Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
Holy crap! If I was in N MS/AL, I’d be giddy! Big jump in snow totals!4 run Euro trend
View attachment 161496
Holy crap! If I was in N MS/AL, I’d be giddy! Big jump in snow totals!4 run Euro trend
View attachment 161496
Yep…north AL smash jobThat 18z Euro/EPS run looks exactly like what the Euro AI has been telling us all week.
That long finger of snow pointing right at us!
I thought we don't look at globals this close?Good thing we don’t pay any attention to the globels at this point![]()
Will be up in Winston county. I like that area for ripping massive fattiesYep…north AL smash job
I say it’s really 50/50 someone sees 10” west of i77 in NC. Should know more after 0z if we need to increase amounts further.
I would look at globals until 24 hrs of onset. I would look at the shorter range hi-res models for upper air temperature trends until then.I thought we don't look at globals this close?
EPS trend
View attachment 161512
Their forecasts are auto generated , at least the local ones with little human input for each zip code.The weather channel just took any accumulations out for Marietta. Anyone know why?
I understand the sentiment. I’d rather look at everything and look for trends and consensus while weighting different models more at certain lead times. We are on a weather forum. That’s what we do.I thought we don't look at globals this close?
I'm not sure if I'd take TWC seriously.The weather channel just took any accumulations out for Marietta. Anyone know why?
Sure. It's good in the fact that the more we see the northern stream dig in the more we are going to see an increase in cyclonic/positive vorticity advection and geopotential height falls - both things that result in increased lift and moisture delivery into the region. It could be bad if these processes result in the height field over the southeastern U.S. becoming more tilted allowing for stronger southwesterly winds aloft that result in additional warm air advection processes that produce a warm layer anywhere in the atmosphere and turn over all the snow to sleet. In Central NC and down towards Atlanta too these areas are already right on the line. A 2-4" snow could quickly turn into 1" of sleet if this happens. It's a precarious situation and the ceiling is only so high before we go over the edge and have a sleet storm. Notice how the surface low is already trending stronger on the ECMWF, which could pull the low further inland also aiding in additional WAA processes and pushing the coastal front closer.Can you explain when it won’t be a good thing?
Good analysis. Just wondering, however, it looks to my untrained eye that as the northern stream dives deeper, it has not affected the tilt any due to the north to south angle it is diving in, maybe even making it more positive. I have no idea if more of it would finally drive it more negative or not, but just an observation.Sure. It's good in the fact that the more we see the northern stream dig in the more we are going to see an increase in cyclonic/positive vorticity advection and geopotential height falls - both things that result in increased lift and moisture delivery into the region. It could be bad if these processes result in the height field over the southeastern U.S. becoming more tilted allowing for stronger southwesterly winds aloft that result in additional warm air advection processes that produce a warm layer anywhere in the atmosphere and turn over all the snow to sleet. In Central NC and down towards Atlanta too these areas are already right on the line. A 2-4" snow could quickly turn into 1" of sleet if this happens. It's a precarious situation and the ceiling is only so high before we go over the edge and have a sleet storm. Notice how the surface low is already trending stronger on the ECMWF, which could pull the low further inland also aiding in additional WAA processes and pushing the coastal front closer.
View attachment 161519View attachment 161520
Low-level 925 mb temps are already precariously on the line from ATL to RDU.
View attachment 161521
You are correct. It’s so far happening far enough east it hasn’t significantly worsened the thermal profile. But I do think there is a point where it will, whether we get there or not hopefully we never find out.Good analysis. Just wondering, however, it looks to my untrained eye that as the northern stream dives deeper, it has not affected the tilt any due to the north to south angle it is diving in, maybe even making it more positive. I have no idea if more of it would finally drive it more negative or not, but just an observation.
When will the system get starting in the west and if it over performs the model guidance for there could it translate eastward or not really?
441 between Cherokee and Gatlinburg will be closed for the foreseeable future. A foot at Newfound Gap with no shot to get above freezing until late next weekend when they could hit 33 for a brief momentNWS Raleigh increased there totals!!![]()
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Decrease on the RDU mean for plumes
View attachment 161398
Here you go…18z Euro AI seems to have a little stronger precip further north from the crude maps. I can’t wait to get more info from @KyloG shortly.
Euro AI has bumped a small tick warmer & north its last 2 runs. Can see more NStream trough dropping in on this last run with some east coast height rises18z Euro AI seems to have a little stronger precip further north from the crude maps. I can’t wait to get more info from @KyloG shortly.
Pretty big expansion south of ATL in that last panel
It got warmer than 18z however, not a good thing.Hrrr holding serve
View attachment 161535