Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

[VegasEagle]

This is not Ground Zilla 2.0 is it?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

If there’s good news, the hrrr has been strengthening confluence the last couple of runs and suppressing the height field a bit

 

[Darklordsuperstorm]

This is not Ground Zilla 2.0 is it?

View attachment images (78).mp4

 

[SnowwxAtl]

If there’s good news, the hrrr has been strengthening confluence the last couple of runs and suppressing the height field a bitView attachment 161648View attachment 161649

What does that mean downstream? More cold air right?

 

[Belle Lechat]

Friday

Snow showers, possibly mixed with rain showers and freezing rain before 3pm, then rain and snow showers. High near 34. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

No new snow accumulation Friday night per the forecast.


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[Ethan80963]

Anyone have the EPS, CMCE, and ukie ensembles?

 

[jrips27]

Anyone have the EPS, CMCE, and ukie ensembles?

Can help you with the first 2, but not the Ukie

 

[bouncycorn]

Oof. I know we’re not dead yet but jesus this sucksView attachment 161647

I got a lot of hate for putting out a map like this 2 days ago!!!

 

[jrips27]

Based on the 6z HRRR, Dallas is in trouble

 

[jrips27]

Based on the 6z HRRR, Dallas is in trouble

They still get a good hit of 4-6 inches

Overall through 24, I would say heights are slightly lower out ahead of our system? But the tilt looks a little worse

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Gonna be a better HRRR run vs 00z. Subtropical ridge isn’t nosing in as much, and the northern stream energy isn’t nosing into the trough as much either

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yeah slightly flatter this run, with a weaker warm nose nosing into TN/NAL. At least it didn’t go the other way more

 

[Ethan80963]

Latest sref backed off for clt

 

[SnowwxAtl]

Yeah slightly flatter this run, with a weaker warm nose nosing into TN/NAL. At least it didn’t go the other way more

It's a app runners though right?

 

[bouncycorn]

Latest SREFs

 

[jrips27]

Yeah slightly flatter this run, with a weaker warm nose nosing into TN/NAL. At least it didn’t go the other way more

Yeah didn’t really work out in North Georgia on that run but it looked like it should’ve been colder. Atlanta Metro all around an inch or 2 on this run. I’m going to bed pretty defeated by the trends tonight

 

[Myfrotho704_]

It's a app runners though right?

Yeah Although weaker

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[SnowwxAtl]

Yeah Although weaker
View attachment 161660

Fro, is the Globals missing that the HRRR is picking up on? They are worlds apart?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Fro, is the Globals missing that the HRRR is picking up on? They are worlds apart?

Yep. It’s hard to know if it’s some sort of mesoscale feature though. But it doesn’t help in this case.

 

[SnowwxAtl]

Yep. It’s hard to know if it’s some sort of mesoscale feature though. But it doesn’t help in this case.

On the the NAM to disappear the whole storm completely..lol Good night!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I might be wrong here, but this lighter depiction of the snow doesn’t make sense to me imo. Got a cascade of 850mb WAA knocking on the door with fgen and snow rates can barely surpass 0.2-0.3 per hour ? Press x doubt on that. I’m almost sure rates would undoubtedly be heavier

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Hrrr basically draws up I-85

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Interesting NAM run coming in. More positive tilt and a little bit stronger confluence off the EC. Exactly what we want. Need a couple runs worth of that though

 

[SnowwxAtl]

Interesting NAM run coming in. More positive tilt and a little bit stronger confluence off the EC. Exactly what we want. Need a couple runs worth of that though

I noticed that

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Just the slightest bit more of positive tilt makes a better difference at 850mb. I say ---- amplification. Today is the day we trend flat baby

 

[SnowwxAtl]

Just the slightest bit more of positive tilt makes a better difference at 850mb. I say ---- amplification. Today is the day we trend flat baby View attachment 161668

Atlanta misses the front end thumb I think.

 

[SnowwxAtl]

Atlanta, lights out!!! Geesh!!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

It’s still a ugly run but if we can buy ourselves some more ticks back to positive tilt and get the northern stream to press down just the slightest on the height field out ahead rather then digging into the trof itself we quickly get back out of a double digit lead. Not impossible

 

[SnowwxAtl]

 

[ncskywarn]

SREF actually went up a little bit for RDU.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This is one of the stronger in-situ wedges I’ve seen. Not classical at all. Not typical to get a in-situ wedge this strong, all the way down to the beaches

 

[SnowwxAtl]

This is one of the stronger in-situ wedges I’ve seen. Not classical at all. Not typical to get a in-situ wedge this strong, all the way down to the beaches View attachment 161672

Fro, I don't think 6z NAM was an App runners...Atlanta was ice skating rink! And yes you can see that strong In situ wedge. I believe it can get stronger.

 

[ncskywarn]

06Z NAM was definitely not an App runner the low emerged off the NC coast near or just North of Cape Hatteras.

 

[BufordWX]

Lots of energy with this system as it develops in Texas. Even some lightning around San Angelo.

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[SnowwxAtl]

That is very scary!

 

[SnowwxAtl]

06z ICON rolling in! Let's see where this goes everyone

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[WxBlue]

Here's my first swing at the forecast for this one. Probably a bit aggressive with mountain peaks of WNC, but slopes facing southwest should do well in an overrunning event + elevation + latitude will be huge. Outside mountains, my thoughts aren't much different than what are being echoed in here.