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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

Well Google AI even says NAM hadms a over amplification bias in mid range and thats what your seeing here on steriods
 
SD said:
It's gotta be some kind of feedback from gulf/Mx convection going towards the trough and over amplifying right? I can't see jumping the entire state of Ms beyond realistic
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Let's hope but you know as well as I, we can't just toss it because it's the NAM. This is certainly a possibility....naw can't happen right? Right?!
 
SD said:
It's gotta be some kind of feedback from gulf/Mx convection going towards the trough and over amplifying right? I can't see jumping the entire state of Ms beyond realistic
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I’m at the gym, it’s leg day, can’t get a great look now, but agree it’s a rather extreme response for what looked like modest deepening of the desert wave at 5j
 
KyloG said:
It is hilarious… we probably should guessed this would happen. Doh 😣
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I mean...I did haha. I've thought this was going to happen all along. Once these kind of trends start, if it is real (obviously will be interesting to see if RGEM picks up on this to this degree) it probably will keep going almost until go time. Boston could still be in play if this keeps going lol.
 
Chazwin said:
I understand the NAM has for the most done a good job of finding issues in thermals, but do you really think we can give this track of the low that the NAM and HRRR any real weight when other modeling has not come close to showing anything like it. A NW trend is one thing, but these two models look like there trying to turn a southern slider into a cutter or Apps runner when nothing we’ve seen in the H5 set up supports it.
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Yes I do. And have. It may not happen, but I'm looking at H5 not the surface. If the H5 northern stream interactions go the way the NAM is showing, I definitely believe it and I posted about this earlier. It all starts to unravel with increased wind aloft eroding the insitu CAD allowing the wedge front to erode and the surface low to track inland along it. We're going down a rabbit hole that may not be this deep - but it also may be. Interesting 12-24 hours of model runs for sure coming up.
 
Metwannabe said:
Let's hope but you know as well as I, we can't just toss it because it's the NAM. This is a certainly a possibility....naw can't happen right? Right?!
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Nothing really has changed in a significant way with the NAM other than the h7 and 85 features but they magically go 750 miles NW? Seems weird
 
1300m said:
This is pretty wild.
View attachment 161559
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Yeah, was just looking at that. The thing that really stands out is how the sheared out piece of the baja wave is so strong and overwhelming, and "ridgy". That's the question - is the NAM handling this piece correctly. If it is, it's bad news across the board....i.e. is the high resolution model able to pick up on this majestic subtropical ridging coming out of the baja wave. If it is, gotta keep that in the memory bank for future setups like this

3Dxfyr5.gif
 
1300m said:
Yes I do. And have. It may not happen, but I'm looking at H5 not the surface. If the H5 northern stream interactions go the way the NAM is showing, I definitely believe it and I posted about this earlier. It all starts to unravel with increased wind aloft eroding the insitu CAD allowing the wedge front to erode and the surface low to track inland along it. We're going down a rabbit hole that may not be this deep - but it also may be. Interesting 12-24 hours of model runs for sure coming up.
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Interesting so the wedge could potentially backfire on us because the winds aloft would create a baroclinic boundary along the retreating wedge that the low pressure would then ride. Always finding new ways to fail.
 
Here, sitting two counties south of Memphis, TN during this court battle and trying to figure out who the hell is about to have custody of this damn snow storm/ rain line! I’ll tell you one difference between weather people and people who don’t really care about the weather until they have too. THEY, go to the grocery store when an event is approaching…us weather people go to the liquor store. 🤷🏻‍♂️🤣
 
We’re gonna need to see some other models with 0z data. Not sure if the NAM model is out to lunch or if the observational data has changed! Hurry up 0z Euro!
 
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1300m said:
Yes I do. And have. It may not happen, but I'm looking at H5 not the surface. If the H5 northern stream interactions go the way the NAM is showing, I definitely believe it and I posted about this earlier. It all starts to unravel with increased wind aloft eroding the insitu CAD allowing the wedge front to erode and the surface low to track inland along it. We're going down a rabbit hole that may not be this deep - but it also may be. Interesting 12-24 hours of model runs for sure coming up.
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Thank you. You’ve obviously studied this as a meteorologist and I certainly respect that. I just don’t remember ever seeing a model be so different from all other modeling so close to a storm starting and be right.
 
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