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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

1300m said:
Yes I do. And have. It may not happen, but I'm looking at H5 not the surface. If the H5 northern stream interactions go the way the NAM is showing, I definitely believe it and I posted about this earlier. It all starts to unravel with increased wind aloft eroding the insitu CAD allowing the wedge front to erode and the surface low to track inland along it. We're going down a rabbit hole that may not be this deep - but it also may be. Interesting 12-24 hours of model runs for sure coming up.
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You have been saying it for days. If you and the long range NAM/HRRR beat EuroAI and all the other model suites I will sing your praises and look for your guidance going foward.
 
chapelhillwx said:
considering how the NAM sends the low so far NW, I’m surprised how cold it is at the sfc through the I20 corridor. Would’ve thought that track would mean the surface would be a blowtorch.
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That is dry airmass in place and that would allow surface temps to wet bulb down significantly.
 
Chazwin said:
Thank you. You’ve obviously studied this as a meteorologist and I certainly respect that. I just don’t remember ever seeing a model be so different from all other modeling so close to a storm starting and be right.
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The NAM has started model trends before at 00z when new data gets ingested. It certainly may be happening here. It may not be as dramatic in the end as what it is depicting now, or this could be the start of something that doesn't stop. Who knows.
 
The icon is still on board!!
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NCSNOW said:
Yall are good. Relax. American physics are off. Nam wrf sref gfs all programed by the same crowd

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Ima keep it real with ya I’m not sure we should be riding the icon over those models here. It’s kinda headed toward the nam but doesn’t have as sharp of a troughIMG_0674.gifIMG_0675.gif
 
SD said:
Before everyone gets too deep into this it's no where near the NAM
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Yup. I actually think it’s on to something with its depiction at 925. Very strong wedge in the low levels which makes sense here. Shows ZR in some of those areas with 925s that cold but man something is telling me lots and lots of sleet for someone IMG_3553.pngIMG_3552.png
 
jackendrickwx said:
Ima keep it real with ya I’m not sure we should be riding the icon over those models here. It’s kinda headed toward the nam but doesn’t have as sharp of a troughView attachment 161583View attachment 161585
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I take more comfort in the rgem and euro ai being steady at this point than the icon. I guess it’s nice to have it on our side too but we’d be tossing it if it wasn’t. Hopefully 0z ukie/euro/ai are steady as well
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yup. I actually think it’s on to something with its depiction at 925. Very strong wedge in the low levels which makes sense here. Shows ZR in some of those areas with 925s that cold but man something is telling me lots and lots of sleet for someone View attachment 161590View attachment 161591
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Yeah there's probably going to be a lot more sleet vs freezing rain than the pretty maps are showing
 
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