SimeonNC
Member
Doing some early now-casting, if you look at the radar, precip over Texas is a lot more robust than modelling had at this point.
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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie
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albertwilsonjr
Member
The spatial footprint of wintry precip types may have some similarities to an extent....and also, this storm may have some similarities with forcing moving strongly into N GA and into the upstate....but that storm was completely different at 500mb and it had a really good damming wedge (although it was weakened on its eastern flank). But at 500mb, it had a strong, closed upper low moving into the area. This one has a big moisture plume and ridging coming out of a sheared baja wave that then morphs into an elongated positive tilt trough across the eastern conus
Not the big amounts of course in the mountains …. But this doesn’t look unrealistic, 2-3” , 1/10 -1/4” ICE and Sleet. Anyone have H5 Charts for this ?
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Latest RAP looks awful
I was wrong and Batman was right about when the Euro run starts. I thought it was 15 min earlier
Means WAA is overperforming
SnowmasterATL
Member
Not good at all
Yeah…people are acting like the storm is falling apart but for somewhere like the Triangle the “disastrous” NAM shows a major winter storm…it just isn’t predominately snow. Don’t get me wrong, I want snow and not ice, but either way this very much looks like a moderate impact storm at a minimum (fortunately, it will hit over the weekend).
00z UK
NCSNOW
Member
Theres that narrow fingerband. Thats the prize in this dandruff flake cropduster storm.
The Wake County snow gradient is brutal on a lot of the modeling tonight.
It actually is overperforming. Note central Texas in earlier runs vs veri. Some areas went from -2C modeled to 0C 
albertwilsonjr
Member
Maybe if I squint really hard? Looks like just noise
Holy RAP... not good.. keep in mind RAP has the strongest/most advanced data assimilation of any of the models. It is also used for initializing the HRRR.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
I think what we're seeing here tonight is what happens when we don't have a true blocking high to the north like we had in 2022 and 2011. Having to rely on N/S interaction to provide our cold is very iffy and temperamental. We have cold air, yes, but without the blocking high any WAA is going to make in roads and yield rain or mixing. This storm shows how we can still score without one but it is a lot more difficult. As the low becomes stronger there is no blocker to keep it south or to provide a fresh cold feed.
Looking at the inland runners tonight I am reminded of the GFS runs a couple of days ago that kept taking the low through CAE. Maybe that was the right track all along.
Looking at the inland runners tonight I am reminded of the GFS runs a couple of days ago that kept taking the low through CAE. Maybe that was the right track all along.
NorthGaWinter4
Member
Is this just simply rain in NEGA?
Worth noting the GFS looks just like the Canadian models 
If that’s the option over ice storm, I’m in. If there is one thing that has me tripping, it’s ice storm. Thought that was pretty much off the table until saw the crazy these last couple hours.
How real is the “lights out” possibility for Atlanta at this stage? I was thinking worst case (snow/sleet lover) was quick change to IP and then just rain.
Dr. No is on the way in now let’s see where it goes. I’m hopeful after the Ukie we’ll see.
Euro run is actually already done. It’s not super cold but it’s a southern slider
Should we still be worried about this solution given the GEFS has 0 members showing this? Should we be looking at the 6z to see if this gains any sort of traction and the data just didn’t make it into the GEFS at 00z
Can already see where it’s more then likely struggling to see the in situ wedge especially in the Carolinas. still even warm and amped like it is, I don’t buy the sfc temps it shows, has a notorious history of not doing well with cold air damming given its issues with with the BL and BL mixing
A little worse on the Euro. Was slightly warmer 
ChattaVOL
Member
Chattanooga has went from 4-8 inches from NWS to now less an inch in their forecast…
It’s honestly pretty shocking that the local Mets and NWS have already flipped their forecast.
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It’s honestly pretty shocking that the local Mets and NWS have already flipped their forecast.
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That's not really what it says. The forecast said durning the day 1" - not counting the evening, their map from 1PM shows 2-3 for Chattanooga.
accu35
Member
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I think there lowering them for now to be safe then up them tomorrow if trends looks good.
Range still says 1-4
ChattaVOL
Member
Friday
Snow showers, possibly mixed with rain showers and freezing rain before 3pm, then rain and snow showers. High near 34. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
No new snow accumulation Friday night per the forecast.
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GSP expected
ok, enjoy your visit to the bottom of the cliff homie.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
answering my own question. guess FFC doesn't see any concern. They've updated the snow forecast but ZR is still from this afternoon. And nothing near "lights out". Highest is 0.25" and very low.
albertwilsonjr
Member
HREF puts down a large skating rink.
Oof. I know we’re not dead yet but jesus this sucks
Ouch, not good for some of north ga. I’m feeling greedy after the runs showing more.