time winter storm on GFS for upstate, 2-4" Snow transitioning to Sleet and a .10" ice. If winter lovers don't like that then you don't like winter storms
NAM and GFS at 48 hrs are just slightly different at H5.
Just some slight differences with the surface low.
Just some slight differences with the surface low.
The amount of effort and time spent over two weeks to track what will end up being an inch of snow, maybe, is honestly astonishing.
It really should not be this hard or uncommon to get an inch of snow.
It really should not be this hard or uncommon to get an inch of snow.
MichaelJ
Member
All eyes will be on the EURO 00z run to see if any major changes have cropped up
NCSNOW
Member
Gfs has almost come full circle from its previous day tracks. Still needs some work. Paultry with qpf across NC, compared to other guidance.
NEGaweather
Member
At a cursory glance that whole pic almost looks miller-B'ish with qpf
Then you must not remember February 2015….