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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

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It’s pretty crazy how fast we managed to butcher this. This is barely WWA criteria for most of the board. Atlanta area Mets gonna look foolish for the early calls this morning. Most people I work with were talking about 3-5 inches
 
NWS GSP Thursday Morning AFD

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

KEY MESSAGES:

1) A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA FROM 7
AM FRI THROUGH 7 AM SAT. NO CHANGES/UPGRADES WILL BE MADE TO THE
WATCH AT THIS TIME.

2) MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT TOWARD MORE WARM AIR ALOFT AND
THEREFORE MORE MIXED PRECIP ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PART OF THE
AREA, AND MORE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY: 00Z GUIDANCE IS LARGELY STICKING TO ITS
RESPECTIVE CAMPS, WITH THE SLIGHTLY DRIER/COLDER/FARTHER SOUTH
ECMWF, THE QUITE WET AND WARM NAM (WARM AS IN "WARM NOSE"/MORE MIXED
PRECIP AND FREEZING RAIN), AND THE GFS/CANADIAN WHICH REPRESENT MORE
OF A COMPROMISE. HOWEVER, THE LATTER TWO GUIDANCE SOURCES SEEM TO BE
TRENDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE NAM CAMP, WHILE A CONSENSUS OF THE LAST
SIX HOURS OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS ALSO TEND TO PUSH A WARM
NOSE RATHER FAR NORTH INTO THE CWA BY 00Z SATURDAY. AS SUCH, WE'VE
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET DEVELOPING AS
FAR NORTH AS THE I-40 CORRIDOR IN THE NC PIEDMONT (AND SOUTHERN TIER
OR TWO OF MOUNTAIN ZONES), AS WELL AS A QUICKER TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS ADDS BOTH COMPLEXITY AND MORE UNCERTAINTY TO
THE FORECAST, AS THERE ARE NOW CONCERNS ABOUT SLEET CUTTING INTO
SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST NC AND NORTHEAST
GA. THESE ARE THE AREAS WHERE WE HERETOFORE HAVE BEEN MOST CONFIDENT
THAT A) ALL PRECIP WILL FALL AS WINTRY PRECIP AND B) LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE ADEQUATE FOR WINTER STORM
WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET (IF THE PRECIP WERE TO ALL FALL AS SNOW),
BUT MORE SLEET WOULD PLACE A RATHER LARGE FLY IN THAT OINTMENT.

MEANWHILE, CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST ACCUMS REMAINS MODERATE AT MOST
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DUE TO EITHER CONCERNS ABOUT
ADEQUATE LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP (MOST OF OUR NC ZONES OUTSIDE THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS), CONCERNS ABOUT MIXED PRECIP BEING THE PRIMARY
PRECIP TYPE (MUCH OF UPSTATE SC) AND/OR THE POTENTIAL THAT A FEW
AREAS MAY SEE A TRANSITION TO PLAIN OLD RAIN BEFORE ANY WARNING
CRITERIA IS REACHED (BECOMING AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKELANDS AND VICINITY). IN FACT, OUR CURRENT
OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT FEATURE WARNING CRITERIA SNOW OR ICE
OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWEST NC/NORTHEAST GA AREA (WHERE
WE ARE STILL FORECASTING GENERAL 3-6" TOTALS). HOWEVER, WITH THE
INCREASE IN FREEZING RAIN...AND A SWATH OF 0.1"-0.25" ICE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR, WE DO HAVE SOME LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH OF
I-85 IN THE UPSTATE AND GEORGIA THAT ARE CLOSE TO THE 1/4 INCH
THRESHOLD. ALL THIS IS TO SAY THAT...IN COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES, NO UPGRADES OR CHANGES TO THE WINTER STORM
WATCH WILL OCCUR ON THIS SHIFT. HAVING SAID THAT, THE POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF OUR AREA...PERHAPS THE GREATEST CONCERN
AT THIS POINT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BONAFIDE ICE STORM TO
MATERIALIZE FOR A PART OF THE AREA IF GUIDANCE TRENDS FURTHER TOWARD
A STRONGER/MORE ADVECTIVE/WETTER SOLUTION.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AND SKIES CLEAR QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT EARLY
SATURDAY, WITH A RESUMPTION OF DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM, WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO SATURDAY AND SAT
NIGHT. IN FACT, SAT NIGHT COULD PROVE TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST
NIGHTS OF THE SEASON OVER ANY LINGERING AREAS OF SNOWPACK.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
It’s pretty crazy how fast we managed to butcher this. This is barely WWA criteria for most of the board. Atlanta area Mets gonna look foolish for the early calls this morning. Most people I work with were talking about 3-5 inches
Click to expand...
Was at grocery store earlier. lots of people were talking about snow including in the ~5" range.. just another cry wolf scenario that hurts the meteorological community's reputation... and in turn hurts the general public.
 
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
243 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2025

ALZ011>015-017>021-024-026-092200-
/O.UPG.KBMX.WS.A.0001.250110T0600Z-250111T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBMX.WS.W.0001.250110T0600Z-250111T1200Z/
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-
Cherokee-Cleburne-Jefferson-St. Clair-
Including the cities of Oneonta, Double Springs, Fayette, Heflin,
Birmingham, Vernon, Anniston, Jasper, Centre, Gadsden, Hamilton,
Pell City, Moody, Hoover, and Sulligent
243 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected, mixing at times with sleet and
freezing rain. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 1 and 3
inches and ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Blount, Calhoun, Cherokee, Cleburne, Etowah, Fayette,
Jefferson, Lamar, Marion, St. Clair, Walker, and Winston Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
likely become slick and hazardous. Travel could be very difficult.
The hazardous conditions will impact the Friday morning commute.
Any lingering moisture will likely refreeze Friday evening through
early Saturday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

Persons should consider delaying all travel. Motorists should use
extreme caution if travel is absolutely necessary.

1736417515346.png
 
rburrel2 said:
Looks like 06z trended flatter and colder pretty much across the board.
Click to expand...
@Myfrotho704_ did mention about more of a positive tilt on the HRRR & NAM and that HRRR 850 confluence is stronger. Also mention that we could trend flatter today. Well, he was rooting for it. I just want the short range models to come around please and thank you. Maybe when he log back on he can clarify his thinking.
 
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rburrel2 said:
Put me in the camp of thinking this storm is going to over perform on ice accretion. Cold/dry airmass already in place and surface temps will verify closer to the RGEM if not colder I think. Atlanta/Augusta/Columbia will get hammered.
Click to expand...
Please let it be sleet though and these globals came in flatter hopefully less warm nose.
 
For the Upstate,

I think I'm overthinking this forecast. The fronto band is going to be snow. How much you get from that will be how much snow you get.
Right now, it looks to like it should lay down 2-4 inches. Maybe locally higher amounts where it temporarily stalls and what not.

Once that band passes it's going to be sleet, and that's ok. Temps stay in the upper 20's for the event. That's a banger of a storm.
 
rburrel2 said:
For the Upstate,

I think I'm overthinking this forecast. The fronto band is going to be snow. How much you get from that will be how much snow you get.
Right now, it looks to like it should lay down 2-4 inches. Maybe locally higher amounts where it temporarily stalls and what not.

Once that band passes it's going to be sleet, and that's ok. Temps stay in the upper 20's for the event. That's a banger of a storm.
Click to expand...
Those totals in NE GA and Upstate Sc will start increasing throughout the day today. Happens every time as the we get closer with the hi res.
 
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