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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

If someone were to over perform it would be western NC (Asheville, Statesville, Elkin). Instead of 3-7” it would be 7-12” with just a few more trends north with that precip lick. 👅
 
wow said:
That long finger of snow pointing right at us!
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This storm is coming for us!! lol, let's go! Euro and RGEM have us as all snow so we use every bit of that qpf. If we can stay consistent overnight with that, we can fight the mixing line tomorrow if that northern stream energy just decides to dive even further.
 
I would still caution about the euro not doing well with warm air advection, but it’s certainly a step in the right direction, the height field was more suppressed in tandem with the digging northern stream. Just need to be careful and not lose that suppressed height field with more digging otherwise the risk of a low running poleward increases and WAA. But if we can keep the field suppressed and get some more digging in tandem, you start getting boom scenarios
 
Snowgirl67 said:
The weather channel just took any accumulations out for Marietta. Anyone know why?
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Their forecasts are auto generated , at least the local ones with little human input for each zip code.

I'd follow what the NWS says, not those guys. They're in it for the ad revenue.
 
Spurs up said:
I thought we don't look at globals this close?
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I understand the sentiment. I’d rather look at everything and look for trends and consensus while weighting different models more at certain lead times. We are on a weather forum. That’s what we do.

Some of yall say not to look at models more than 5 days out, and then we are not supposed to look at globals less than 2 days out. You miss out on all of this fun tracking that way.
 
mydoortotheworld said:
Can you explain when it won’t be a good thing?
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Sure. It's good in the fact that the more we see the northern stream dig in the more we are going to see an increase in cyclonic/positive vorticity advection and geopotential height falls - both things that result in increased lift and moisture delivery into the region. It could be bad if these processes result in the height field over the southeastern U.S. becoming more tilted allowing for stronger southwesterly winds aloft that result in additional warm air advection processes that produce a warm layer anywhere in the atmosphere and turn over all the snow to sleet. In Central NC and down towards Atlanta too these areas are already right on the line. A 2-4" snow could quickly turn into 1" of sleet if this happens. It's a precarious situation and the ceiling is only so high before we go over the edge and have a sleet storm. Notice how the surface low is already trending stronger on the ECMWF, which could pull the low further inland also aiding in additional WAA processes and pushing the coastal front closer.
ecmwf-deterministic-namer-vort500_z500-1736359200-1736553600-1736553600-40.gifecmwf-deterministic-se-mslp_anom-1736359200-1736586000-1736586000-40.gif
Low-level 925 mb temps are already precariously on the line from ATL to RDU.
ecmwf-deterministic-se-t925-1736359200-1736542800-1736618400-40.gif
 
1300m said:
Sure. It's good in the fact that the more we see the northern stream dig in the more we are going to see an increase in cyclonic/positive vorticity advection and geopotential height falls - both things that result in increased lift and moisture delivery into the region. It could be bad if these processes result in the height field over the southeastern U.S. becoming more tilted allowing for stronger southwesterly winds aloft that result in additional warm air advection processes that produce a warm layer anywhere in the atmosphere and turn over all the snow to sleet. In Central NC and down towards Atlanta too these areas are already right on the line. A 2-4" snow could quickly turn into 1" of sleet if this happens. It's a precarious situation and the ceiling is only so high before we go over the edge and have a sleet storm. Notice how the surface low is already trending stronger on the ECMWF, which could pull the low further inland also aiding in additional WAA processes and pushing the coastal front closer.
View attachment 161519View attachment 161520
Low-level 925 mb temps are already precariously on the line from ATL to RDU.
View attachment 161521
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Good analysis. Just wondering, however, it looks to my untrained eye that as the northern stream dives deeper, it has not affected the tilt any due to the north to south angle it is diving in, maybe even making it more positive. I have no idea if more of it would finally drive it more negative or not, but just an observation.
 
Stormdoc said:
Good analysis. Just wondering, however, it looks to my untrained eye that as the northern stream dives deeper, it has not affected the tilt any due to the north to south angle it is diving in, maybe even making it more positive. I have no idea if more of it would finally drive it more negative or not, but just an observation.
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You are correct. It’s so far happening far enough east it hasn’t significantly worsened the thermal profile. But I do think there is a point where it will, whether we get there or not hopefully we never find out.
 
Tagat said:
When will the system get starting in the west and if it over performs the model guidance for there could it translate eastward or not really?
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Basically starts out here tomorrow we'll see. Our forecast has gone up a little

Arkansas appears to be the early epicenter other than the big if DFW is cold enough
 
Tsappfrog20 said:
NWS Raleigh increased there totals!!
7e5ad9b9db19d14c1cc3799f39c47f78.png



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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441 between Cherokee and Gatlinburg will be closed for the foreseeable future. A foot at Newfound Gap with no shot to get above freezing until late next weekend when they could hit 33 for a brief moment
 
packfan98 said:
18z Euro AI seems to have a little stronger precip further north from the crude maps. I can’t wait to get more info from @KyloG shortly.
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Euro AI has bumped a small tick warmer & north its last 2 runs. Can see more NStream trough dropping in on this last run with some east coast height rises

bXbenEP.gif
 
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