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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

Watching CBS affiliate out of Atlanta live stream on YouTube. Said they are using the GRAF model, calling 3-5 inches north of city with some mixing for my backyard late in the event (more icing threat along I-20 and through downtown). Still some adjustments to come, but (not sure who this meteorologist is) said he feels good about the amounts as of now.

—30—
 
packfan98 said:
I understand the sentiment. I’d rather look at everything and look for trends and consensus while weighting different models more at certain lead times. We are on a weather forum. That’s what we do.

Some of yall say not to look at models more than 5 days out, and then we are not supposed to look at globals less than 2 days out. You miss out on all of this fun tracking that way.
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I always love the sentiment that we should just throw out all the models at zero hour, too, as if right before the storm isn’t when they should be the most accurate. I understand the sentiment about ground truth and OBS at that point, but modeling has a role to play all the way through the storm.
 
superjames1992 said:
I always love the sentiment that we should just throw out all the models at zero hour, too, as if right before the storm isn’t when they should be the most accurate. I understand the sentiment about ground truth and OBS at that point, but modeling has a role to play all the way through the storm.
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Yeah, well, everyone starts the laser like focus about their own backyard. Whatever model fits their narrative, that's the model of all models. Same thing every winter threat.
 
I used to always say, “Friends don’t let friends get HRRR’d / RAP’d.” Unless there’s been improvements I’m unaware of, neither of these models are particularly useful on the periphery of their range, IMO, and since they run so often you’ll get plenty of solutions you like and plenty you hate. IIRC, the HRRR in particular had a strange tendency to both overamp systems and at the same time also be too cold (at the surface, at least), though that may be out of date at this point.

Man, the 18z AI Euro is amazing looking for the NC Piedmont. 👀
 
My latest forecast thoughts, now with snow totals:

zW5B1n0.png
 
superjames1992 said:
I used to always say, “Friends don’t let friends get HRRR’d / RAP’d.” Unless there’s been improvements I’m unaware of, neither of these models are particularly useful on the periphery of their range, IMO, and since they run so often you’ll get plenty of solutions you like and plenty you hate. IIRC, the HRRR in particular had a strange tendency to both overamp systems and at the same time also be too cold (at the surface, at least), though that may be out of date at this point.

Man, the 18z AI Euro is amazing looking for the NC Piedmont. 👀
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Yep definitely an up tic in QPF. Nice to see this going back up on models today.
 
superjames1992 said:
I used to always say, “Friends don’t let friends get HRRR’d / RAP’d.” Unless there’s been improvements I’m unaware of, neither of these models are particularly useful on the periphery of their range, IMO, and since they run so often you’ll get plenty of solutions you like and plenty you hate. IIRC, the HRRR in particular had a strange tendency to both overamp systems and at the same time also be too cold (at the surface, at least), though that may be out of date at this point.

Man, the 18z AI Euro is amazing looking for the NC Piedmont. 👀
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Folks, I am very surprised at how steady the Euro AI has been leading up to this event. It has had the same general idea for days now and is locked in. If this storm verifies, as this model has shown, this will be our go-to guidance for the remainder of the winter.
 
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