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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

Cad Wedge NC said:
Folks, I am very surprised at how steady the Euro AI has been leading up to this event. It has had the same general idea for days now and is locked in. If this storm verifies, as this model has shown, this will be our go-to guidance for the remainder of the winter.
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I don’t see how it could verify when all the hi res models say different.
 
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TheBatman said:
Why is everyone taking so much stock in the NAM. This model hasn’t been reliable for a long time.
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The NAM has done really well up my way the last 2-3 years, a lot of times it will be the first to show snow for me and the GFS and Euro have to catch up! We can’t just toss the NAM
 
superjames1992 said:
I used to always say, “Friends don’t let friends get HRRR’d / RAP’d.” Unless there’s been improvements I’m unaware of, neither of these models are particularly useful on the periphery of their range, IMO, and since they run so often you’ll get plenty of solutions you like and plenty you hate. IIRC, the HRRR in particular had a strange tendency to both overamp systems and at the same time also be too cold (at the surface, at least), though that may be out of date at this point.

Man, the 18z AI Euro is amazing looking for the NC Piedmont. 👀
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I do agree about the HRRR. It’s purpose is strictly for near term now-casting. The one thing it’s useful for beyond that is picking up on WAA driven FGEN forced bands. It absolutely nailed the front end band that set up with the first January 2022 storm that set up over the SC Upstate and NC southern Foothills and Piedmont from about 24 hours out.
 
TheBatman said:
Why is everyone taking so much stock in the NAM. This model hasn’t been reliable for a long time.
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This really isn't true. Just back before Christmas, the NAM outperformed all other NWP guidance in Boston with a light snow event (for them) as it usually does in WAA / frontogenesis situations. It did seem to overdo the warm nose with the VA snow last weekend, so it, like everything else, isn't infallible. The NAM isn't as bad as it's made out to be in the short range, though. Truth be told, I use it basically every day for my operational forecasting 🤯.

Bottom line: when the NAM says thermals are an issue, I still listen. Especially when I've been concerned about it the whole time.
 
1300m said:
This really isn't true. Just back before Christmas, the NAM outperformed all other NWP guidance in Boston as it usually does in WAA / frontogenesis situations. It did seem to overdo the warm nose with the VA snow last weekend, so it, like everything else, isn't infallible. The NAM isn't as bad as it's made out to be in the short range, though. Truth be told, I use it basically every day for my operational forecasting 🤯.

Bottom line: when the NAM says thermals are an issue, I still listen. Especially when I've been concerned about it the whole time.
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at what range(s) though?
 
the NAM and the HRRR have the LP ticking north and intensifying. Look for that trend to continue. I think far north MS, extreme north AL and some of the NE AL foothills will get crushed. Southern TN extreme N GA and mountains will also do well. The rest of us in the mid-south will likely be cold rain with all the WAA.
 
1300m said:
This really isn't true. Just back before Christmas, the NAM outperformed all other NWP guidance in Boston with a light snow event (for them) as it usually does in WAA / frontogenesis situations. It did seem to overdo the warm nose with the VA snow last weekend, so it, like everything else, isn't infallible. The NAM isn't as bad as it's made out to be in the short range, though. Truth be told, I use it basically every day for my operational forecasting 🤯.

Bottom line: when the NAM says thermals are an issue, I still listen. Especially when I've been concerned about it the whole time.
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I understand the NAM has for the most done a good job of finding issues in thermals, but do you really think we can give this track of the low that the NAM and HRRR any real weight when other modeling has not come close to showing anything like it. A NW trend is one thing, but these two models look like there trying to turn a southern slider into a cutter or Apps runner when nothing we’ve seen in the H5 set up supports it.
 
DopplerWx said:
So we think the NAM and hr 48 HRRR has a better handle on the lp track than the gfs and euro? K.
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One thing I have noticed is that the hi res models suffer from something we deal with a lot in the software engineering world. They get into the weeds and lose sight of the bigger pattern sometimes. Just an opinion but maybe it is why the AI model has done a better job. It is looking at the bigger picture for influences.
 
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